Westminstenders: Promises, promises

[RedToothBrush]

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

hoooo fuckity sodding fuck.

Guardians Facebook page has this article from Feb 16

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1565087690

With this statement

^Cameron’s assault on Johnson came after the London mayor announced on Sunday that “after a huge amount of heartache” he would support a leave vote. In his weekly Daily Telegraph column, Johnson appeared to revive his support for a second referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU even if the UK voted to leave.

The suggestion by the London mayor shows the influence of Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director and former special adviser to Michael Gove, who has suggested that Cameron should use a leave vote to demand better terms from the EU.^

Some speculation thîs is BJ / Cummings' schedule to win 5 more years:

3 September: MPs return from recess

Even if the Opposition win a VoNC, unless they actually select a new PM, then BJ just needs to stay until ....

3 October: announce a GE

With the minimum 25 working days that brings us to .....

7 November: GE
When - barring total cockup - the effects of Brexit will be very minor

7 November: GE
When - barring total cockup - the effects of Brexit will be very minor

He is still not forced to win, because people don't just vote for Brexit. I would be delighted to see him lose his seat and see the Tories still fail to get a majority.

The thing is, what do we do? We talk to ourselves on these threads, we sign petitions, we go on demos.

OK we prep for no deal. What else?

It is his best chance for winning, but I agree it could just as easily be reduced Tory seats in another hung Parliament

However, with a majority of only 1, his govt will have difficulty surviving for long,
especially in say 6 months once the effects of Brexit begin to bite

He would want a GE at a time of his choosing, not after the economy has crashed.

*The thing is, what do we do? We talk to ourselves on these threads, we sign petitions, we go on demos.

OK we prep for no deal. What else?*

oops sorry - what Peregrina said, which was meant to be in bold. I mean, seriously, as normal people, what on earth can we actually do, apart from prepare ourselves and our immediate families as best we can?

Of course if he had a decent working majority he'd try to hang on for nearer the full 5 years,

but even that "Majority of 1" is only courtesy of the 10 DUP MPs

• and he won't like them round his neck making demands either

I take comfort from the local elections, where the Tories were absolutely thrashed. Normally there would be maybe a couple of hundred votes between the winning candidates and the losers; this time they were of the order of 600-800, on high turn outs, so it wasn't just Tories staying away, it was people voting for an alternative.

In a couple of cases I felt sorry for the losing Tory candidates because they were decent enough people, in other cases I thought it was not before time that they got cleared out, having been dead wood for 10 or more years.

He is still not forced to win, because people don't just vote for Brexit. I would be delighted to see him lose his seat and see the Tories still fail to get a majority.

Hence the big assault of things it's hard to argue with:

• 20,000 more police
• £1.8bn more for the NHS for the majority who don't follow the detail
• Being hard on criminals

All this is meant to appeal to the majority who don't follow politics too closely.

We can't prorogue Parliament for an election before Brexit though, as it's been legislated that it must be sitting in the run up to Brexit. So any GE can't be called until 1 Nov. 25 days after that is when there will be far more impact after no deal.

So if we can’t avoid No Deal, they need to avoid an election?

Boris needs 2/3 to call a GE, unless there is a successful VONC?

But Johnson is going around the country pretending he cares. Pretending he is giving money to various things that appeal to voters, like the an NHS.

We are also being sold the idea of No Deal as 1) what we wanted all along 2) promises of funding 3) lots of talk of departments to be given deadlines to make sure they are prepared for No Deal.

Michael Gove has been stepping up the rhetoric (as we predicted long ago) that the EU is the stumbling block to a Johnson deal. They are forcing it upon us, while simultaneously telling us the EU will suffer more than us.

This is not just the Johnson government going on an election footing, it is putting us on a war footing. They see this is the only way to unite the parts of the union they care about country. A war situation.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had out gas masks soon and have men in tin hats coming to our door to tell us about what the different sirens will mean.

This is Johnson's war, trying to channel Churchill and Thatcher

It's all been said before. And people are, apparently, stupid enough to go with it.

- 20,000 more police
He won't be magicking them up in the next 3 months. What could easily happen, is that a successor gets the credit. As indeed Johnson himself has busily claimed the credit for the Olympics, Boris bikes, Crossrail - absolutely all things started by his predecessors. And he has stayed shtumm on the money he's wasted.

If a PM wants a GE,
in practice it would be very difficult for an Opposition to prevent it, without looking chicken and sinking in the polls

Horror Show. (as the funders say )

@sturdyAlex
Tomorrow the BBC is doing a big info push on “No Deal” Brexit - or disorderly, to be more accurate. To keep them honest, I will be taking over the Best for Britain twitter feed, and scrutinising the claims that emerge.

Do follow @BestForBritain for a fun-filled, fact-packed day

Peter Foster@pmdfoster
We are in a tedious game of #Brexit 'he said, she said' now.

@michaelgove is professing upset that the EU will not negotiate.

The @EU_Commission says it is happy to talk any time.

But both on their own terms 1/

The UK wants to strain every sinew to get a deal, but only if the EU agrees to 'bin the backstop'

The EU wants a deal too, but only if the UK accepts needs for a coherent solution to Irish border, and a backstop til then. /2

Neither side is being especially sincere at the moment.

The @BorisJohnson government has taken a deliberate decision NOT to engage the EU on anything close to what might be a negotiable deal. Overtures were made. They were rebuffed in favour of 'bin the backstop' /3

So a bit rich for @michaelgove to be weeping crocodile tears over the EU "intransigence".

If you were cynical, you might think that this is just blame-game strategy.

Gove needs to be SEEN to be trying. There is not actual intent on a deal /4

But equally, you could argue the EU asked for this by consistently refusing to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement - when everyone suspects, push come to shove, 1 minute to midnight - that the EU would move on, say time-limiting the Irish backstop, IF it delivered a deal/5

The question now is if that deal space is remotely accessible.

And if it was, would it go through Parliament.

Could the ERG 'spartans' say 'no' if a Boris cabinet backed it at 11th hour? /6

Or is all that - as I'm widely counselled by insiders on both sides - an academic question now, if all possible/relevant concessions are pre-determined insufficient?

Is the real question, given Johnson govt intent to go headlong to a 'no deal', whether Parliament can stop him?/7

Lots of fighting talk from No 10, but @BorisJohnson leads a minorty govt with a majority of one....against a Parliament with clear majority against a 'no deal'. Not saying it's easy, but the odds & the constitutional conventions must point to Parliament winning out. /8

But to answer these questions, we seem to have reached yet another Brexit 'phoney war'; lots of bravado but not so clear how everyone behaves when the hot metal is flying - currency markets & supermarkets in October panic. /9

For now, it is just willy-waving and blame-gaming.

No serious or detailed preparations for a new negotiation.

There had been some talk that at this stage we'd be busy renegotiation the Political Declaration to rule out a Customs Union. Not happened. /10

The issue now is that for talks to start, both sides will need to climb down.

Johnson from his 'bin the backstop' position.

The EU from it's no re-opening the Withdrawal Agreement. /11

Not immediately clear to me what the mechanism for that happening is.

Since Johnson Govt isn't apparently daring to test in Parliament what might move the deal.

And without that, why would the EU get off their sunloungers? /12

It's still early days, of course, but all signs point to more stand-off to come, and a ferociously bumpy autumn.

I am shortly about to take my own advice: take a holiday while you can. /13ENDS

As to what you can do after No Deal:

Remember that Brexit was a Tory project from start to finish

but remember too that Labour could at least have tried to stop No Deal, if not Brexit
So they were complicit

Remember this for the next several GEs

And people are, apparently, stupid enough to go with it.

They weren't in Scotland, and I don't think he got much joy from the Welsh farmers.

Some Leavers certainly will, because after all, they wanted to take back control from an unelected EU and are more than happy to have PM elected by a handful of Tories, threatening to ignore Parliament. Yet not a word from them.

Michal Gove blaming the EU today is just so embarrassing. I am currently abroad and just though I am not British, DH is and we speak english as a family and I just feel so embarrassed feeling the need to hold up a sign saying I am not British. People have asked us about Brexit with a mixture of amusement and pity.

Remember this for the next several GEs^
As mistigri, I think, posted up thread, future General Elections actually taking place, may not be a given, after October 31st.

"everyone suspects, push come to shove, 1 minute to midnight - that the EU would move on, say time-limiting the Irish backstop, IF it delivered a deal/W

I don't know where "everyone" got that idea
Of course, if NI didn't exist, the EU and UK would be negotiating a deal without a backstop

However, NI exists and Ireland demands the backstop stays
The EU won't abandon a member to get a future trade deal

So, does "everyone" know that Ireland is going to give in at the last moment ?

I think misti meant she didn't believe BJ would choose to call a GE soon after No Deal
Not that he would stop future GEs happening within the prescribed time limits

Even if the Opposition win a VoNC, unless they actually select a new PM, then BJ just needs to stay until ....
3 October: announce a GE

And this is absolutely why they should call a VoNC later rather than sooner. Not only does it give them extra time to plan what happens next - and hopefully avoid the need of a GE - but it stomps all over the Johnson/ Cummings plan to choose when the GE should be. If they haven't called a VoNC by 3rd Oct - then Jonson can't have his GE on the 7th November - or on any day - unless they hand it to him on a platter ... even Corbyn couldn't be stupid enough to agree to vote for a GE that would go over the leaving date