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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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tobee · 09/08/2019 23:48

I thought Johnson was playing a dangerous game, but obviously not. Sad

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 23:51

Torygraph reporting the Palace and Civil service in talks over a possible constitutional crisis which would expose the Queen if Johnson gets no confidence as refuses to quit (in other words the Queen is pissed at the suggestion by the PM's team - I'd love to be at their next meeting)

And the Times says they are preparing a Brexit bailout fund for companies who are going to collapse due to no deal. You know the ones that Brexiteers simultaneously think no deal won't damage. Mainly in construction and manufacturing apparently. So I guess we'll have no one to build all those houses we desperately need due to the housing crisis too. I suppose that sees off the NIMBY issue for Johnson.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
Westminstenders: Promises, promises
OP posts:
wherearemychickens · 10/08/2019 00:22

I work in the construction industry and it is constantly amazing to me that we're all ignoring Brexit at work. It's an enormous elephant in the room.

Tengel · 10/08/2019 00:28

It's sensible that the government is assisting with temporary measures to help with no deal.

After a few weeks these shouldn't be needed.

People would complain of the government wasn't doing anything, they can't win really!

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 00:30

Those wanting Soft Brexit / Remain, e.g. Hammond, are reportedly scheming,
but they are fragmented and divided,
probably unwilling to compromise enough to form the temporary cross-party alliance, which is our only hope

The hard Brexiters / No Dealers are prepared to make any sacrifice etc and / or are party loyalists

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 00:33

How many different bailout funds, supports, bungs ...
How much extra public spending on the NHS, police, armed forces ....

Then there are the prepping costs
and the expected export drop after No Deal

BJ doesn't need a Magic Money Tree; he needs a bloody forest !

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 00:45

"After a few weeks these shouldn't be needed. " 😂😂

Are you expecting new trade deals in those few weeks ? 🦄🦄
Say to replace 45% of our exports that go to the EU and about another 20% that use EU deals with other countries

It takes years to negotiate and approve trade deals

I expect No Deal Brexit to ramp up, with exporters being worst hit, cumulative effects
so that the Uk balance of payments / trade deficit after 6 months will be in a very sorry state,
At that stage, I expect a Sterling crash, food prices rising, more businesses moving abroad or going broke, unemployment rising ....

No, it won't be over "in a few weeks"
It'll just be starting

tobee · 10/08/2019 01:29

Hooray! I've been wondering where the Brexiteers have been all day! Then after midnight they come out!!

Hmmm Tengel??? Interesting username. Maybe it's Carrie herself 🤔

Tengel · 10/08/2019 01:53

The fact that we do so much trade already on WTO terms including with US and China should re-assure people.

Some people on here are acting as if the uk will be under siege. I can only think this is to try and frighten people, specifically into wanting to stop brexit.

When Nov 1 dawns and the world hasn't ended many will have egg in their faces.

LonelyTiredandLow · 10/08/2019 05:02

No one on this thread is saying 1st Nov will be any different to the day before - we know it will be around 2-3 months in that the worst will start to happen. We are all well aware why BoZo wants a GE in the days following 1st Nov when nothing much on the surface will have changed.

I have a friend who works with the homeless in Sheffield and he has had untold issues with Jared. He says there is a lot of sadness on the ground that people thought Clegg hadn't been honest; now they really know how bad it can get and LDems have been forgiven by most.

I'm off in the morning and won't have much internet, so will catch up in a few days. We will probably have promises of extra cash for farmers or car firms by then Wink

mathanxiety · 10/08/2019 05:22

Tengel, the UK trades with the US and China on WTO terms as part of the EU, not as 'the UK'.

FYI:
www.bbc.com/news/uk-45112872

TheElementsSong · 10/08/2019 07:35

Welcome, new username empty-slogan-spritzer and reciter-of-Brexit-myths! Flowers I look forward to your entirely novel and hitherto unconsidered insights into aspects of Europe and Brexit, which doubtless have never been covered on these threads before in the past 3 years, until you showed up to bestow enlightenment.

NoWordForFluffy · 10/08/2019 07:47

So exactly what is it that causes fervent BeLeavers to totally disregard what the government is actually saying about setting money aside to assist collapsing businesses post-no deal and insist that everything will be fiiiiiiiiiiine? If they're not dim / thick (because we're not allowed to question their intelligence when then fail to appreciate what's in front of them) what is it that causes the blinkers?

I'd love to read some sort of psychological study on this type of thing.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 08:46

"The fact that we do so much trade already on WTO terms including with US and China" 😂 😂

The EU has about 50 mutual trade agreements, on standards etc, with the USA !
The UK has been negotiating on rolling all these over

These are among about 800 various trade agreements that the EU has in addition to the 40 FTAs with 70 other countries
Which the Uk loses and has to renegotiate - a lot of work still to do.

This is the index for EU trade arrangements with all countries & regions:

ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/

Also status as of 2017 shown as map - more deals have been added since then:

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 08:54

fluffy from the most recent posts, I gather Leavers are expecting minor problems for a few weeks after Brexit,
after which it will all be 🦄🦄

BigChocFrenzy · 10/08/2019 08:59

FYI, I expect problems in the first few weeks will be manageable,
but will accumulate and ramp up as exports are badly hit, because - losing all those trade deals !

So that after 6 months even Leavers won't be able to claim Brexit went well,
hence BJ, Raab, Cummings & gang already blaming the EU and Remainer sabotage

  • getting their excuses in early
Hoooo · 10/08/2019 09:01

Time to change £ to €?

NoWordForFluffy · 10/08/2019 09:08

Some don't even seem to think there's going to be any disruption at all though.

Logically, though, a few weeks' disruption wouldn't lead to multiple businesses failing as a successful business should be able to weather a few weeks. So there's still a logic disconnect going on with what's being said by government and spouted by BeLeavers. It's very odd.

borntobequiet · 10/08/2019 09:12

Just posting to keep on the thread...am trying to limit thinking about Brexit related issues and focus on enjoying everyday life. Still pretty much zero conversation or awareness at work, one of the two people I used to talk to is Labour and a (possibly former) JC fan who insisted they were playing “the long game”. Among friends and neighbours the topic is avoided so the only people I discuss Brexit with properly are family, though I did have a good reciprocal rant with the man in the bookshop last week.
I’m just in a state of shock at the crippling political autoimmune disease that is destroying our society and civil life. I still don’t know where it came from or why it took hold. Yes, there were/are deep flaws, injustice, division, inefficiencies and callousness in in society but that it should come to this baffles me. There seems to be no resilience at all. I know that historically sometimes diseases appeared, wreaked havoc and then vanished. It seems like that sort of thing...or a civil war so far without weapons, and with no discernible cause.
Oddly enough, have had no power outages here (yet) despite them happening fairly frequently due to the relatively exposed and remote location.

Freefrops · 10/08/2019 09:17

I am reading this thread out to DH who is closely linked to the import export industry. He thinks that exports will boom because the £1 has tanked and products will be cheaper. But then I read out

Freefrops · 10/08/2019 09:18

OOPs MN has gone mad

Then I read out @BigChocFrenzy’s post and he said oh yeahhhh as if it had never occurred to him.

🤦‍♀️

There are so many people with heir heads in the sand...

bellinisurge · 10/08/2019 09:25

Stalin used to talk about wreckers when a grand plan FOR THE GREATER GOOD all went to shit at first contact with reality.
I imagine BeLeavers already have that play ready to engage.

phpolly · 10/08/2019 09:29

.

placemats · 10/08/2019 09:31

so that after 6 months even Leavers won't be able to claim Brexit went well, hence BJ, Raab, Cummings & gang already blaming the EU and Remainer sabotage - getting their excuses in early

I see this on Twitter already. Great post BCF

Hoooo · 10/08/2019 09:31

Yep...

Despite us and other remainers and the dreaded experts telling everyine hos badit will be, it'll be OUR fault for not believing enough.

Bojo has lost the plot. Totally. He actually thinks this will be his churchill moment...

(Shakes head in wonder)

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