Westminstenders: Promises, promises

[RedToothBrush]

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

Winter elections are only ever held in crisis situations in the UK.

Steve Bullock putting a Brexit Party MEP to his place over what is really being ignored since the Brexit result

• Rupert Lowe is a Brexit Party MEP for the West Midlands.
• In a response to a tweet posted this morning by the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme that was mentioning that Jeremy Corbyn had been urging the most senior civil servant in the country to intervene to prevent a no-deal Brexit during a general election campaign, Rupert Lowe tweeted a question (to Corbyn? to the BBC? to the Today Programme?): “Ignoring the largest democratic mandate in our history isn’t ‘anti-democratic’?”
• The 2016 EU Referendum was not the largest democratic mandate in UK history.
• In the 1992 General Election, 33,614,074 people voted. In the 2016 EU Referendum 33,577,342 people voted.

BREXIT PARTY

Ignore

Ignore, you have the bloody gall to say

Ignore

5 million people have had their lives held in limbo for years because of that result

Britain has devoted 3 years of government almost entirely to it, to the exclusion of everything else. It has spent billions and the economy has lost billions because of it

Businesses have moved – or made plans to move, laid people off – or are planning to, spent fortunes in preparation for No-Deal contingencies

Every local council has spent time and money on it.

The NHS has been trying to work out how to keep staff, and ensure medicine and medical equipment supplies

Across the EU, every Member State has had to prepare their citizens and businesses for Brexit, and work out how to offset their losses and, in some cases, stop their roads being turned into lorry parks. (The UK has turned roads into lorry parks

The media’s output has been overwhelmingly focussed on it. The lies and misinformation have changed media and politics possibly forever

The police and security services have been trying to make sure essential cooperation can continue

Supermarkets usually in competition are asking to be allowed to cooperate to make sure there is enough food

The Government has been trying to work out how to make sure how to keep school dinners going, for fuck’s sake

Don’t you come complaining that the result is being ignored

The only ignoring that has been going on has been Brexit’s cheerleaders ignoring what an almighty fuck up the whole wretched thing has been since the start

Ignore in-fucking-deed !

and

@paullewismoney
UK does not have enough boats to protect its waters from fishing piracy post Brexit

UK coastline is 7723 miles. 12 vessels. That makes one vessel for every 644 miles

I still don’t know where it came from or why it took hold

The trouble with abusive sods like extreme brexists, is that giving in to them always makes them more abusive. It's not even a metaphor now as we appear to have a DV perpetrator 'leading' our exective, and several elected bp men have criminal previous for it.

The 'you made me do it' trope looks like it's the government mantra now.

If they and their crumby brexit were the subject of a relationship thread on the mumsnet, we all know what the universal advice would be.

The item on Channel 4 news about women voters detesting the current incumbent at No 10, got me wondering how many of the 5m plus who have been disenfranchised in the ref, GEs and EU election, are women. I suspect the majority are women.

It does make it more important for those of us women with a precious vote to use it.

freefrops The pound sank 12% after the referendum and that hasn't helped exports much - and we still have all the EU trade agreements

That's because of a mix of factors:

• lower pound making some imports of raw materials & components - often in dollars or euros - more expensive

• Uncertainty - especially over the last few months, overseas cutomers, especially in the EU, have been drying up because they don't know what tariffs or NTBs (non-tariff barriers) we will have after brexit.

• UK business just not being able to produce more goods, at least of a type & quality that overseas customers want, even at a lower price

That would take at least a lot of investment, which has sunk to 1/30 of the pre-ref level due to uncertainty

AFTER Brexit, (thanks for info from R North blog) just for exports to the EU:

(complications too on losing EU trade deals with the rest of the world)

• UK goods will come under customs supervision when they enter the EU, and can only be released for circulation by an importer, who must be an entity established and resident in the EU

the change to requiring goods to be placed in charge of an EU-resident importer represents a major barrier to trade, and an active disincentive to EU buyers.

e.g. while currently a UK exporter to the EU retains legal responsibility for standards conformity,
post-Brexit the importer becomes liable, with significant cost and legal implications

for the 20 percent or so of products where there are no EU harmonised standards, and mutual recognition of standards falls away,

UK enterprises will suddenly find themselves having to conform with a raft of local standards that many of them didn't even know existed.
And without that knowledge, they are hardly in a position to prepare.

Anti-democratic?
In 2017 13,636,684 people voted for:
"The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit."
12,877,918 people voted for:
We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable option and, if needs be, negotiate transitional arrangements to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy."

I make that over 30 million people voting against a disorderly brexit.

"no deal" alone is Anti-democratic, let alone cummings threatened shenanigans.

It does make it more important for those of us women with a precious vote to use it.

But how? This is my constituency in 2017:
Labour: 63.5%
Conservative: 28.0%
UKIP: 4.5%
Lib Dem: 2.2%
Green: 1.2%

The Remain alliance won’t target this seat. Even if they did, the best they could do is reduce the Labour majority. At worst, they’d hand the seat to the Tories. I feel completely impotent - I could have my little protest about dithery Labour, but what’s the point? And yes, I’m furious about being told that I voted for Leave in 2017, but I am not going to reward the fucking Tories for screwing the country over in an attempt to save their party.
(Sorry, rant over now )

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy. But that makes me more depressed. I am going to Aldi now to stock up on French wine

Queen of Thorns - I think if I were in your constituency with the Labour vote having to severely plummet before they lost their majority letting the Tories in, and neither the Greens nor LibDems having any chance of getting elected, I would take a punt on either of the last two.

As with Farage's mob in its UKIP disguise - they didn't win any seats at the last election, but the BBC justified wall to wall Faragists on QT because they had 12% of the vote share.By the same token any Remain vote counts in that case. Come the GE there might also be 'Vote swap' websites up and running.

And exactly how do we women use our vote?

Those of us who feel disenfranchised.

Love your honest post Queenofthorns

If you can’t be honest here, placemats, where can you? As a sizeable chunk of the population of this country has apparently taken leave of their senses, it can be difficult to be honest in ‘real life’. That perfectly nice person sitting next to you at the bus stop might turn out to be a frothing Brexist if you say the wrong thing, so I think most people just don’t say anything unless they’re pretty certain of the opinions of the people they’re with!

agreed Queen - my main reason for wanting to avoid an election at all costs is that in my tory/labour marginal seat voting for the remain alliance just means that the tories will squeak back in. And I cannot stand the thought of that tory shitstain smug bastard getting back in another time. (He is a leave backer in a remain constituency. Remember how undemocratic remain mps in leave constituencies are??? no one cares about the leavers with remain constituencies though - fucking hypocrites) But I can't stand the thought of being told that a vote for labour (really a vote purely to get rid of said tory shitstain) is a vote in support of brexit.

Yesterday two separate people in separate conversations said 'but brexit isn't going to happen' to me. One of them even refuses to believe at all that in the event of brexit anything will materially change. Both are teachers. One has a small child. How can educated people - with daily experience of the precarious lives the most vulnerable lead - and with vulnerable dependents of their own be so switched off as to what is happening right now? And this is why no deal will happen - because people like them refused to accept that it could and laughed when they were warned of the consequences. If everyone like them had paid attention and got in on the fight back we would not be where we are now.

Queen similar in my seat in 2017.

Con 56.9%
Lab 38.9%
Lib 2.2%
Green 2%

Lib Dem’s didn’t even stand anybody in local elections here.

It’s a choice between a protest vote to greens or Lib Dem’s which will just pretty much guarantee a pro Brexit Mp. Current incumbent has well and truly nailed his colours to the no deal mast.

If Labour had an actual Brexit policy, they would take the anti-Tory anti-No Deal Brexit votes. This bit is Labour's fault.

I don't recommend watching the latest series of oitnb.

I spent 2 hours in tears last night after watching.

It details the experiences of inmates in US detention centres.

I'm left wondering when if my kids will soon be asked if their surname is english :(

Ironically, its one of only about half a dozen pre-norman conquest saxon names still in existence but it sounds unusual = foriegn.

Fuck.

Time to revisit our "oh fuck rucksacks".

Not voting is certainly everyone's prerogative.

There will probably be much fewer elections in the future anyway.

Touted new poll tax will wipe many more women off the electoral roll too.

One less job to do!

I do like the idea of "oh fuck rucksacks". Preppers like me call them Bug Out Bags in the US style, but there's something pleasingly British about "oh fuck rucksacks ".

I think dh thinks I'm a bit mad to be so worried shitless - but at the same time is now totally on board with stockpiling food and essential meds.

I've also made it clear to him that if it looks like its really going to shit - civil contingency and the like - I'm taking the kids and we are going to stay with family in the eu.

Dh is an adult. He can make his own decisions.

If Labour had an actual Brexit policy, they would take the anti-Tory anti-No Deal Brexit votes. This bit is Labour's fault.

To want a PV in any circumstance and campaigning for Remain against a No Deal/Tory Deal, in the event of Labour winning a GE to renegotiate a deal and for that deal and remain to be given a PV

This was shared on my FB timeline. Pretty much sums up the "democratic" advisory "choice"

Thank you bellini

Just need to figure out what to store in them permanently.

@Hoooo , season appropriate change of clothes plus a bit more underwear. Snacks like cereal bars. Hygiene stuff like toothpaste. Simple first aid. Whatever water options suit you. Phone numbers: family, insurance; that kind of thing. Maybe some camping meal sachets. That sort of thing.
Here's a link that might help
www.redcross.org.uk/get-help/prepare-for-emergencies/prepare-an-emergency-kit

Cheers x

I do like the idea of "oh fuck rucksacks". Preppers like me call them Bug Out Bags in the US style, but there's something pleasingly British about "oh fuck rucksacks "

Maybe just ‘Ohfucksacks’

I like your thinking @SingingBabooshkaBadly 😂😂😂

😁