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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 17:58

We had one in Liverpool. Central station was a bit chaotic.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 18:02

Queen I oppose Labour, because I despise them for collaborating with the Tories on Brexit

For many Remainers, having their vote counted - again ! - as a pro-Brexit vote is unacceptable

Remainers can vote for LDem or Green, or outside England for SNP / Plaid / Alliance or SDLP

QueenOfThorns · 09/08/2019 18:03

Yep, power outages in Stockport. Strange lack of chaos despite all the traffic lights being out on my way home!

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 18:06

The current grid problem is presumably just an inadequate infrastructure with too few backups.

However, I did wonder earier if soon after Brexit we might see a lot of infrastructure hacking attacks and drones around major airports
Also maybe a few more poison attacks

Putin and anyone else who fancies causing grief when the UK is at its most vulnerable

QueenOfThorns · 09/08/2019 18:08

BCF, I am pretty hacked off with Labour as well, but it gets nowhere near how I feel about the Tories. And I can’t stand the thought of seeing Johnson’s fat smug face if he increases his majority Sad

DGRossetti · 09/08/2019 18:11

However, I did wonder earier if soon after Brexit we might see a lot of infrastructure hacking attacks and drones around major airports

With respect to power, the best hack is to invest fuck all in the infrastructure, try and fool everyone with a Byzantine interconnect and tariff system to divert from the unpleasant fact that the UK is dangerously into it's reserve capacity and is going to get worse whatever happens.

No amount of "smart" meters can magic energy from nowhere. As I have explained patiently to every call I've had, if they really save energy (they don't) then I'd rather have a smart gas meter and a smart water meter.

prettybird · 09/08/2019 18:12

Mr Javid told the BBC: "I am not expecting a recession at all. And in fact, don't take my word for it. There's not a single leading forecaster out there that is expecting a recession, the independent Bank of England is not expecting a recession. And that's because they know that the fundamentals remain strong."

(From the BBC news item - but I've just heard the quote on the 6 o'clock news) What a hyprocrite Angry He's quite happy to quote "the experts" when they serve his purposes, but when they forecast negative effects of Brexit (hard Brexit, let alone No Deal Brexit), they're not to be trusted and should be ignored Confused

Talk about selective listening/quoting Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 18:18

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

The normalisation of the risks of a 'no deal' Brexit is one of the most amazing aspects of this entire episode

- that a Government should start its election pitch on the basis of an act of econmic self-harm (whatever your views as to where it leads). 1/

But it really does now seem as if we are heading towards a 'no deal' in order that @BorisJohnson can see off the threat from @NigelFaragee @brexitpartyyuk

  • these polls are right. /2

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/01/boris-johnson-will-secure-commons-majority-uk-leaves-no-deal/amp/?

Boris Johnson will only secure a Commons majority at the next election if he goes to the country after a no-deal Brexit, a poll has revealed

The Conservatives would have a seven-point lead over Labour and neuter support for the Brexit Party if the Prime Minister held an election after a no-deal Brexit, according to the ComRes analysis.

In all other scenarios
- including an election before Brexit or after extending the deadline or after leaving with an agreement similar to Theresa May’s -
the Conservatives would be left without a majority.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 18:21

Which makes it surprising when some Lexiters are so gung-ho for No Deal, knowing it is probably the only way for BJ to win a majority

SIngle issue tribalism ?

NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 18:26

I had a survey from Nectar earlier. With a load of Brexit questions in it. Not exactly what I was expecting when I started it!

howabout · 09/08/2019 18:27

Nope BCF If Lexiters were as single issue as Remainers then the outcome would likely be a Conservative / Brexit Party coalition.

I'm guessing the Remain dream outcome is a Conservative / LibDem coalition to block Brexit?

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 18:29

Sebastian Payne @SebastianePayne
💥 Remainers are finally getting their act together 💥

@NickCohen4 reveals:

- Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru announcing 30 joint candidates on Aug 15
- Sitting MPs won’t be challenged
- Another 30 candidates on Aug 22
- Final 40 candidates on Sep 6

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/the-remain-alliance-that-could-spoil-boris-johnsons-party/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
The Remain alliance that could spoil Boris Johnson’s party

My understanding is that the easy decisions are close to being taken. There’s agreement that sitting MPs should be given a free run, and on the names of candidates for obvious target seats. The Greens were far ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the Isle of Wight in the 2017 election, for example, and will provide the sole remain candidate in the constituency next time.

A second tranche of 30 or so constituencies will be settled on 22 August. As the parties move down the list of target seats, the task becomes harder. In each constituency they are asking activists to step aside for a rival, a hard concession for many to make.

And

The final meeting on 6 September, in the week Parliament returns, will be the most important. Candidates for a final tranche of about 40 seats will be chosen. It will also be the deadline for independent MPs to decide what they want to do. The Commons has 16 independents already, and could see more by next month. If they want support, they can join one of the Remain parties – Sarah Wollaston, the former Tory MP, and Angela Smith, ex-Labour, will join the Lib Dems next month. They can run unopposed as independents, if they can reach agreements with remain parties, or perhaps a new umbrella party could be created to accommodate them. After 6 September, all deals are off.

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RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 18:30

Power out at Ipswich hospital.

And the backup generator has failed...

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WorriedMutha · 09/08/2019 18:30

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/the-remain-alliance-that-could-spoil-boris-johnsons-party/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Hope the link works. Is this the beginning of the fight back.

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 18:34

To generate publicity and raise morale, the alliance is talking about targeting high profile Brexiters: Jacob Rees-Mogg and, possibly, Jeremy Corbyn. The local elections showed the Liberal Democrats in Mogg’s Somerset North East could win if they can squeeze the Labour vote.

In Islington North, the argument about running a unity candidate has yet to be resolved. I cannot get confirmation, but my best guess is they will choose Caroline Russell, a popular and impressive Green councillor, who has been the sole opposition voice in what is otherwise a one-party Labour state.

Decapitation strategy over Johnson???

And

I am told that Labour MPs who have fought Brexit will face only paper challengers. There will be a Liberal Democrat on the ballot paper, for instance, in Ben Bradshaw’s Exeter and Peter Kyle’s Hove but campaigning efforts will be directed elsewhere.

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DGRossetti · 09/08/2019 18:35

Power out at Ipswich hospital. And the backup generator has failed...

A lot of places I've worked have fudged their DR/BC outputs to avoid actually testing them as they cut into profits.

(There are some places I know that have a 2-day "manual process" line in the plans, which doesn't explain how they will manually process anything - there's no manual system for a lot of computerised processes).

Still, as long as the shareholders are happy - sod the customers.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 18:36

"I'm guessing the Remain dream outcome is a Conservative / LibDem coalition to block Brexit?"

Nope, it would be an all-party coalition

woman19 · 09/08/2019 18:39

Nope, it would be an all-party coalition
yup.

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 18:43

Our house is ready to hobble along if there are grid problems. Is yours?

woman19 · 09/08/2019 18:48

For the 2nd time in 24 hours Euston is closed. Getting our commuting family members safely to and from work each day is a ing joke. Angry This ing island...... is some sort of a sick joke.

cherin · 09/08/2019 18:50

Bellini...i live in a 3rd floor flat in London, I really can’t see how u could install a generator, how am I supposed to get ready? PV panels would need to go into communal areas...I think we are hopeless?

NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 18:55

Well, we have candles, camping stoves and plenty of charcoal / two BBQs. Plenty of torches too.

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 18:58

I don't have a generator @cherin . But I have alternative sources of light and heat.
Here's a cheapo example for light - empty 4 pint milk carton. Filled with water. Cheapo head torch on it but with light pointing inwards. Makes a non-scary diffused light lantern which is nicer for kids than torches. Stick it in front of a mirror for more light.

Hoooo · 09/08/2019 19:00

Candles, wind up torches, I'm ordering a solar light.

I might get another canister for the camping stove...

Worcesterlass · 09/08/2019 19:01

@bellinisurge you remind me of my DH. We have got spare lights in case of power cuts.