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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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Socksontheradiator · 09/08/2019 19:04

I love your homemade lamp idea, @bellinisurge. Off to see if my head torch works. I have the milk bottle :)
Can't afford a generator but we have think duvets and warm pets.
Camping equipment in loft. Been meaning to sort it out, and this is a good reminder.

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 19:04

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
NEW: internal docs from Dept for Environment reveals govt cannot cannot guarantee protection of UK territorial waters after a no deal Brexit as we only have 12 vessels to monitor “a surface area three times the size of the UK”. Nothing to stop EU fishermen continuing to fish.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
OP posts:
Peregrina · 09/08/2019 19:05

It's a sensible and elegant solution that there be a reorganisation of the Parliamentary parties.

I'd love to see it, but it will only happen when both the Tories and Labour wake up to the fact that they can no longer win a majority. So it could be twenty years coming.

Socksontheradiator · 09/08/2019 19:05

I think you can get battery operated lights that you can stick to a wall. Probably saw them in an innovations catalogue.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 19:06

This is reminding me of the early 70s - also under the Tories:
repeated power cuts (then came the 3-day week)

Did I miss what is causing all this, other than inadequate infrastructure and lack of fallbacks ?
or when the current problems will be fixed patched up until the next time

Curious timing
(I wonder if anyone was testing their prepping plans)

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 19:07

Please please everyone be very careful about ventilation if considering camping stoves indoors. And of course fire risk. Safety first.

NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 19:08

Bloody hell, bellini, I would use them indoors. That's what DH is invented for (to send outside to cook in all weathers!).

NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 19:09

Wouldn't. Clearly!

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 19:10

EU buyers not committing to UK meat orders over fears of no-deal Brexit tariffs

https://thepigsite.com/news/2019/08/eu-buyers-not-committing-to-uk-meat-orders-over-fears-of-no-deal-brexit-tariffs

A sense of panic is now gripping the UK meat industry
as exporters see our Government frighten continental buyers with uncompromising threats of a no-deal Brexit.

According to a report from the British Meat Processors Association,
The message that the UK is serious about leaving with no deal may not have convinced European politicians yet,

but it has convinced continental retail buyers who are refusing to agree long term supply contracts with UK meat exporters.

If this continues, we could be witnessing the start of a structural and long-term decline in our nation’s farming capacity and heritage.

Sounds dramatic? Well, it will be.
Reduced orders from our biggest and closest trading partner (which are not easily and quickly replicated elsewhere) will filter all the way back to UK farmers, who will bear the brunt of this loss of trade.

It will put many out of business and, once they’re gone, it won’t be easy to re-establish those farm businesses.

Turning their backs on the UK:
European buyers considering buying British meat are now being confronted with multiple risks which they’re not prepared to take.

Chief among them is the possibility that
they may well be saddled with tariffs as high as 65 percent on certain imports that are due for delivery after 31 October.

Committing to any orders or supply contracts that extend after the Brexit date therefore makes no sense whatsoever to our customers in Europe and, indeed, in the rest of the world.

Insurers that cover these consignments and facilitate the movement of goods between countries are refusing to indemnify against losses related to a no-deal Brexit.

Couple that with a volatile exchange rate,
mooted border delays
and complete uncertainty surrounding whether Brexit will even happen on 31 October

means the obvious solution for EU buyers is to source product from elsewhere.

This means that, come 31 October,
British meat companies, who are now being forced to export day to day at "spot prices", Shock

could have the rug pulled from under them and see orders simply cease with no long-term supply contracts to soften the blow.

Socksontheradiator · 09/08/2019 19:12

Likewise, @noword, but appreciate the warning, Bellini x

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 19:21

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall

How are we on the verge of a no deal?

Because the no dealers are willing to do absolutely anything necessary to obtain it.
Its opponents aren’t.

Could it be stopped? Sure. Will it?
Not unless remainers learn from their foes.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-no-dealers-are-winning-because-they-want-it-more-11779078

we now have a prime minister and a government, buttressed by a not inconsiderable rump of the Conservative party,

who have made it clear that there is not a convention they are not willing to break,
an institution they are not willing to smash,
a precedent they are not willing to burn,

in the pursuit of their goal.
....
Brexit then, "whatever the cost", as Dominic Cummings has said.

It is a nihilistic vision of politics and indeed, a most unusual one for self-described "Conservatives"
but it is, relentless and clear-sighted
....
The path to a no-deal Brexit was always a narrow one
but it is one its proponents are navigating successfully because they are united,
there's nothing they are unwilling to do in the name of their prize.

Meanwhile, because of their opponents indecision, the paths to stopping no deal, once wide and plentiful, have narrowed and reduced.
Now perhaps only two remain.

The first is the sort of legislative manoeuvrings as we saw under Theresa May's premiership;
something along the lines of the Letwin-Cooper bill, a fast-tracked piece of legislation which compels the prime minister to seek an extension if no deal can be agreed.
....
the only other option will be a motion of no confidence.
Even if that hurdle is surpassed, in order for Johnson not to run out the clock and call an election after the 14 day time cooling off period has elapsed,
then those against no-deal would have to coalesce around an alternative prime minister and communicate to the Palace their willingness to install that person.

This is where the problems become most acute.
Because in order to do that and guarantee no deal is off the table for longer, no-deal opponents would have to relegate every other political interest and impulse
- party, faction, personal and political and unite in pursuit of that goal.
As yet there is as yet no sign of it.
....
The opponents of no deal are encumbered in that they have other priorities:
the Labour Party above all wishes to get into government and has no greater loyalty than to itself.
....
All of this, despite the fact that the mandate for a no-deal Brexit is negligible at best.
And that alludes to something else the no-dealers have over their remain counterparts.
They're just better at politics.

cherin · 09/08/2019 19:50

I was also thinking of recharging phones in order to stay in touch with news in case of emergency...the solar bank charger my son bought was totally useless (and I’d expect even less useful in November!), maybe they still do hand crank radios ;-)
Some of my colleagues are still blissfully oblivious. One of my EU colleague didn’t know about the settled status scheme. She only just married a Brit (not yet registered the marriage in the U.K.), but I suppose she will still have to do the paperwork for it?

QueenOfThorns · 09/08/2019 20:04

Being married to a Brit doesn’t help, she will still need settled status. I don’t think I registered my marriage in the UK at all!

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 20:06

They do still have hand crank radios. Have a charger pack thing permanently topped up. They aren't too pricey.
And your pal should register her marriage or have some notarised translation of any paperwork she has in furrin.

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 20:07

Also sms text messages are more likely to go through first rather than voice calls, if there is a problem on the network.

woman19 · 09/08/2019 20:08

St Pancras closed.
Kings Cross closed.

They have closed doors of the station – no power whatsoever. Outside Kings Cross station is absolute mayhem nobody knows anything nobody can find an assistant to speak to at this point. No commuters are allowed in... There is so much confusion

Nov 1st is going to be a larf!

frumpety · 09/08/2019 20:12

Power issues to London, South East, Midlands and North West allegedly caused by two generators ? As reported on Sky news. Did anyone else watch this and think 'really? two generators not working can cause this level of disruption ?'

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 20:15

Why did two generators go at the same time?

OP posts:
woman19 · 09/08/2019 20:17

It was the 'wind' frumpety. Wink

EU vermin traitor wind was the technical term, I heard.

NoWordForFluffy · 09/08/2019 20:23

If one was up here it was probably drowned into submission!

placemats · 09/08/2019 20:25

I'm so hoping this is Gremlins in the system.

She says, with power and internet on. But a very wonky landline that is driving me nuts and I only have it because of my mother.

Grinchly · 09/08/2019 20:33

An emergency planning exercise is taking place on the m62 in the north west this weekend, Hmmtaking place overnight when the mway is closed anyway for upgrade.

Google the detail - all ostensibly about a massive pile up and testing resilience of emergency workers, and the back up services.

frumpety · 09/08/2019 20:33

The wind as in the blowy stuff that we currently have, but can stand upright in, so is described locally as a very light breeze ?
Or the wind as in the slightly more noxious stuff caused by people hitting the legume part of their stockpile a little too hard ?

Grinchly · 09/08/2019 20:36

@RedToothBrush testing testing. Possibly.

placemats · 09/08/2019 20:47

Oh and the irony.

When I rang to let BT know about the fault on my land line I was talking to someone in

Dublin.

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