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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 08:27

Tbe only good news I can see is that the numpties on my local FB pages, including two of my "friends " have stopped posting "No Deal is great" shit.

Jason118 · 09/08/2019 08:28

Are Bullingdon chickens chlorinated?

Rhubarbisevil · 09/08/2019 08:30

I want to stockpile petrol!!’

But I want Brexit to be cancelled and that won’t happen either.

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 08:32

Don't stockpile petrol @Rhubarbisevil . Just make sure your tank is never less than half full. Take it from a prepper, in the UK, unless you live in a rural area, there is no safe way to stockpile petrol other than in the petrol tank of your car .

Rhubarbisevil · 09/08/2019 08:34

I know, I know.... but actually I do live in a very very rural area. DH would go insane if he found a load of Jerry cans at the bottom of the garden.

Guess I won’t be able to take the kids to school then....

Summery1 · 09/08/2019 08:36

twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429?s=19

This really is worth a read. 'Singapore on Thames'

bellinisurge · 09/08/2019 08:36

If you aren't old enough to have been a car owner and driver in the fuel strikes 20 years ago - no unnecessary journeys and a steady 55mph if on the motorway as maximum speed.

Justaboutdone · 09/08/2019 08:43

I will make sure I have 2 full tanks on 31st Oct. probably fill up a couple of weeks before and just keep it stocked up.

I do remember the fuel strikes. I had just topped up my car (well my parents paid for it). I had to give it to my dad to let him get to work. He actually was on the list of people who could fuel though. Although I think in the end he never needed to fill up before it was over.
That was a strange time and only fuel affected.

This time it could be a lot worse. Stockpiling starts again soon as have run down most of my previous stash.

Hazardtired · 09/08/2019 09:09

amp.france24.com/en/20180311-france-usa-bannon-le-pen-national-front-racist-badge-honour-populist-pep-talk-lille-trump?fbclid=IwAR3P2Pkq3SkHa52sY0ZQpf_vRopl2_XDmF3Xf25JiV1sXmNY7ZjJZE46eGk&ref=fb&__twitter_impression=true

Wear racist as a badge in honour says the american gammon bannon ham man at the french far right summit.

Sounds like more dismal news BUT the detail in the article shows that the French are just not on board the far right shite even if the party gets a rebranding.

TheElementsSong · 09/08/2019 09:58

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-goves-big-idea-why-not-keep-banks-closed-day-after-brexit-xrjhdll5l

Michael Gove raised the prospect of holding a bank holiday on November 1 amid concerns that a no-deal Brexit would cause turmoil on the financial markets.

Gove will now be denounced as not a True BeLeaver.

DGRossetti · 09/08/2019 10:19

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Westminstenders: Promises, promises
RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 10:47

Faisal Islam@faisalislam
ONS: 0.2% fall in GDP in Q2 - first fall for 7 years - worse than expected

^... on that number technical recession possible though not most likely. Probably now in the middle of weakest 2 quarters for growth since the financial crisis, weakest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis...
If consensus expectations correct, it will be weakest showing in G7.^

Falls in manufacturing biggest in a decade, driven by No Deal car plant shutdowns, falls in production overall biggest since 2012. Service sector growth slowest in three years.

Consumer held up though.

But this is basically broad based, some of it down to one-offs, but not all

Much of the driver for this is further downward revisions to the impact of No Deal planning/ shutdowns in manufacturing in April... households and Government spending supporting the economy

GDP by quarter since crisis - first fall since eurozone crisis 6.5 yrs ago - but also those figures were then distorted by Olympics - so while it opens risk of a technical recession - clearly nowhere near eg financial crisis... not just about April No Deal shutdowns, June also 0

The markets must have been expecting better as the pound has fallen on the news this morning.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
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RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 10:49

Andrew Neil @afneil
We won’t get Q3 til November 11th.

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RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 10:53

DGR on one of our many recent trips to IKEA we did spot an excellent product if you have dogshit on your shoes and need to get rid of it...

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
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RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 11:11

Britain Elects@britainelects

Newnham (Cambridge) result:
LDEM: 59.5% (+16.3)
LAB: 18.1% (-18.1)
GRN: 11.5% (+1.5)
CON: 11.0% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrat HOLD.

Claines (Worcester) result:
LDEM: 47.6% (+9.3)
CON: 45.6% (+5.2)
GRN: 4.6% (-0.6)
LAB: 2.2% (-12.4)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

Irthlingborough Waterloo (East Northamptonshire) result:
CON: 53.1% (-2.2)
LAB: 46.9% (+11.6)
Conservative HOLD.
No BNP (-9.4) as previous.

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 11:19

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Westminstenders: Promises, promises
QueenOfThorns · 09/08/2019 11:20

Irthlingborough Waterloo (East Northamptonshire) result:
CON: 53.1% (-2.2)
LAB: 46.9% (+11.6)
Conservative HOLD.
No BNP (-9.4) as previous

So the BNP vote shifted to Labour???

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 11:22

In these and other results,
I'm seeing LAB down and LDem up, but BREX either not present or not taking LAB votes

no consistent change in CON, sometimes a little up, sometimes down

BigChocFrenzy · 09/08/2019 11:23

If LAB are taking former votes from the openly fascist BNP, is that why Lexiters are so eager to pander to BREX ?

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 11:25

Interesting isn't it BCF?

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TheABC · 09/08/2019 11:25

It's interesting to note the Lib Dem gains in each place and the fact that Labour, rather the Conservative benefitedfrom the absence of other parties in Northamptonshire.

If Parliament does trigger a VONC followed by a general election, I can't see the Tories getting another majority.

Peregrina · 09/08/2019 11:30

It looks to me as though the LibDems are picking up disaffected Tories.

RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 11:36

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
First broadcast interview with the new Chancellor of the Exchequer coming up... after the 0.2% fall in GDP... says he’s “not expecting a recession at all” and that it wasn’t a surprise and ackowledges “the Brexit that never was” was a factor in “significant stockpiling”

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RedToothBrush · 09/08/2019 11:40

UK Prime Minister @10DowningStreet 19h
A very happy #InternationalCatDay to our Chief Mouser, Larry.

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
"So the whole 'getting a dog' thing played well with most demographics, however 26% of voters are cat-lovers and that rises significantly when you drill down to single women, where you are underperforming, so here's what I want you to do..."

So there's this and there is the bus in the background video...

... and he's announcing stuff on facebook.

Interesting propaganda and trolling.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
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