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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

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Mistigri · 06/08/2019 21:42

I think misti meant she didn't believe BJ would choose to call a GE soon after No Deal

I don't think he would choose to, but I don't think it would be possible anyway. GEs essentially create a 2 month + hiatus in policy making. That's not possible in a ND situation, as a lot of legislation will be needed and government departments will need to be fully functioning.

Local authorities may be struggling too.

Really really hard to see how a GE could take place in the weeks following ND.

In any case why would Blowjob take the risk? Wait for parliament to block ND, be "forced" into extending A50, run a long "the people versus parliament" campaign and win an election next spring.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 21:46

Some thoughts about no deal and a GE. And timing.

Can we stop no deal?

Realistically if the pm is hell bent on it, no we aren't. The courts aren't there to fill a policy void from parliament. The idea that we can stop no deal through the courts when no deal is the default, isn't realistic.

It requires the PM to either do a deal or ask for an extension. Both of which are easy enough to avoid if you want no deal.

We've also ruled out a unilateral offer of an extension as the UK don't have to take it, it's continuity no deal and it completely undermines the EU's political aims.

So. Where does that leave us.

Johnson seems to actively be wanting and courting a GE. The important thing to him, is to control the timetable of that.

As I've said before he'd be looking to land it as close to 31st Oct as possible. Indeed the 31st October itself is a Thursday. (and the day Cummings is apparently contracted to, if that's of interest). So either that day or a week later would be the bet.

Johnson wants to promote the idea that the EU are punishing us and that parliament is against the people.

I wonder therefore if a Vonc early is the way to go at all. It plays to everything he wants.

At this point, since there is no way to stop no deal, is it better to make the timing stink for Johnson?

I wonder if the game isn't about no deal at all now. But the deal that must come after no deal and what that looks like and how we get to a close alignment with the EU after all the bullshit. The backstop and the political declaration are STILL going to have to be resolved. They don't go away.

And if Johnson continues to go, 'I'm not talking to Brussels', how long can they last post no deal?

You want a GE to be landing at least a fortnight after no deal. A later GE with no deal makes Johnson's life harder. An early vonc possibly works in his favour. That's the irony. If he doesn't get a vonc, the pressure actually builds for Johnson as he knows he has to manage no deal AND run an election campaign.

Does this ramp up the pressure for Johnson to do a last minute deal? Arguably yes. Not necessarily, but it makes his plans harder not easier as his goal isn't for no deal ultimately. Its to keep Boris Johnson in power

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RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 21:48

Why can't we have a GE on Oct 31st? Too late to stop no deal then. But no messy after effect at that point. And that's when Dom is sticking around until?

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Peregrina · 06/08/2019 21:48

Not that he would stop future GEs happening within the prescribed time limits

He could. GEs were suspended during the war, so there were no elections between 1935 and 1945. My late DF would have been old enough to vote any time from early August 1938 but instead had to wait until 1945.

woman19 · 06/08/2019 21:49

The Civil Contingency Act' which could banjax a later GE due to the country being in a state of civil unrest
Yup.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 21:50

He could. GEs were suspended during the war, so there were no elections between 1935 and 1945

The Civil Contingency Act.

This is where any dictatorship would start in the UK. Blair was a fucking idiot and left a gaping wide backdoor in law to one with this act.

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Jellykat · 06/08/2019 21:51

De-lurking after hearing Gove on radio 4 news earlier announcing that it looks like the EU will not re-negotiate.. No shit Sherlock!
I am completely gobsmacked, what did he think the public have been hearing all these months - the EU have said the agreement was not up for re-negotiation over and over again.. we heard it, how can he pretend he didn't? was he locked in a cupboard or something?

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 21:52

My money is either on 31st Oct GE OR no GE because its called off due to the Civil contingency act.

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Mistigri · 06/08/2019 21:52

I simply don't believe that an election on 31/10 is credible. Very high risk strategy for Blowjob. And it would mean going into ND in a policy and legislative vacuum.

Very sceptical about a 7/11 GE for the same reason but with knobs on. Stratospheric risk levels, trying to hold a GE while Kent could be in gridlock and shortages starting to make themselves felt.

Don't disagree about VONC timing. Going to need nerves of steel,

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 06/08/2019 21:57

I’m so glad this thread is here. I’m really struggling to understand the timings of any potential VoNC.

yolofish · 06/08/2019 21:58

red I think you are very well informed and clever... any chance you could actually run for PM in the next couple of weeks?! I feel sure you could sort most of it...

Kent going into gridlock on Nov 1 could well focus the minds... although to be fair, Operation Stack has never made the rest of the country take much notice (bitter resident speaking). The M20 is a fuckshow at the moment anyway, even without Brexit.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 06/08/2019 21:59

Could the EU reopen negotiations - but only if there another extension to Brexit. 31st Oct is really soon.

Frankiestein402 · 06/08/2019 21:59

The relatively straightforward way for both Boris and EU to row back is to create a clone of the article 50 process for the WA.

Ellie56 · 06/08/2019 22:00

Pretty certain BJ will go down in history, either as the shortest reigning PM or the one who finished off what David Cameron started and broke up the United Kingdom.Sad

So much for a posh education. Who knew Eton College turned out such stupid twats?

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/08/2019 22:03

Could they add a motion saying if a govt hasn't been formed by the leave date then the PM has to ask for an extension to cover the election period onto a VoNC? Would it be more likely to fail if that was added? Or more likely to pass?

Oakenbeach · 06/08/2019 22:05

Pretty certain BJ will go down in history, either as the shortest reigning PM or the one who finished off what David Cameron started and broke up the United Kingdom

Or quite possibly, both!

Peregrina · 06/08/2019 22:05

I am completely gobsmacked, what did he think the public have been hearing all these months - the EU have said the agreement was not up for re-negotiation over and over again.. we heard it

Nope, only the Remainers heard it. The Leavers are tin eared.

Pretty certain BJ will go down in history, either as the shortest reigning PM or the one who finished off what David Cameron started and broke up the United Kingdom.

I hope so, preferably the first, but I don't now think I would be too upset about the second. Will having a Scottish maiden name get me a Scottish passport, do you think?

NoWordForFluffy · 06/08/2019 22:06

OK, so was this vote (BBC link) pointless? If parliament has to be sitting in the run up to 31 Oct, how does that tally with having a GE before Brexit / on 31 Oct?

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 22:09

I think you are very well informed and clever... any chance you could actually run for PM in the next couple of weeks?!

Not currently a member of any political party. + No public profile.

No chance.

Sorry!

Very high risk strategy for Blowjob. And it would mean going into ND in a policy and legislative vacuum.

Any policy going forward is v high risk for Johnson though. That's the nature of being a minority government (which I think we will be into, in early September). Johnson therefore has nothing to lose - remember Johnson's goal isn't for a smooth transition, it's to keep Johnson in power. (I'm going to be saying this a lot over the next few weeks and months).

He has everything to gain by ramping up the stakes cos it makes him 'look strong' and its all about the optics not the policy.

Johnson has no way to play it safe either.

He's said 'its do or die'. Believe him when he says he's going for broke and will play the highest risk strategy possible. He means it.

As he has no alternative anyway. There isn't another pathway now, given the Cabinet he's picked and the rhetoric he's been pushing.

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ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 06/08/2019 22:11

Could they add a motion saying if a govt hasn't been formed by the leave date then the PM has to ask for an extension to cover the election period onto a VoNC

That sounds sane, so it probably won’t happen.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 22:13

If parliament has to be sitting in the run up to 31 Oct, how does that tally with having a GE before Brexit / on 31 Oct?

It doesn't tally.

But who said parliament had to be sitting? Gloves are off now. We are into constitutional Carney. Normal rules don't apply.

Technically to pass legislation parliament is needed for brexit.

Butcould the CCA cover the need for emergency legislation to be done by the executive alone without Parliament ?

The threat of no deal mets the threshold of danger to life...

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RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 22:15

Could they add a motion saying if a govt hasn't been formed by the leave date then the PM has to ask for an extension to cover the election period onto a VoNC

If Johnson refuses to respect Parliament and refuses to ask for an extension, what then?

He could. Don't rule out Johnson defying Parliament. I'm expecting him to.

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ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 06/08/2019 22:18

If Johnson refuses to respect Parliament and refuses to ask for an extension, what then

Prison? Yes I’m clutching at straws.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 22:19

Opinons I've read about 7 Nov being favoured over 31 Oct

are that many Brexiters are paranoid about the "elite" stopping Brexit at the last minute

  • and voting would end at 10 pm, which would give 1 hour while we are still within the EU for saboteurs to Revoke !
prettybird · 06/08/2019 22:20

If BlowJob has genuinely budgeted an extra £1.8 billion new money for the NHS, then the automatic corollary is that Scotland will get an extra £180 million, Wales £110 million and NI £60 million under the Barnett Formula. Grin

I'm sure the devolved administrations (or the Civil Servants in the case of NI Wink) will already be spending the money Wink....after all, BlowJob has promised it is new. Hmm

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