Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 22:23

In the short term, defying Paliament could gain votes for BJ

After 6-12 months, it would just be the least of many problems overwhelming him

He probably plans to be another Bullingdon PM:
enjoy being PM until it looks like too hard work, then toddle off whistling, leaving a trashed country behind

BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 22:25

We must keep reminding ourselves that BJ cares only about BJ - not the UK, its people, the Tory party or Brexit

Icantreachthepretzels · 06/08/2019 22:28

If Johnson refuses to respect Parliament and refuses to ask for an extension, what then?

Oh I know - but if it's possible then they must at least try it because as a pp said (sorry I didn't look who and I'm on the next page now!) they could probably prosecute at a later date. Too late to save us but still some comfort.

I think Boris may be an actual psychopath in the true sense of the word - which means playing high stakes is natural to him. Those opposing him have to play him at that game and heighten the stakes for him - criminal culpability does nicely. But it will take nerves of steel and a group effort.

Hazardtired · 06/08/2019 22:32

Isn't Johnson lazy though? All this sounds like effort.

RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 22:48

Isn't Johnson lazy though? All this sounds like effort.

How much work do you think he's actually doing? He's delegating... I mean it looks a lot like he's got Pob doing the shit for detail of no deal whilst Cumberbatch does the donkey work for his constitutional trashing and election strategy. Meanwhile he just turns up for the photo ops and shags Carrie.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 06/08/2019 22:51

are that many Brexiters are paranoid about the "elite" stopping Brexit at the last minute - and voting would end at 10 pm, which would give 1 hour while we are still within the EU for saboteurs to Revoke !

Johnson remains PM until the result is declared. Only Sunderland and Newcastle get their ballot boxes counted in the first hour and that's cutting it fine.

There is no hour after the polls close.

OP posts:
Mistigri · 06/08/2019 22:53

He has everything to gain by ramping up the stakes cos it makes him 'look strong' and its all about the optics not the policy.

I agree with this, but not with the rest. I think that this is all about Blowjob being "forced" by parliament to seek an extension, so he can run a campaign on a "the people versus parliament" platform.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 23:16

Personally I suspect a lot of BoZo's resources have gone into seeing which stockpiles are strong (i.e how long civil unrest will hold off for) after no deal. This and trying to counter Steward/Hammond et al in whatever strategy they may have in mind.

Gove coming out saying 'Bad EU' right now isn't something new, but I do wonder if this is the start of a snowball effect into EU are forcing us to host a short notice GE (tbh I'm struggling with the Why's at this moment - still I'm sure the fiction dept Cummings will come up with those). Gove is still on the news feeds of Leavers so this time they will listen. By now (after the last EU election) we should all expect vast swathes of the country being unable to vote due to administrative errors and errant paperwork...likely in remain areas. We will have snatched our country out of the jaws of EU at the last minute! Just a hunch.

prettybird · 06/08/2019 23:17

There are times when I listen to Carol Malone (last night) and Brendan O'Neil of Spiked Online (tonight), on SKY's Press Preview (yes, I know, I know, I really shouldn't for the sake of my blood pressure and the risk to the TV Wink) when I think, "You're so fucking delusional that I hope that all the many damaging aspects of a No Deal hurt you spectacularly and personally and that you are forced to come back on to the show to admit you were wrong."

Unfortunately, I think that their comfortable livings as journalists mean that they will be comfortably cushioned from the worst of the impact and even if the evidence of extreme damage is staring them in the face, they will still deny it is anything to do with Brexit: it will be

a) the nasty EU's negotiators' fault for refusing to give in to the democratic will of 17.9 million people,

b) nasty capitalist US's fault for imposing a tough trade deal on poor ickle bickle UK,

c) nasty Irish ancestry US politicians interfering with the democratic will of the UK people and refusing to allow a trade deal,

d) nasty Ireland's fault for insisting on an unnecessary border in Ireland, e) nasty undemocratic E27 for having imposed red lines that are stronger than the UK's red lines,

f) nasty EU for imposing a backstop that the UK asked for and was only reluctantly agreed to on a UK wide basis, g) nasty EU refusing to negotiate even though the UK has not changed any of its red lines,

h) nasty EU being in free fall economically which is why the UK needed to leave,

i) nasty EU countries' economies being in their death throes,

j) nasty EU border control officials imposing tariffs and checks that result in gridlock,

k) nasty EU intransigence being the reason for empty shelves in UK supermarkets,

l) nasty EU supporting Remoaners' panic buying months in advance being the reason for the empty shelves Hmm

m) what people knew that they were voting for as they were told No Deal was possible

n) what Parliament knowingly voted for (No Deal) when it voted to invoke Article 50 Confused

I've heard all of the above in the last couple of days by Brexit No Deal apologists Angry

The last thing they will do (in fact, they will never do) is admit that they were wrong. Angry

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 23:19

It could be the nihilist within me but I still feel BoZo won't want to sacrifice the boost of Leaver votes he would get from forcing No Deal...as long as it is before big things hit the fan (estimates have been between 3 and 6 months after B.Day from what I read but I'd settle for 2),

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 23:21

Misti everything I've read about Cummings is how pissed off he was at the previous extensions. He is in the driving seat now and I don't think he would enable another on his watch.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 23:23

"There is no hour after the polls close. "

red That is apparently the views of the Brexit paranoids, whom the Tories have to consider when setting a GE date:

That BJ could con them into voting for him, but then Revoke as soon as the polls have closed

Hence why Tory central reportedly think 31 October is riskier than 7 Nov wrt losing votes to Farage

SwedishEdith · 06/08/2019 23:23

Oh, Carol Malone is awful! I looked at her Twitter feed once - all "love", "pet" etc to her followers. Like Michelle Dewberry's mum.

Oakenbeach · 06/08/2019 23:28

There appears to be this strange misconception amongst some that the Tories are likely to be in a strong position come November and we’ve crashed out in a no-deal Brexit. I really don’t think they will be....

Notwithstanding the likely ensuing chaos that will
hardly help their vote, the Tories should remember Churchill’s fate in 1945 - the public don’t vote out of gratitude....

Plenty of Brexit-supporting-non-Tories/ voted-Remain-but-must-honour-the-referendum/ don’t-care-just-get-it-done voters who would have supported him in a pre-Brexit poll to “finish the job” won’t feel any need to vote for the Tories out of gratitude once they’ve delivered. This may not be the majority of their vote, but it will add up to a significant proportion.

And I can’t see them getting their Remainer Tory moderate votes back in a hurry.... (as one myself I certainly won’t be under any circumstances).

Also, it’s as much of a mistake to think the Brexit Party will disappear once we leave as it is to think we can all move on and forget about Brexit once we leave.... Farage and his crowd will still be there making sure we don’t give an inch in the post-Brexit negotiations - every penny of the £39bn paid will be deemed to be pandering to Brussels and a betrayal.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 23:29

Meanwhile, months of uncertainty have not exactly helped some sectors of the economy

After No Deal, uncertainty will change to the certainty of the worst has happened

www.smmt.co.uk/2019/07/uk-car-production-falls-20-in-first-six-months-as-new-data-reveals-330-million-no-deal-mitigation-bill/

•	<strong>UK car manufacturing falls by a fifth in first half of 2019,</strong> 

with June decline marking 13 consecutive months of negative growth

•	Downturns at home and in key global markets see YTD production for the UK and export fall -16.4% and

•	-21.0% respectively, with April’s extraordinary Brexit shutdowns adding to losses.

•	<span class="italic">New data reveals £330 million cost of EU departure mitigation measures, underscoring the need for a Brexit deal.</span>
BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 23:37

oakenbeach Right after Brexit Day, BJ can present that as a victory

Most people don't believe No Deal will be more than teething problems
So a GE would be his best bet within say a week, before problems have had time to affect most people

If he waits until a GE is forced after say 6 months, then he would be in much deeper trouble

His problem is that a majority of 1 - and only with all 10 DUP MPs - means a GE is a matter of months, regardless of what he does

BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 23:42

red re Civil Contingencies Act being used e.g. to stop a GE

The govt does not need parliamentary permission to invoke the Civil Contingencies Act

  • which gives it Emergency Powers -

but after 30 days it needs Parliamentary approval to continue the CCA
AND
Parliament must renew the CCA every 30 days, or it lapses

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/36/contents

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 23:44

Wonder how may of those 10 might be no shows...
I also think if we don't get a GE (if their plans for an early VoNC go awry) it will be straight onto Civil Cont. because we know we have an authoritarian government in and that is what they do. Oh, nasty EU have cut off our food/Kent is gridlocked/we can't do trade deals/IRA has bombed somewhere/remainers are getting violent! For your own good we will patrol the streets with the army, so obviously we can't hold a GE...

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 23:47

Also...what happens if we choose to declare war on Iran around the time we Brexit? Could that not be used as a means to get Parliament supporting CCA? Almost a double whammy of terrorist threat from outside and within and Brexit food/med shortages, etc?

Hazardtired · 07/08/2019 00:03

if we no deal won't the original IRA kick off?

Also I forgot about Dr Phillip Lee thinking of crossing the floor.

Random - Emma Kennedy (author/scrernwriter/remainer) has been asked by lib dems to consider standing as MP. Possibly against gove.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 00:14

Remember when thinking of the majority of 1 and Lee crosing the floor:

Charlie Elphicke, elected as Tory MP for Dover, is on bail until trial for sexual offences.

He is now an Independent, because May ordered the Tory whip removed from him (usual practice)

So he isn't counted as a Tory,
but he would vote with them on a VoNC

There are a few Independent MPs who might also support the Tories

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 00:22

The latest IRA offshoot wannabes will probably ramp up their NI campaign.
afaik, they don't what Republicans call "Active Service Units" on the British mainland
and they are far less effective atm than the Provos used to be

I wouldn't expect the Provos themselves to return to "war",
unless the British Army is encouraged to return to its bad old habits and murder some more Catholics
afaik, following the GFA, troops are not used in policing, so they wouldn't normally come into contact with civilians

Hazardtired · 07/08/2019 00:23

Yeah I was wondering along the lines of if he crossed would others follow - like Sam Gyimah (a face as friendly as his he can't be part of a dictatorship).

wheresmymojo · 07/08/2019 01:35

Peston basically reaching the same conclusion that we have.

Blocking no deal might be theoretically possible but there's no way the opposition parties will sort their shit out and agree one plan of action and Labour and/or Lib Dem will put party ahead of country

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-06/why-johnson-is-confident-he-will-deliver-brexit-deal-or-more-likely-no-deal-writes-robert-peston/?fbclid=IwAR0p3t08lXlfFuzINGGIK4LGkrLL_ysiz-6addvU9dZnf-cQedhXGYy6rNk

mathanxiety · 07/08/2019 05:58

Anyone note that Leo Varadkar attended the Belfast Pride parade at the weekend?
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/northern-irelands-biggest-parade-isnt-orange-or-green-its-rainbowcoloured-varadkar-addresses-belfast-pride-38371458.html

In other NI news, Harland and Wolff goes into administration.
sluggerotoole.com/2019/08/05/harland-and-wolff-to-go-into-administration-today/
The comments section deserves a read. It offers a lot of insight into NI history.