Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

Mistigri
I linked to the University of Oxford.

If we left the EU, the government could boost funding to universities with some of the money saved from our £10 billion net contribution to the EU budget.

The operative word here is could.

@Clavinova - If we left the EU, the government could boost funding to universities with some of the money saved from our £10 billion net contribution to the EU budget.

What is your point? If the UK leave the EU, the government could boost funding to unicorn preservation with some of the money saved from the £10 billion net contribution to the EU budget. It doesn't mean they will.

Universities themselves reported receiving £790 million from 'EU sources' in 2013/14. That's approximately 8% of the £10 billion. How likely do you think the UK government is to spend that on R&D? If you start to add up all the various things the £10 billion is going to be spent on, the numbers start to look a little iffy.

My post was showing how the same data can be presented in ways that support biases, rather than showing a full picture. If you prefer to dissect the linked documents line by line, we can do that.

@Clavinova - I linked to the University of Oxford.

No, you didn't. You linked to an article on a server hosted by the university of oxford and written by an individual representing his somewhat biased viewpoint.

One of the joys of working in academia is the freedom to spout any old rubbish without being censured. Provided you are not breaking the law, plagiarising, falsifying data or out and out lying, you are entitled to your opinion. We call it academic freedom .

Obviously standards apply when publishing in academic journals. However, if you choose the journal carefully, you can get anything published. Which is why, when reading an article, the quality of the journal needs to be considered.

Congrats.. .you found one academic who supports Brexit. And can pretend that cancels out the 90% who oppose it. Rather like the Climate change debate. 90% of scientists agree that there is problematic human caused climate change, but in the interests of 'balance' let's just give equal time to the very small minority of dissenters....

BMJ stance against leaving EU is based on multiple analyses of many types of Brexit impacts, both happening and expected in future on different aspects of NHS services. Having tried to plan for the future, It's not scaremongering to say that one particular path looks bad when indeed, it looks bad.

www.bmj.com/content/359/bmj.j5791/rr-0
www.bmj.com/content/360/bmj.k1328/rr
www.bmj.com/content/359/bmj.j5612/rr

Universities themselves reported receiving £790 million from 'EU sources' in 2013/14.
The link for that is 'page not found''.

'EU sources' - multi-national/private companies based in the EU? Unlikely that funding will dry up from these sources.

Leeds University
Concerns about collaborations

"Following the referendum, some concerns were raised after Universities received anecdotal reports of EU partners not willing to cooperate with UK partners due to the uncertainty on EU-funded research projects."

"Despite a rush of instances in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, collaborations have been almost entirely unaffected, and Leeds has only been removed from 2 known applications."

"The number of applications in deadlines post-referendum has been completely in line with previous years, and no difficulties with consortia have been reported after June 2016."

German university heads call for UK to ‘fully associate’ to Horizon Europe

"Ties will be deepened-regardless of Brexit outcome-pledge Europe’s two leading science nations.Collaboration is as important for the EU as it is for the UK, they say"

sciencebusiness.net/framework-programmes/news/german-university-heads-call-uk-fully-associate-horizon-europe

lljkk
Congrats...you found one academic who supports Brexit.

There appears to be a group of them;
briefingsforbrexit.com/about-the-contributors/

I work in academia

Says the poster quoting Russia Today tweets on a different thread.

Please stop, my sides might split.

Wellcome
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49133625
Crick
www.crick.ac.uk/news/2019-01-29_our-response-to-no-deal-brexit-inquiry
Russell Group
russellgroup.ac.uk/news/warning-against-no-deal-brexit/
Natural History Museum
www.museumsassociation.org/museums-journal/news/08022017-fears-of-brexit-brain-drain-national-museums

ListeningQuietly

Yes, we know - 48% of the country voted remain and a vocal minority (mostly liberal democrats) don't accept the result of the referendum. Adding to that, quite a few EU citizens working in academia in the UK, would very much prefer we don't leave the EU either.

87% comes from the EU itself www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-analysis/reports/Documents/2016/economic-impact-of-eu-research-funding-in-uk-universities.pdf.

Figures from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy analysing support from the EU’s Horizon 2020 research programme show that the proportion of funds allocated to universities in the UK had dropped to 24.22 per cent by the end of May, down from a high of 25.47 per cent in February 2017. The UK has received €11.4bn since the funding scheme began in 2014.

The UK has also expressed interest in participating in Horizon Europe, the next round of funding for 2021-27, although as a non-EU “associate” partner it would not have a political voice in influencing the programme.

In June, the European Commission issued a draft paper indicating that UK participation in the next round of funding could be possible, but said the country would not be able to receive funds greater than those it had paid in, and that it could be excluded from projects there was a risk of undermining strategic goals.

www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f8750114-9c91-11e8-ab77-f854c65a4465

CBI
www.cbi.org.uk/the-business-view/
IoD
[[https://www.iod.com/news-campaigns/brexit/]
FSB
www.fsb.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/no-deal-brexit-a-danger-to-jobs-growth-and-the-economy
ICAEW
www.icaew.com/technical/economy/brexit

90% of university staff opposed Brexit.
72% of UK university research staff are British nationals.
Suppose all 10% who support Brexit were British nationals (no furriners at all supported it).
That suggests 62% of research staff still oppose Brexit.
62% is still a decisive majority (lot more decisive than 52%).
16% of Uni research staff were EU nationals, btw, in that survey. Kind of a small minority.
Your move

TUC
www.tuc.org.uk/campaigns/our-brexit-campaign
LGA
www.local.gov.uk/topics/european-and-international/no-deal
SOLACE
www.solace.org.uk/ill-words-and-ill-deeds-putting-democracys-health-at-risk/

Chemistry
www.rsc.org/campaigning-outreach/policy/brexit-preparedness/
Physics
beta.iop.org/iop-highlights-risks-no-deal-brexit-uk-science-and-innovation
Biology
www.rsb.org.uk/news/14-news/2088-rsb-joins-learned-societies-and-other-organisations-to-speak-out-against-the-dangers-of-a-no-deal-brexit

lljkk
Several of your links (2 from 2016) express worries about a 'brain-drain' in academia after the referendum - 40% of academic staff might leave the UK...but there appears to be no evidence of that;

Jun 2018 I’m deluged with outstanding applications for academic posts.

"Some employers complain about not having enough good candidates to fill roles. I envy them. Imagine working in an industry where entry-level jobs require “world-leading” research records, where far more people are graduating from PhD programmes than the academy will ever employ.The problem is that nearly everyone on the long list for your new permanent lectureship is amazing.How on earth do you choose between them?"

www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2018/jun/01/academics-candidates-outstanding-application-recruitment

62% is still a decisive majority (lot more decisive than 52%).
And what percentage of the population work in academia?

If, at the very least, the need to provide 'links' as "evidence" to substantiate any opinion expressed on this 'parenting' forum is almost enough to drive many people towards Leave - just to get it over and done with.

They are perfectly entitled to ignore their constituents

Wow. So votes don’t count?

500+ MPs voted to invoke Article 50.

Voters can change their minds in a future GE if they wish. Article 49 allows for a previous EU member to rejoin.

Of course votes count, but MPs represent all of their constituents not just those that voted for them. We elect them to do what they think is best. That's how our version of democracy works, there are others.

Impressive out Clavinova-ing Clavinova @ListeningQuietly

@clavinova @hateisnotgood

Do either of you have that medication stockpile list I've been asking about for a year? It needs to be factual even on a parenting forum because sadly some parents need meds and some children do to.

Wow. So votes don’t count?

I was voting for 27 years before the candidate I voted for got elected, so there is no wow from me. First hand experience told me that my vote probably didn't count in those years. Probably because when the constituency becomes marginal then your vote does begin to count.

If, at the very least, the need to provide 'links' as "evidence" to substantiate any opinion expressed on this 'parenting' forum is almost enough to drive many people towards Leave - just to get it over and done with.

Well if someone is telling you black is white, it's a good idea if they give you some evidence! Do you remember that blue and black dress a year back that some people saw as yellow and grey? It all depended on how your eyes viewed it, but you had to go to the actual dress to see that it was blue and black. A trivial example.

A more serious example: my DS works in scientific research. A Portuguese colleague and a Spanish one immediately upped and left. He works with a German colleague who used to be a neighbour of his in England but left a little before him. My son has now joined the German colleague. Fact not cut and paste from someone who has no first hand knowledge.

Yep, I too would like to see this list of medications - my MIL, DB and BIL are all heavily dependent on them. Perhaps though because I am not a parent to them I should just be saying 'whatever'?

Good points have been raised about medication supply.

Both of my parents are elderly. Father mid 80s and mother mid 70s. Between them they take various forms of steroids and painkillers.

None of my DBs medications are made in the UK. The lack of them won't kill him immediately but will seriously compromise his quality of life and would shorten it.

Yes I am worried about the medicine supply too - my mother has sciatica and back pain and takes tramadol and amatriptiline (spelling?). Tramadol is impossible to stockpile - she can't even renew a prescription a few days early without the GP raising eyebrows, I don't know about the other one. I don't want to think about what would happen if she couldn't get hold of either medication.

The EU have been working since May 2017 to try to ensure that medical supplies are not disrupted. They are confident they are mitigating any problems. Where problems still occur companies can apply for temporary exemptions.