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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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orangeshoebox · 28/07/2019 10:33

wrt jrm and his 'style': I often receive letters from india which are very formal and 'imperial' sounding.
I guess that's what it will look like.

bellinisurge · 28/07/2019 10:42

My late Mum once wrote me a cheque made out to Mrs [DH's initial] [DH's surname] because that was what she had been taught. Tbe bank wouldn't accept it. Although all communication on joint matters is with DH first and not me. Hilarious because I'm the one who deals with it.
Also my Mum got upset when they used her initial when she was widowed because, in her eyes, it meant [whisper it] divorce not widowhood.
Unlike JRM, my mum was born in tbe 1930s.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 10:49

bellini I was taught in the 1960s to write to a married woman using her OH's initials Blush
and that widowhood meant adressing her with her own initials again-

My late Mum was widowed late 1960s
and the change in all her official correspondence was rubbing it in at a very low point.

borntobequiet · 28/07/2019 10:53

Not often you get the Jennings books mentioned on these threads. Many years ago (80s) I became convinced that they were written by Anthony Powell using the pseudonym Anthony Buckeridge. I think I detected similarities in style. Anyway (perhaps I was drunk at the time) I wrote to Powell and asked him if this were so. I got a very nice letter back saying no, and he wasn’t familiar with the series, but his good friend George Orwell was fond of such stories and might have liked them (of course this was a long time after Orwell’s death).

howabout · 28/07/2019 10:55

"The plan might just work". Chatham House Director Robin Niblett on PM Johnson and what lies ahead ...

www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/boris-johnson-s-plan-just-might-work

prettybird · 28/07/2019 10:56

But the point (as you know Wink) BigChoc is that that was 50, fifty, years ago. You shouldn't be Blush

Times move on and conventions change. Most people know this - but Smug would appear to be one of the exceptions Hmm

It doesn't bode well for the advances in Women's and workers' rights since the 60s if Smug continues to try to roll back the clock to his parody perception of the way the HoC "should" operate Sad

derxa · 28/07/2019 11:00

Only up to a point. 'Fronted adverbials' - what on earth are those? Exactly. Poor kids

The80sweregreat · 28/07/2019 11:08

I loved the adventures of Jennings and Derbyshire ( poor kid, another Ron Wesley long before JK made him up)
I wanted to go to boarding school but I have a feeling the boys one would be better than a girls one!
It seemed so much fun and Jennings was so naughty but loveable too!

Inniu · 28/07/2019 11:10

I think Johnson will go for a GE and win a majority. Then ditch the DUP and make a deal with Europe based on a border in the Irish Sea with NI getting “special status”

The80sweregreat · 28/07/2019 11:11

I bet Rees mogg wasn't naughty or up to 'japes' at school. He left all
That to the Boris's of the this world.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 11:14

My primary and grammar schools were very traditional,
learning by rote, separate desks in neat rows etc as group work hadn't started then
(perfect for an Aspie like me)

We learned a sensible amount of grammar, imo, but concentrated on plenty of practice at writing essays etc

However, I didn't learn esoteric terms like "fronted adverbials" Shock are and imo they are a waste of time for kids

The80sweregreat · 28/07/2019 11:16

I went to a rough old place in east London and we used fountain pens!
RM would approve of that.

DGRossetti · 28/07/2019 11:16

I also inherited some of my DMs brothers Billy Bunter books Grin

The80sweregreat · 28/07/2019 11:17

Poor old Billy Bunter! Bullied for being himself.
At least Jennings liked his chums and stuck up for Derby!
Fabulous books !

howabout · 28/07/2019 11:23

On marginal seats compare and contrast the Labour and Conservative target lists with the LibDem list posted yesterday. The LibDems had 5 where a swing of under 5% or 5,000 from Conservative was needed. Both Labour and Conservatives hold upwards of 50 where a swing of less than this from one to the other (or indeed through the middle) makes a difference.

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

prettybird · 28/07/2019 11:30

I used to be am still, to certain extent, a grammar nerd pedant; my mum was a very good (by all accounts) English teacher and taught me well Smile Even I didn't know what fronted adverbials were Confused

I did enjoy my gerunds and gerundives though Grin (learnt initially via Latin Wink).

Fortunately here in Scotland, we weren't and aren't subject to Gove's rolling back the clock à la Smug reforms Smile And ds, a product of modern Scottish teaching, is actually pretty good at English Grin (But there again, he's also had the difference between "it's" and "its" his mum's bugbear and when to use "between" and "amongst" if referring to 2 or more items his dad's bugbear drummed into him Wink)

bellinisurge · 28/07/2019 11:35

@Inniu - I agree with you.

DGRossetti · 28/07/2019 11:36

Latin has proved to be a wonderful tool for dissecting other languages. Learned so much more about grammar from Latin than English Language classes. Which seemed to consist of endless precis - which I was brilliant at before they started teaching it.

I would have loved to have done endless creative writing, but that isn't what learning is about. My cynicism about organised education is second only to my cynicism about organised religion.

PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 11:45

Many of the undergrads I have taught have had incredibly poor written English, which is another reason I’m pleased about the reintroduction of grammar. I don’t think most older people realise just how much it slipped in the 1980s/90s. Can’t tell you if goves reforms are excessive as it’s all meaningless to me which is kind of my point Wink
Definitely don’t agree with all of his reforms- for me, coursework is where I learnt how to write and how to structure a document. IMO big written projects are an invaluable part of schoolwork. I am also very angry about the devaluation of so called “soft” subjects but that’s the topic of another thread.

howabout · 28/07/2019 12:02

Just for completeness this is the SNP target list. I would anticipate Labour losing 6 of its 7 seats back to the SNP in a GE. In contrast I would expect the Conservative seats to get safer as they consolidate the tactical anti-Indyref vote. In fact, there are 10 SNP held seats on the Conservative target list where the swing required is less than 5% where this could also apply. The LibDems also have a realistic target.
(There are also SNP seats on the Labour target list but I doubt they will make progress).

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/snp

So in summary my prediction would be SNP staying roughly the same but "the rest" swapping from Labour to Conservative.

Hazardtired · 28/07/2019 12:21

mobile.twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1154423719630135296

Apolgies if already posted didn't have time to check.

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing
BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 12:34

Really interesting data on the swing seats, howabout

Any clanger - or rightwing fake shock horror about Corbyn, Juncker etc - during the election period could change a lot of seats

BJ would certainly not call a GE if he had a working majority
but he would be wise to choose his time, rather than let the Opposition choose when the economy is in meltdown

I hope he isn't wise ! 😂

However, seriously, it's because if we have a no Deal, then imo a 100% hard Brexit govt needs to be given at least a year,
to see if Keynes or whatever strategy can reduce the damage to what most voters would grudgingly accept.

Otherwise, Brexiters will always be claiming their Brexit was "stolen"

A few would still do so, even after 1 year or 5 years (50 for JRM !),
but I won't accept unlimited damage to the country, just to convince a hardcore 5-10% remnant

prettybird · 28/07/2019 12:45

I don't disagree with howabout's analysis - although I do know a few Conservatives who are re-assessing their "Unionist" leanings Hmm and even if they couldn't bring themselves to vote SNP, would either abstain/spoil their vote or vote LibDem.

The other "unknown" is whether the Brexit Party would split the (Unionist) Conservative vote in Scotland. If it had any sense which it doesn't it would step aside to prevent that potential.

woodpigeons · 28/07/2019 12:58

Quite Peregrina.
I bought an English guide, recommended by the school, to help DGS who starts his GCSEs this school year.
I cannot understand the terminology. I left school in 1964 with, among other subjects, As in English language and literature. I didn’t do A levels as the requirement then for art college was 5 O levels.
I can write. I taught at university. I successfully completed a PhD 15 years ago.
I tried hard to work it out but then had to pass it on to DH whose subject is English language. I’d hoped to share the workload with him doing Maths.
The only good thing learning maths did for me is a thorough knowledge of my times tables. I really am quite hopeless at everything else and always have been.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 13:02

Same in England and Wales, pretty

Farage standing down BXP looks the only route to give the Tories a working majority after a post-Brexit GE

Otherwise, all predictions to date are for a hung Parliament