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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

OP posts:
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Oakenbeach · 28/07/2019 08:41

@BigChocFrenzy

All good points. You’re right, there are various factors that favour the Tories that I hadn’t properly considered.

Oakenbeach · 28/07/2019 08:44

Laura Kuenssburg putting no deal at one in a million seems very optimistic right now.

Wasn’t it Boris Johnson who said this at the Hustings? I’m assuming LK was simply quoting him.

MockerstheFeManist · 28/07/2019 08:45

Dead Ringers is going to have to change that running joke, now that we have in government, in addition to the liar Johnson, the foreign agent Patel, the leaker Williamson, the criminal fraud Shaps and the racist Goldsmith, now we have

(Big Voice)

....NADINE DORRIES!!!!

howabout · 28/07/2019 08:48

Joyne Boyne, Irish writer, on JRM grammar:
@JacobReesMogg
is wrong to ban the comma after 'and' in staff letters. One would not use it when writing "Jacob Rees-Mogg is tall and stupid", but one would use it when writing "Jacob Rees-Mogg is tall and, despite his expensive education, stupid."

I beg to differ. "The tall JRM is stupid despite his expensive education" elegantly avoids commas and ands. Since tall is adjectival and stupid is a noun in the context it is more grammatically accurate. His stupidity now gains far more prominence in the sentence. If one wanted to emphasise the failings of expensive education more then the subclause could move to the start of the sentence.

Now I really really really want to discuss grammar all day. Sadly I am not in jest.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 08:49

The new-Chancellor has pledged “significant extra funding” to get Britain “fully ready to leave” the EU on October 31 with or without a deal Hmm

95 days before Brexit, he's asking officials to say what the ports need 🤦🏻‍♀️

Dublin, Calais and Rotterdam started planning a couple of years ago, with detailled EU advice helping them along since

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1158709/brexit-news-latest-sajid-javid-boris-johnson-no-deal-vote-leave-eu-philip-hammond

“In my first day in office as Chancellor, I tasked officials to urgently identify where more money needs to be invested to get Britain fully ready to leave on October 31 – deal or no deal"

Mistigri · 28/07/2019 08:54

This is a really good C4 interview which discusses the likelihood of no deal among other things.

One interesting idea that is punted is that both the EU and the remain parties should just stand back and do nothing. Boris wants parliament to stop no-deal so he can go to the country and run a "tell them again" election in which parliament, the EU and remainers are portrayed as traitors. So don't do it; let him get to the cliff edge and look over.

I certainly think the EU should just shrug and get on with something else.

Here it is, worth 30 mins of anyone's time:

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 08:58

It's fine for professional writers to dissect JRM's grammar

  • they are far more qualified to do that than to analyse his politics

For me, the key issue is his outrageous authoritarianism is laying out grammar rules for civil servants - who will be v senior if submitting written documents to him

Even worse is the total idiocy in requiring imperial measures

  • as a scientist, I appreciate the calculation advantages that metric brought us decades ago and totally reject the backwards "Imperialism"

His Idiocy in Office - likely a JRM feature not a bug - is likely to increase the risk of arithmetical error (as crashed that NASA Mars ship)

Brexit brings idiocies that I never imagined, but the demand to revert to Imperial is an idiocy too far

Mistigri · 28/07/2019 08:59

I don't think electoral calculators are much help at the moment. Shifts in party allegiance are not evenly distributed, but regional or even local.

Britain won't be ready to leave on 31/10; great big fundamental gaps in legislation for a start. Plus direct rule in Ireland. Gonna be fun if it happens but I don't think it will. Boris wants a GE but he can't have a GE after no deal.

So smart money has to be on an extension to hold a GE and hope that this changes the electoral calculus to make a deal possible (either enough Tory seats to let Boris have a border in the Irish Sea, or a Labour-remain party coalition).

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:01

imo v unlikely that the HoC can stop No Deal

i assume the BJ team is plotting a GE on the basis of either
"we have Brexitted"
or
EU "punishment" crashing the economy

depending on whether he plans a November GE or a spring one, respectively

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 28/07/2019 09:04

Good grief, why do I ever watch BBC news? Did anyone see Tom Harwood (I think that was his name) from Guido Fawkes reviewing the papers earlier?

Apparently, it’s great to have a government that believes in this country and has a keep calm and carry on attitude. We might well end up with a better deal because of it and even if we don’t it seems No Deal
might be good for the country as we’d have so many more freedoms once we’re free of the ‘clutches of Brussels’ including being able to ‘slash tariffs from day one’. Yes there could be serious problems but hey, we have a whole three months to prepare. It’s just such a shame the Westminster commentariat are whipping up fear.

Oh, and we don’t need a GE to give the government a mandate for No Deal as apparently we already did that in 2017.

So there I sat raging at the tv ‘but they didn’t get a majority!’

It no longer shocks me that this stuff goes unchallenged on the BBC and is allowed to be spouted as fact with no attempt at balance, but it still enrages me.

I feel like my blood pressure has gone through the roof.

Angry
BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:07

It depends on whether the shifts are more local than 97, when the predictors worked on the GE vote %
The other predictor worked for the EU elections too

iirc, they also have a predictor with regional inputs, but we would need regional poll % as input and I don't have that

I wouldn't rely heavily on predictors, but imo they probably show the broad seat distribution for a snapshot in time
Just a tool, that is at least much better than the alternative of going by feel wrt seats

Mistigri · 28/07/2019 09:11

i assume the BJ team is plotting a GE on the basis of either
"we have Brexitted"
or
EU "punishment" crashing the economy

A post no-deal govt would be firefighting and desperately trying the pass legislation just to do "basic stuff" (watch that C4 interview with Peter Foster). There won't be a post no-deal GE. A government can't leave the country in ungoverned chaos for 2 months and expect to be re-elected.

And this is ALL about Boris being re-elected. He doesn't give a shit about Brexit.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 28/07/2019 09:15

It’s just such a shame the Westminster commentariat are whipping up fear.

Should have been is. I did it to wind up JRM.

NoWordForFluffy · 28/07/2019 09:17

Bearing in mind it won't take long before there's disruption with the food supply, due to JiT and port / customs chaos, even if the economic impact isn't felt for a while, the no deal impact on every day's lives will be relatively swift.

People will not take kindly to food disruption at any time, let alone leading up to Christmas. It's the perfect storm to need to avoid.

A post no-deal GE would be a disaster for Johnson due to this.

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2019 09:19

Agree with mistri. They only give so much information.

The sampling isn't sophisticated enough to really make really accurate predictions. You need a pre GE style poll where they have done sampling by constituency. These are expensive and only done rarely, both for general public consumption and privately for internal data analysis by parties.

I would expect a Johnson bounce though. Especially over the summer where he's not actually doing anything.

At the last GE even constituency polling WASNT picking up what I was on the ground locally and I think there was only one seat predictor that got my constituency right.

Remember the majorities in some constituency are so small that it's not just down to what people say they will vote but also down to whether they will turnout. Some polls are weighted to reflected this, but not all.

And these polls automatically discard anyone who says 'I don't know' which has been consistently around 20% of those they ask (not checked the figure lately). Again this 20% is only factored in for pre GE polls because trying to work out what this group will do in practice is expensive and difficult.

And that's the group that wins GEs.

Personally I don't know how I will vote. I've definitely been a key demographic in the past as I'm a swing voter.

So until you see a full on constituency poll or one which includes don't knows, you are only getting a very rough reflection of the mood of people. That's useful in its own right but it does need the usual reminder of the cavet of their limitations.

And when you see one of those type of polls, a GE will have already been announced or you can be very confident that one is going to be called imminently.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 28/07/2019 09:20

i assume the BJ team is plotting a GE on the basis of either "we have Brexitted" or EU "punishment" crashing the economy

Seeing reference to Johnson's 'war cabinet' today.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:23

I definitely don't regard predictors as accurate, or polls atm

However, they are useful to counteract predictions by anyone going on feel or hope

It will be v interesting, as a maths wonk, to compare predictions to an actual GE
So that part of me is eager for one 😂

PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 09:24

Keep trying to post but mumsnet’s a right mess this morning! Trying to say that grammar pedantry is another form of social snobbery. It wasn’t taught in states schools for the whole of my generation of school kids (80s/90s) so it’s a great way of filtering out input from anyone that isn’t privately or grammar educated. I bollock privately educated relatives that pick on my grammar for this reason.

Not a gove fan but at least he brought grammar back into the curriculum at primary level. It’s boring and tedious but today’s kids won’t be excluded from certain arenas of learning/work in the way that my generation are.

Peregrina · 28/07/2019 09:25

We have one electoral test coming up this week.

Now suppose it goes 1) LibDem, 2) Brexit party, 3) Tory, 4) Labour, what do you think the headlines will be? Tory loses to LibDems, or LABOUR PUSHED INTO 4th PLACE? In a seat where Labour never does well.

PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 09:25

Also, languages evolve over time which completely flies over the head of your average grammar pedant. Grammar, by it’s very nature, is not something that should be set in stone.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:29

"he can't have a GE after no deal"

His statements are clearly geared to a GE soon
and he has said we won't have a GE before 31 October
(as far as one can trust a proven liar)

It's a matter of HoC arithmatic, rather than what BJ wants

BJ wants a 5-year term as PM, but he is unlikely to retain his wafer-thin majority past the end of the year, if that long.
The opposition should be able to win a voNC by then - IF they actually want to be lumbered with handling No Deal

The might be wise to sit back and let the Tories take all the blame

  • otherwise Brexiters will forever claim Brexit only failed because they were not in charge 🤔
and the rightwing / Tories might bounce right back at the following GE

BJ might bite the bullet, knowing a GE is inevitable and try to have it before voters actually realise the disaster that No Deal will be

@red what do you think ?Hmm

^The most serious effects of No Deal will be cumulative and take 3-6 months to show up,
maybe more before bankruptcies, unemployment etc start affecting significant numbers of people^

^The first few weeks will have sufficient effects to let Brexiters enjoy the Blitz spirit and claim ND is not so bad,
but probably not enough to lose BJ votes unless the govt seriously cocks up planning

We've read the plan to restrict entry from the UK side to Dover, with the priority order for import shipments
If they can maintain that, it should avoid serious shortages for a few weeks at least^
^
of course,that is assuming we don't have major govt cockups, maybe a few old turds left by Grayling .....^

MockerstheFeManist · 28/07/2019 09:34

JRM's lexical hangups are nothing to do with grammar. They are a matter of style.

All publications have a style giude for consistency and brand identity. Single or double quotes. Oxford comma or not. Forms of address.

(Suspect JRM would just love to go back to the days when BBC News called the head of the Coal Board "Sir Ian" and the leader of the Miners Union "Scargill.")

Regard imperial, ye gods what bollocks is this? Good luck with exporting your rods, poles, perches, bushels and pecks, quires and reams etc.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:37

We shouldn't discount how much outright media lies will fool much of the public
and make them think the EU is suffering more

There is a Brexit thread based on the ludicrous Telegraph headline "German economy is in freefall"
and the Brexit numpties believe this absolutely 🤦🏻‍♀️

It will take serious personal experiences of No Deal to convince Brexiters, even most of the apathetic public,
that No Deal has been a disaster

Even longer if they are lied to that "the other side" is doing worse

  • expect claims that we need to just hold out and they will give in to us soon
PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 09:39

I have only published in scientific journals where the style (except for font size etc) is generally “we don’t care as long as you meet the word count and the reviewers like it” Grin.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:42

mockers Publications are one thing, re "style"
but it is extraordinary to make such pedantic - and v old fashioned - grammatical rules for înternal documents,
The typical requirements, if any, do not specify 19th century forms of address, either