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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

OP posts:
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Peregrina · 28/07/2019 09:43

Not a gove fan but at least he brought grammar back into the curriculum at primary level.

Only up to a point. 'Fronted adverbials' - what on earth are those? I remember in my first year of infants (1956) Mrs McKenzie shouting "a verb is a DOING word." I was in today's equivalent of year 5 when we did adjectives and adverbs and I found them a bit tricky, but I passed the 11+ and later my O Level English language, which was the last year for my exam board of having a grammar section on the paper.

This emphasis on grammar caused an especial problem with foreign languages. Fine if you could conjugate verbs til the cows came home for a dead language like Latin. Pretty useless if after 5 years of learning French you went to France and couldn't even successfully order a cup of coffee.

The pendulum has now swung too far the other way, and you can write dreary nonsense as long as it's grammatical.

prettybird · 28/07/2019 09:47

Iirc, the near SNP clean sweep in Scotland in 2015 was only "predicted" in the Exit Polls and nothing on that scale had been suggested in advance Shock

I remember Nicola trying to dampen down speculation in the TV studios. It was initially suggested that they could win every single seat: as it was, after recounts Wink, 3 stayed with their incumbents - but were turned into marginals. Shock

This involved major, major swings all across the country: iirc, one was 43% Shock so strange things can happen when the people get pissed off Wink For example, in East Dunbartonshire (to use a topical example Wink), the SNP moved from a very low 4th behind the Lib Dems, Labour and Conservative, to win.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:47

Me too, pigeon
and many authors are writing in English as a foreign language too
There can be some very tortured Germanic grammatical constructions !

All companies have had a publication style though, but always modern
JRM is extraordinary because he really is harking back to the 19th century

  • I had assumed for some time that his rules were a spoof and i can't understand why he is not being laughed out of govt

If he is put in charge of any contingency planning, expect sailing ships - with sailors being flogged with cat o' nine tails -
and carrier pigeons

MockerstheFeManist · 28/07/2019 09:51

BigChocFrenzy

It's by no means uncommon with incoming ministers. Sir John Stanley demanded that every new document must be presented to him individually by hand in its own manilla folder.

Then there was "Working With Liam Byrne"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/3468400/Cabinet-Minister-tells-civil-servants-when-to-bring-coffee-and-soup.html

Politics seems to attract a certain sort of self-important pratt.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:51

pretty imo seat predictors only work well for parties that get over about 15% nationally
or if the predictors have regional inputs
For the SNP, there should be regional inputs available sometimes

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 09:53

mockers 🤦🏻‍♀️
It helps explain why we are where we are

RedToothBrush · 28/07/2019 09:55
  1. "I don't want a GE before 31st Oct". Is probably true cos of the dates now, though equally he might just be saying because he wants to create a villain narrative about how he was forced to have a GE before 31st Oct against his will. In reality he is in complete control of this now and would only do it if he felt he could get an increased majority to enable a smoother no deal exit for himself.

Thus I think this unlikely and its a genuine promise of no GE before 31st Oct.

  1. A GE triggered for immediately after 31st Oct because he's gone against parliaments (and possibly the courts judgement) for no deal is a realistic prospect. This would be out of his control technically but he is willing to do things which he realises are highly controversial and antagonistic which will provoke the situation. Parliament doesn't want to be suspended on Oct 31st itself, but depending on Johnson's actions this isn't beyond the realms of possibility. Though it being triggered on 31st October itself is very much an option as a protest vote.

We would in effect be in constitutional crisis if Johnson defined parliament and the courts. It would provoke huge outrage amongst tory MPs and mean party civil war on a big scale. But the 'pledge no deal or be deselected' stuff does make me think this is what Johnson is actively planning and views as the way to 'unite his party through strong leadership'.

  1. A GE will be triggered in the weeks after 31st due to the fall out of the effects of no deal itself. This is possible depending on how badly prepared we are and how much chaos there is. Johnson perhaps realises this is an option but he is now trying to build in political resistance for himself, with promises for the longer term and rhetoric about 'the enemy' of the EU.

I actually think this less likely than no 2. Once he's no dealed, a GE only would add to the chaos and crisis and this will scare many MPs. You'll see calls for unity in that atmosphere, "for the sake of the country".

So yes, my money is on a forced no deal constitutional crisis scenario being the most likely point of weakness and that's the active plan.

Oct 31st is a key date not because of actual no deal but because of the length of Cummings proposed tenure. Its a campaign footing.

OP posts:
prettybird · 28/07/2019 09:57

If JRM is forcing the use of "Esq" - I understand that until now, it was voluntary and the Clerk would ask a new MP, after they'd taken the Oath, how they wished to be addressed, Mr or Esq - I can anticipate him banning the use of "Ms" in the HoC and insisting that married women give up their maiden name and be referred to by their husband's initial Hmm He really is from another century Confused and I'm not even sure it's either the 20th OR the 19th century Hmm

PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 09:59

It’s very much something the ministers in the “Thick of It” would do Big Choc and “Mockers” 🤦‍♀️

Peregrina · 28/07/2019 09:59

Iirc, the near SNP clean sweep in Scotland in 2015 was only "predicted" in the Exit Polls and nothing on that scale had been suggested in advance

I think pretty much happened in 1997 when Blair won. We knew Labour was on course for victory, but the scale of it was shocking. The late Tony King said 'This isn't a landslide, this is an asteroid hitting the planet.'

PigeonofDoom · 28/07/2019 10:01

This is entirely why I use my professional title when asked if I’m Miss or Mrs. Hardly ever use it otherwise.

LonelyTiredandLow · 28/07/2019 10:01

JRM is trying to impress on the civil service that they are his minions (as well as show the public his expensive education means he knows 'better' than them) - IMO it's all part of the plan to discredit and rubbish their abilities in the public sphere.

prettybird · 28/07/2019 10:05

BigChoc - I think in 2015, even the regional predictors were caught out Confused.

At least in 2017, the special (and non standard) YouGov by constituency polling was predicting the unexpected - and getting laughed at for it, before being proved to be the most accurate polling Grin

I don't get the impression that the pollsters have really learnt from that - at least not in the public polling Hmm. I suspect the parties have private polling that is more sophisticated and accurate.

MockerstheFeManist · 28/07/2019 10:07

It does cut across the Parliamentary rules about how MPs wish to be addressed. Some like to flaunt their doctorates, others keep them fiiled away (Gordon Brown, probably the most highly qualified PM ever, for all the good it did him.)

Tony Benn and now his son like to keep their double-barrel off the record, as did John Major-Ball.

Some prefer their second names over their first, such as James Harold Wilson and Leonard James Callaghan.

Then there were all of Margaret Thatcher's "Old Estonians," many of whom prefered the Anglicised versions of their surnames: Nigel Leibson, Michael Hect, Oliver Letwinski etc.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 10:08

Philip Hammond backs Rory Stewart to lead charge against no‑deal Brexit

So that's Hammond's plan Hmm
Too little, too late ?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/philip-hammond-backs-rory-stewart-to-lead-charge-against-no-deal-brexit-500xp7dg9

“The plan is for a huge national campaign a bit like the People’s Vote, which will mobilise MPs and voters with adverts, rallies and original research.

Philip Hammond is talking to people and there will be no shortage of support from donors.

He’s convinced Mr Stewart has the most cut-through with voters

The new campaign would include a Parliamentary wing loosely based on the hard-Brexit backing European Research Group.

Hazardtired · 28/07/2019 10:12

I think in a no deal scenario the media and SM will play a massive part in how shortages are received in the public opinion. Like singing watching the BBC this morning who will they have on telly telling us how to think and feel?

From what I can see, which is not factual, med shortages for non life saving meds will be quick. They may happen in small instances as the deadline looms closer and stockpiling essentials takes priority. Will that get reported? Will a spin be added? How will the sellers of meds react to the desperation? How will the buyer, the NHS, react to the sellers reaction?

If supermarkets feel the pressure to ensure they have something to sell post no deal will a similar scenario to the above occur where long life food stockpiling takes priority to fresh food imports pre exit date?

There's room for the media to pick this apart in the lead up. I dont think they will because "scaremongering" and we've had a lead up to an exit date twice before. Will this lead up feel different and make us react differently?

If this was a tv drama it would be good...

LonelyTiredandLow · 28/07/2019 10:13

FWIW the only time I ever remember seeing Esq. on an envelope was always to my Grandfather and when I was younger he told me this was because he "owned land" - I always assumed it was something to do with that. It doesn't make sense though if JRM thinks all men should have it...although my inner cynic suspects this is another pandering to male ego's Hmm.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 10:17

red I thought BJ would go for a GE so he can control the timing, instead of the Opposition doing so

The tiny Tory HoC majority will soon be no more

So unless BJ goes for an early GE, before the full No Deal disaster is apparent to most,
he would be at the mercy of the Opposition deciding the rough timing of a VoNC and hence GE,

i.e. they'd VoNC after the economy had clearly fallen off the cliff, justifying the disruption by claiming the country must be rescued

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 10:20

"Esquire" was briefly mentioned in my primary school English lessons, mid-1960s,
but we were merely told that we might occasionally see this old-fashioned form of address, but we were not to use it because it was too old-fashioned !

BigChocFrenzy · 28/07/2019 10:30

Johnson’s plan to take Britain out of the EU on October 31 potentially without an exit deal could be torpedoed by a Conservative MP defecting to the Liberal Democrats

< that won't prevent automatic ND as time runs out, but would help in a VoNC >

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1158713/Brexit-news-no-deal-EU-exit-Tory-MP-Liberal-Democrat-Conservative-Party-Philip-Hammond

There are rumours the unnamed Conservative Party MP plans to join the Liberal Democrats at their autumn party conference.

New Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson is said to be actively wooing a number of Tory MPs.
...
< not sure how well peerages would work. Looks blatant Hmm Maybe for ex-Cabinet ministers ? >

There are reports the Liberal Democrats are wooing potential Tory defectors by offering them peerages if they go on to lose their seats.

A Liberal Democrat source told the Sunday Times

“with the Liberal Democrats expected to win more seats at the next general election, the party should qualify to nominate new peers.
It means that those tempted to defect could be offered an escape route if their decision to defect backfires and they lose their seats."

DGRossetti · 28/07/2019 10:30

Esq. got mentioned a lot in Jennings books ...

prettybird · 28/07/2019 10:30

Howabout mentioned earlier (on this thread or the last one - we're going through them so quickly again Wink) that the Scottish Government is under pressure to spend the Barnett Consequentials also on Police and Education.

I've noticed the same headlines - but think that they'd be wise to wait until a) any spending actually happens/is passed in a budget (not a foregone conclusion Hmm) and the Barnett consequential is triggered and b) keep the money in a war chest to deal with the consequences of No Deal Sad

They shouldn't make commitments they can't be sure that they'll be able to enact.

MotherOfSoupDragons · 28/07/2019 10:31

I did a secretarial course in 1980. Was given same advice as BCF re Esquire. Tosser. I hope there are some witty attempts to subvert his edicts.

The80sweregreat · 28/07/2019 10:31

When I was a kid in the 70s I heard men saying ' squire' a lot.
A place far removed from where Rees-mogg was brought up and went to school of course!
I can imagine letters from courts or lawyers might use this term esquire still?
I have seen it on letters etc but many many moons ago.

DGRossetti · 28/07/2019 10:32

If you take the top 10 marginal seats that aren't Tory, and take the majorities involved ... that's how many votes and voters you'd need to nobble to swing an election.

It's a frighteningly small number. And there's nothing in any law to stop organisations uncovering who those people are.