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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

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Hazardtired · 27/07/2019 15:15

tobe think buff meant Westminster i think...Johnson is turning the UK into states competing with each other - possibly?

Lonely it's lovely to hear your DD will have more options Smile hope she keeps up the maths. Long live the progress my Jr school teacher used to say i was the reason corporal punishment should be legal Grin in their defence I was verbally capable and advanced kid who was very popular so could lead mini revolts

ListeningQuietly · 27/07/2019 15:21

I am finding life much more relaxing now that I've accepted that its all insane and there is nothing I can do about it other than look after those around me.

Bojo is insane
Corbyn is insane
its all insane

tobee · 27/07/2019 15:24

Right thanks Iam and Haz. Was reading and messaging someone so confused myself

Peregrina · 27/07/2019 15:36

Queenofthorns - unfortunately, in theory they can continue simply to refuse the Section 30 notice required to hold another Indyref

Didn't the Government try this just over a hundred years ago with Ireland? If it really is the will of the people, it eventually won't be thwarted. Consider also the collapse of the communist bloc.

SwedishEdith · 27/07/2019 15:37

There aren't that many Lab/LD marginals though. Most are Con'/LD and I can see Tories losing a lot of these.

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Alsohuman · 27/07/2019 15:41

There are a lot of Labour voters who are completely frustrated with the lack of clarity on Brexit and will happily vote for certainty in a GE. I can see a lot of Labour seats turning yellow.

ListeningQuietly · 27/07/2019 15:53

I momentum are dumb enough to put in Labour candidates who lurch to the left
and ERG are dumb enough to put in candidates who cause a lurch to the right
the middle ground will be a good chunk of the populace

JC has really run out of options now
because even if he came out in support of Remain now, nobody would believe him.
They would believe Kier if he led the party, but not JC

placemats · 27/07/2019 15:56

I would rather eat my ballot paper, spit it out, put it in the ballot box than vote Lib Dem. tories in disguise

I'm a disaffected Labour voter.

If they were standing, I'd vote Green.

placemats · 27/07/2019 15:59

Sheffield voted leave in the EU referendum.

SwedishEdith · 27/07/2019 16:01

Hallam isn't a Leave area.

placemats · 27/07/2019 16:04

If the Brexit Party were canny stupid enough they would go for Sheffield Hallam. That would split the Tory vote. Neither would win.

However! Don't underestimate Johnson & Co in their desperate attempt to increase the perilous majority.

placemats · 27/07/2019 16:08

Hallam isn't a leave area

So that's why the Lib Dems, bastions of the Remain Vote now, lost in 2017?

Alsohuman · 27/07/2019 16:08

@placemats, what makes you think the Brexit party would waste its time in Remain Hallam?

Alsohuman · 27/07/2019 16:10

Nick Clegg lost Hallam in 2015 to punish him for the coalition and austerity.

howabout · 27/07/2019 16:10

In the 2017 GE, in the 60 Tory seats with the smallest majority the average vote share of other parties was as follows:

Labour: 38.7%
LibDems: 6.7%

In these seats the average Tory vote was 44%.

That requires a 6% swing to Labour and no LibDem defections for a Tory loss. The more likely scenario is defection to LibDem from Tory and Labour which cancel each other out.

(some of the Labour twitterati I follow were looking at this earlier)

The LibDem target list only identifies 5 Tory / LibDem marginals with a less than 5% swing requirement.

I guess there is an outside possibility of a Con / LibDem outcome like 2010 which would block Brexit and return Osbornomics - I hope not.

That certainly appears to be Jo's pitch Sad

ListeningQuietly · 27/07/2019 16:13

placemats
The "Lib Dems" did not lose to Labour in 2017
Nick Clegg lost his seat in a personal rebuke to him.
But O'Mara has been sch a disaster it will probably go back to Libdem, as it had been since 1997

placemats · 27/07/2019 16:15

Nick Clegg lost in 2017 to Jared O'Mara (Labour).

Hope that helps in getting this into perspective. So basically, all the Lib Dem's are doing now is riding on the crest of a ripple on a calm sea due to the fact they are pro European. That's not going to work.

prettybird · 27/07/2019 16:16

Peregina - I'm not a student of Irish history, but iirc, in addition to the resistance in Ireland itself (and loss of life ShockSad), Parnell also started causing problems within WM itself, by being as obstructive as possible, legitimately using its own procedures against it. I can see the SNP doing the same in future - especially if we continue with hung parliaments. Even with EVEL, it could be an ever present irritant.

And while Spain has said it wouldn't block EU membership of an independent Scotland provided it does it "constitutionally" (hence the need for the Section 30 notice) because of Catalonia (which doesn't have a constitutional right Shock), who knows what its attitude might be if BJ fucks around with Gibraltar Shock, which seems to have been forgotten about in all this No Deal willy waving Confused

And there is also (apparently) an argument that under the Treaty of Union (another of those pesky international treaties, albeit a very old one Wink) the people of Scotland remain sovereign. So that would be an "out" for the Spanish Government, if there was clear resistance to WM rule Wink

woodpigeons · 27/07/2019 16:18

It was lovely tobee and dgs13 proved his worth when we came to long flights of locks.
I’d really like to live on a canal boat and travel around the country.

QueenOfThorns · 27/07/2019 16:26

Please excuse my ignorance, but I’m assuming that a no deal exit would necessitate a hard border being established in Ireland, is that correct? How would they sort that out overnight?

NoCryingInEngineering · 27/07/2019 16:27

My parents had a massive fight with the school (which they won) to get them to let me do physics and chemistry instead of general science at Standard Grade as my english & overall grades weren't good enough. 2 years and a broken collar bone resulting in a scribe for prelims and a dyslexia diagnosis later they lost the fight for me to be allowed to drop Higher English, which I'm still cross about because I'd have passed Geography if I'd had more time to spend on it and less on English which I was always going to fail anyway

ListeningQuietly · 27/07/2019 16:27

Your guess is as good as anybody's ....
Army Checkpoints?
THat would go down well Sad

placemats · 27/07/2019 16:28

Johnson & Co wouldn't be able to sort that out overnight unless the 20,000 extra police were put on the Irish and Northern Irish border. Remember this border lies between two countries and necessitates cooperation from both sides.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 27/07/2019 16:28

Sons of our best holidays before DCs were canal boating!

placemats · 27/07/2019 16:32

Sorry the 20,000 extra police would not be allowed into the Irish border.

To put this into perspective:

Northern Irish border is 499 km.

Scottish border is 154 km
Welsh border is 260 km.