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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

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Oakenbeach · 26/07/2019 23:37

If you assume that Tory party members are simply a subset of Tory voters. But they're not.
We don't have much data, but the two council elections where BXP stood suggest that in some places the LDs are a far bigger threat to the Tories than BXP. If BXP is only polling around 17-18% they're just UKIP Mark 2.

And they’ll be getting far more than 17-18% if BJ marginalises the ERG and their sympathisers by seeking to bring back the WA with cosmetic changes. Many of those voters would have voted Tory in 2017, and their defection to the BP in such circumstances would be more than enough (even if it remained at 17-18%) to ensure the Tories lose power at a GE very, very badly....

As you rightly say they’d be losing votes in the other direction too to the LibDems who I predict will do extremely well if there’s a pre-Brexit GE.

Songsofexperience · 26/07/2019 23:51

So, the "million to one chance of no deal" a few days ago was another lie. Who'd have thunk?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/brexit-deadlock-as-no-10-insists-eu-must-scrap-backstop-before-talks

UK on course for no deal brexit. The Guardian spells it out tonight.

I just hope the EU27 remember 99.75% of the population haven't voted for this.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/07/2019 00:02

Over ⅓ of voters do support No Deal
and they are nearly all on the right or far right
That's the problem
and why BJ is pushing No Deal

yolofish · 27/07/2019 00:06

I was at a wedding today, and talked to a lot of Irish people, all from all over Ireland rather than NI. Some closer to the border than others.

They were all clear that tensions were rising, particularly close to the border.

Also, what I thought was an interesting point: they are VERY keen to give out Irish passports to those with even tenuous connections. Their aim is to build connections with the rest of the world, to encourage people into the country (rather than keep them out, like some places I could mention).

It is now taking up to 6 months to get an Irish passport and apparently can cost 1000€.

I am now going to investigate: DM was born in Ireland therefore I am entitled. And if I get one and then the DDs can, then I'm going to go for it so that they have the opportunity to work in the EU if they want to.

Emilyontmoor · 27/07/2019 00:11

I have not been diagnosed with a Specific Learning Difficulty (The catch all for dyslexia dyspraxia dyscalculia etc recognising that neuro difference includes all sorts of profiles) but brother, niece, nephew and DDs have (and my recent sojourn with DD on an orthopaedic ward is undoubtedly related). When doing reasoning and aptitude tests for selection and promotion at work I scored in the bottom 5% of the population for numerical ability (basically arithmetic) but top 1% for verbal and non verbal reasoning and analysis of trends. I still have all sorts of coping strategies for times tables, I can go to an answer I know (I eat and eat and was sick on the floor ) and work from there, but I do killer sudoku for pleasure. I can not spell. When I was going though the nightmare of DDs 11+ I jumped colleagues, bankers, accountants, finance directors with 7x6 and hardly any could answer. My only brush with economics was on my MBA course when we were given a microeconomics exercise in predicting demand. They assumed that you would just estimate from the numbers but I had no clue (my degree was in history) so I spent an entire night building on my fantastic Maths teachers imparting of the logic of trigonometry to teach myself A level equation of the curve and I got 99% way ahead of all the economists who had more sense! One of my favourite roles was developing a huge model which segmented my company’s (one of the biggest in the country) markets and attached numbers to it and then could be used to inform strategic and organisational options. Though I could do a 2 page summary. The point is brains work differently.

My immediate thought reading Cummings blog was that the Civil Service has always understood “performance teams”, the original work on this was ironically done by NASA (so yes it was not blind faith got them to the moon) (not a particularly good link but it is late and there are lots more - it is a widely understood tool www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newLDR_83.htm ). Of course it needs updating for the IT age but in management there is always someone who wants to come along and rebrand the bleeding obvious especially if they have an axe to grind. My experience of senior civil servants in the DTI was that they were very sharp and got to the 2 page whole picture / summary of the many pages very quickly and knew how to play thick Cabinet Ministers very well (Peter Lilley -Maggie appointed thickos too). Maggie was a different but at least whilst she was driven by free market ideology she had a plan.

Emilyontmoor · 27/07/2019 00:18

By the way remember the Irish diaspora are strong in the areas in the north where dissatisfaction drove the leave vote over the line. The NI situation won’t sway true blue Tories in the South East but I have heard more than one previously fervent leaver in the north with significant Irish connections saying any threat to that hard won peace is not worth it.

tobee · 27/07/2019 00:23

Re Johnson saying he's definitely ruled out an election before October 31st, he wouldn't say otherwise would he, at the moment? That would be saying he's willing to risk someone else getting in power to not deliver Brexit.

So we shall see what we will see. As people say, what he does rather than says. It's only been 3 days since he's been pm.

SwedishEdith · 27/07/2019 00:23

It is now taking up to 6 months to get an Irish passport and apparently can cost 1000€.

Depends. It takes a lot longer than that if going via grandparents but doesn't cost that. Takes about 12 months, atm, to go on the Foreign Births Register and costs about £260 and then another few months for a passport (approx £80?). That's if you're entitled, not if you're Andrew Brigden.

prettybird · 27/07/2019 00:25

Queenofthorns - without knowing your budget and what you're looking for: don't discount conversions as they can offer really good value Smile. Our house is a Victorian stone built villa with lovely high ceilings and plaster cornicing and frieze on a lovely wide, leafy, quiet street (but we have a garage full of junk and off road parking anyway) but still close to the city centre and good transport links. Dh calls it a horizontal semi - we have the upper half - the first floor and attic floor (3 bedrooms and study, 2 reception rooms and large kitchen), half of a large back garden and a shared front garden. He'd had a look at its value recently and thinks it's about £400k, maybe £450k at the moment (we bought it 20 years ago exactly for nowhere near that Shock)

yolofish · 27/07/2019 00:39

thanks swedishedith I am going to look into it. I am def entitled (and have all the paperwork etc) but would probably only bother if I can pass the entitlement on to my DDs.

SwedishEdith · 27/07/2019 00:41

I remember David Baddiel did a great programme on the dangers of telling your children they're "clever" - how damaging it is, sets them up for failure, etc. Tell them you're pleased at how well they're tried instead etc. A few of the families on that Dara O'Briain quiz show seem to be like that. But Cummings (and Johnson) is what happens when someone is repeatedly told they're "a great brain" - they start to believe it.

QuckTheDuck · 27/07/2019 01:51

Je ne parle ni le français ni l'allemand ... mais j'apprécie d'essayer de régler le problème puis de consulter un traducteur.

Now off to read the rest of the thread!

QuckTheDuck · 27/07/2019 02:08

Can someone find the posters that said I was being ridiculous about scrapping metric, and kick their arses, please ...

I pointed out the other day that the radio said the weather in Fahrenheit as if it was a normal thing to do!

FoldyRoll · 27/07/2019 03:19

Yolo you're already an Irish citizen. Your DDs can claim citizenship but will need to be registered as foreign births before being able to get a passport. If they're young, great; once registered they can pass citizenship on to any future kids they may have. Unfortunately, if they already have kids, they can't; entitlement to citizenship stops with the grandchildren of the last person born on Irish soil.

probstimeforanewname · 27/07/2019 07:40

the Irish diaspora are strong in the areas in the north where dissatisfaction drove the leave vote over the line

? Liverpool and Manchester voted to remain. And Glasgow certainly did too!

what I thought was an interesting point: they are VERY keen to give out Irish passports to those with even tenuous connections

I have 3 Irish great-grandparents here if they'd like to relax their criteria - please!

Oakenbeach · 27/07/2019 07:50

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.indy100.com/article/boris-johnson-jo-brexit-cabinet-no-deal-second-referendum-9020431%3famp

The Johnsons..... What a self-serving, unscrupulous and duplicitous family!

Iambuffy · 27/07/2019 07:59

Yolo:
1st step: get your dc added to the register of foriegn births.
Once done, apply for passports.
It can take a while.
The irish embassy website is very useful.

Emilyontmoor · 27/07/2019 08:09

probstime Yes but the diaspora stretches into all the northern cities and towns even, or maybe especially, the true blue more rural areas that people of Irish heritage retired to.

Peregrina · 27/07/2019 08:11

Re Johnson saying he's definitely ruled out an election before October 31st, he wouldn't say otherwise would he, at the moment?

If he loses a Confidence vote, which with Corbyn's about calling one, seems unlikely, it won't entirely be in his gift. Except to delay the election until after October, which is probably what he means. It's hard to say, if it was Jacob Rees-Mogg saying that he chooses his words carefully, with Boris Johnson, he opens his mouth and blabs.

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 27/07/2019 08:12

With BJ declaring no election before 31st Oct - does this means it’s more likely other MPs will start to move towards a VONC?

I’m so scared BJ is just going to run down the clock to no deal.

Peregrina · 27/07/2019 08:17

DS applied to put his own DS on the register of Foreign births about six months ago and is still waiting I think.

NoCryingInEngineering · 27/07/2019 08:18

I wonder what the total cost will be once the British Standard absolutists really get going and we are required to go back to Witworth thread sizes etc? On the plus side various houses will find "Grandad's toolbox" suddenly becoming useful again.

While I operate quite happily in a mixture of units and work in a branch of engineering where some things like pipe schedules are still routinely quoted in inches, loosing things like the litre/kilo equivalence would be stupid. But as JRM and co clearly think that anyone who doesn't live purely in a suit IS stupid. And so they make idiotic statements because they don't understand how complicated the things that they consider beneath them are.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/07/2019 08:21

"I’m so scared BJ is just going to run down the clock to no deal."

V difficult to stop him now.

It would take not only a VoNC, but also the other parties would have to vote Confidence in another person as PM
Otherwise, it would be a GE with BJ chosing the date

Tory moderates who oppose No Deal had one real chance to stop it:
by letting Labour know they would support a VoNC BEFORE the recess

However, once again they put country before party, so Labour saw no point in even calling for a VoNC

Myriade · 27/07/2019 08:38

I suspect we will have No Deal because that’s what works best for BJ.

This man is a buffoon yes. But I also think he is very good strategist.
He handled the campaign to Leave very well. He stayed very quiet during the whole TM thing, binding his time. I have no doubt that he has a plan in mind to stay in power for as long as possible. And I do not doubt he can also use techniques that are ..... unsavoury.

And imo that will include bullying MPs to support No Deal and ‘bring them back in line’. Trump like techniques of saying one thing the getting back on it (and people will only remember the first bit if course!). Saying scandalous things and dismissing them as a joke (the same way that mysogynists ‘joke’ about women). A generally looking like a clown because you know a clown is quite loveable.

I wish that the press would start calling the current government for what it is. And extreme right government. The same type they have been sneering at before saying they’re so much better than that. Except that the U.K. isn’t much better than Poland, Austria, Bulgaria, Italy etc....

Peregrina · 27/07/2019 08:41

But as JRM and co clearly think that anyone who doesn't live purely in a suit IS stupid. And so they make idiotic statements because they don't understand how complicated the things that they consider beneath them are.

And in one fell swoop, shows a lack of a scientific background.

I think we have had debates on various threads about STEM subjects being pushed in schools. While I don't agree that it should be to the detriment of the arts subjects, I do think it's a good thing. I went to a girls grammar, back in the early 1960s - science was Biology. Then they added in Physics with Chemistry as one O level. So anyone who had ambitions to be a Doctor could forget it because the amount of chemistry wasn't sufficient to be a good preparation for a high A level grade. Some people made it into scientific careers - one at least by being offered a course with a foundation year at University.

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