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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

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Mistigri · 26/07/2019 10:47

I usually don't let on that I'm English in France. If challenged I usually say I'm an immigrant and they automatically assume that I'm EU in U.K. (cos U.K. in EU are expats don't you know).

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 11:01

Nous pouvons ecrire en Francais ?

prettybird · 26/07/2019 11:04

D'accord Grin

Peut-être les Bots ne pourrant pas comprendre Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 11:13

We seem to be in zugzwang

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 11:15

We seem to be in zugzwang

There's always Eurish Grin. Totally bot-impregnable. (Even the Klingons couldn't understand it ...)

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 11:19

Contrary to the claims that Brexit is fighting the elite:

"Johnson represents what the establishment looks like without its clothes on."

HoneysuckIejasmine · 26/07/2019 11:25

Misti I'm staggered by those Glos results. My MP is the unenviable Lawrence Robertson and I hope a LD surge in his neighbouring constituency is at least making him stop being such a wanker think.

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 11:27

BJ seems to think humour excuses anything.

A not funny example - would English people laugh at a poem published in a prominent national magatine in which English people were called "verminous and hould be exterminated" ?

Fact-check: Did Boris Johnson call Scottish people a 'verminous race'?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17711776.fact-check-did-boris-johnson-call-scottish-people-a-verminous-race/

The quotes come from a "satirical" poem by James Michie, titled "Friendly Fire".
It was published in The Spectator magazine in 2004 – and Johnson was editor of the publication at the time.
< he should have refused to publish the poem >
....
"The Scotch – what a verminous race!
Canny, pushy, chippy, they’re all over the place, Battening off us with false bonhomie, Polluting our stock, undermining our economy.
...
I would go further. The nation
Deserves not merely isolation
But comprehensive extermination.
We must not flinch from a solution."

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 11:28

Honeysuckle I think they are encouraging (though the sample size is small of course due to small wards and low turnout).

I genuinely think that the BXP peak is past. Blowjob will probably bring some of those voters back to the tories, although others will go out the other end in the direction of the LDs.

The danger here IMHO is that the LDs could end up being shifted rightwards, as has happened to LREM in France which at the start was very much a "New Labour" type project but which has hoovered up the centre right as the Republican Party collapsed.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 11:29

But comprehensive extermination.
We must not flinch from a solution."

Jesus fucking Christ.

HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 11:29

So Johnson is on an autumn election footing judging by the Tory ads already flooding Facebook, and the hiring of the Vote Leave campaign team. (Some of the Phil Syrpis thread rings true. I sometimes wonder if Johnson always wanted to be PM and Brexit was just his method of getting there.)

Anyway, to counter this forward planning by the BJ team, I hope the Remain-supporting parties are planning to work together to avoid fragmentation of the vote. (TIGs said that in the run-up to the EU elections, they had no time to coalesce, which resulted in Change UK taking votes uselessly off other parties, etc.) We're in an emergency situation and this strategy may not ever need to be repeated.

Ideally LD, SNP, Plaid, Change, Greens and Independents would be talking over the summer to endorse a joint working plan, something like this:

  1. Ignore Tory safe seats.
  2. Ignore Labour safe seats.
  3. In Scotland, generally stand down to allow an SNP candidate to command the Remain vote in each constituency. (Maybe not East Dunbartonshire!)
  4. in Wales, generally stand down for Plaid candidates. (Maybe not Brecon!)
  5. In NI, generally stand down for NI Remain-supporting candidates .... Focus on taking the 3 DUP seats with small majorities.
  6. In places with a LD chance, (like Richmond, Sheffield Hallam and many others) stand down for the Lib Dem candidate.
  7. In places with a Green chance, (like Norwich and Bristol) make way for the Green candidate.
  8. Stand down to support well-known and locally-liked Remain candidates who have left the Tories, or who are being de-selected and might go independent. (Wollaston, Soubry, Lee, Grieve etc.)
  9. Put up a good local candidate in Vauxhall to replace Hoey.
10. Work hard on places with Tories like Rudd and IDS who have slim majorities. 11. You call it a 'National Unity government' vote or something. You say to Remainers, 'In this constituency, your Unity candidate is, e.g, the Green .....'. 12. Voters would then generally have a main choice of Tory, BXP, or Unity. 13. Afterwards, the Unity caucus could represent the collective voice of common sense in Parliament. I might suggest Caroline Lucas as a spokesperson.

I'm no psephologist or expert, and I'm sure someone on here will point out local exceptions and flaws in this idea, but we need desperate measures for desperate times.

We need to get serious. These tactical voting websites don''t seem to work well, especially if you get two which are advising opposite things! It needs to come from the top. The leaders need to recognise the need to collaborate and the thirst for change, and put aside their party egos.

Any ideas?

www.bestforbritain.org/worktogether

twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 11:32

Peut-être les Bots ne pourrant pas comprendre

On est combien à savoir lire/écrire en français? Ce n'est pas une mauvaise solution.

On parlera alors de l'élite.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 11:32

Some posters demanded I stop because of this

Have they really? Although I suppose it could smack of Schadenfreude - I am sitting pretty in [state EU country of residence] and ha ha look at you all stuck in the UK (England) going to hell and unable to do anything about it.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 11:34

I'm no psephologist or expert, and I'm sure someone on here will point out local exceptions and flaws in this idea, but we need desperate measures for desperate times.

There are flaws in what you've written by the underlying reasoning is sound. I'd even offer my time to help. There was not enough coordination in the various remain efforts at the European elections, which is largely the fault of Labour-affiliated folks. I'm still fundamentally a (new) labour supporter but people like Adonis and even Lammy and Phillips need to see which way the wind has shifted.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 11:35

I can't write in French but I can understand it (and German and Italian and Spanish and, to a point, Dutch). I think the bots probably can, too.

Ich koennte in deutsch schreiben, finde es aber schwierig, weil ich eine britische Tastatur habe...especially with a laptop so I don't even have the ASCII codes.

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 11:36

BCF I had someone try to tell me that my dad loosing his land to developers would be "what Brexit is all about" i.e socking it to 'the elite'. I can't see it myself; Wimpy homes gives my dad say £1m, they make £5m and no one can afford the cheap homes that will fall apart after 10 years, which are on greenbelt (I know Leavers aren't fond of the environment but it's rather counter intuitive) and at least 4 families will be left with no livelihoods or home who were rather integral to the village for generations (my great grandparents leased the land to theirs). I'm also sure the whole village will be in uproar about the extra traffic/increase of kids needing a new school to be built and services.

Je veux pratiquer mon Français! J'ai reserve cinq jours en France pour une petite vancance a la fin d'aout.

I've not figured out accents on my keyboard though, apologies!

HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 11:37

Yes Misti, I've ignored Labour in that. I don't think you can rely on them for policy, and JC doesn't want to work with others.

prettybird · 26/07/2019 11:37

Going by 2015, there are no "safe" Labour seats in Scotland Shock. Even the 3 remaining "non" SNP seats (1 each for Labour, Conservative and LibDems) were marginals Shock

OK, there were special circumstances in 2015 but...... Hmm

HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 11:40

Agreed, Pretty, and I believe Scotland and NI deserve special attention and effort because they voted to Remain.

Alsohuman · 26/07/2019 11:41

I think ignoring “safe” seats would be a huge mistake. I live in the second safest Tory constituency in the country and the LibDem vote is surging here. Stand down other Remain candidates and, although it wouldn’t be a Libdem win, a very clear message would be sent by the decrease in my MP’s majority.

HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 11:45

I see what you're saying, Alsohuman, I just thought there might not be enough central party 'campaigning might' to focus heavily on everywhere. But yes, I suppose it doesn't take a lot of effort to not stand.

Peregrina · 26/07/2019 11:47

I sometimes wonder if Johnson always wanted to be PM and Brexit was just his method of getting there.)

Got it in one!

My worry with the LDs is that a Tory influx could pull them too far right. OTOH - I don't really have problems with the old-fashioned moderate Tories that I know. They are the sort of people who do their bit for the Community and do believe in Society. I have spent some of my time telling at elections with them and have come away genuinely thinking that we have more in common that divides us. This doesn't apply to the right wing ERG types, or the Priti Patels, nor of course does it apply to the Faragists.

HesterThrale · 26/07/2019 11:48

BCF, a relative of mine was in Scotland this week, and was shocked by the amount of animosity the Scots openly feel towards Johnson. Not surprising really, though.

pointythings · 26/07/2019 12:03

Wat mij betreft mag het best in het Frans. Duits of Nederlands is ook prima.

prettybird · 26/07/2019 12:07

As a proud Scot, I have no compunction in saying BloJob is a fucking arse Grin

....I've heard more colourful descriptions Wink

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