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Brexit

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing

966 replies

RedToothBrush · 25/07/2019 16:22

Boris Johnson has set out his strategy.

He is challenging remain Tories to put their money where their mouth is, or to shut up.

His majority, soon to be just 1, is fragile but he intends to tough it out.

His Cabinet, is to all intents and purposes an ERG take over of the Tory Party, not unlike the Momentum take over of the Labour Party. And Johnson is looking to purge the party of its liberal wing, whilst pretending that he is liberal to make it acceptable to long term loyal Tories who might still waiver and merely vote for the rosette or like the veneer of respectability.

It has been made clear to Tory MPs that they will have to sign up to a No Deal Strategy should a snap election be called - or face the prospect of deselection. Disloyality will not be tolerated as Hunt's Cabinet backers all found out when they were sacked rather than be allowed to resign as Grayling was.

Instead Johnson reaped his revenge bringing back quitters and disgraced MPs as a deliberate 'fuck you' to moderates and remainers.

His message is clear and made all the clearer by the appointment of Dominic Cummings.

Today the Treasurery opened the piggie bank and told all departments to prepare for no deal. That is what is going to happen.

Parliament can not stop no deal. Johnson will drive it through regardless, even if its technically illegal. The default of no deal makes it an impossible juggernaught to stop without triggering a GE before the 31st October.

Technically speaking there are just 3 parliamentary days left this can be done.

And a GE is no guarentee of stopping no deal anyway. Cummings coming on board spells it out. Its a campaign strategy to reinvigourate the Leave Campaign and make all the promises that were made before. Of course there is no way of implimenting any of these before 31st October, so they just sound nice and people will believe them because they want to believe them. They want to trust and have hope for the future.

Yet with no trade deals and third party status, and crippling gridlock at ports and extra red tape for exporters and importers to deal with, it is inevitable that the economy will take a big hit. And Johnson's promises are expensive. His £39 billion he wants to withhold, is peanuts in the scheme of things and given what he is proposing.

The plan might sound nice, but it doesn't actually add up.

If we want a deal we will STILL have to sign up to conditions that Brussels sets out EVEN IF we no deal.

Meanwhile the US is ready and waiting to fleece us, because we aren't prepared to admit this and are too proud to see that this is a better option than have corporate American feast on the bones of the British economy.

Human Rights and Workers Rights are very much in the cross hairs with this. Health and Safety standards that have been set by London and then imposed on the EU will be burnt.

All the while the EU will be blamed for our own folly.

The worst thing is, people will actually buy it too.

Things are going to get a hell of a lot worse in this country, not because we lack optimism and hope, but because our egos are too big and we have been too idealist rather than recognising very real obstacles and finding ways to overcome than rather than just trying to ignore them. We will find out all those Paragraph Cs in good time the hard way because of the lack of attention to detail.

PFI and outsourcing will look like minor hiccups when the shit hits the fan.

I do hope that the puritians of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats and the Remain Referendum Campaign are happy. This is also their mess. They have spent 3 years naval gazing and still don't understand nor know how to respond. This is where a General Election becomes a very real danger because they are clueless as to how to combat a reunited Leave campaign.

Be careful what you wish for going forward.

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Mistigri · 26/07/2019 09:14

Two Gloucester council election wins for the LDs last night (results below). Both had a Brexit party candidate.

In Barnwood, the LDs appear to have taken both Tory and Labour votes; the BXP basically took votes off UKIP.

In Podsmead, it looks like both LD and BXP took votes from Tory and Labour, but there was no LD or UKIP candidate previously to compare with, so the real underlying movement may not be very different to Barnwood (ie BXP mainly taking "far right" rather than "mainstream pro-Brexit" votes)

Barnwood (Gloucester) result:

LDEM: 46.5% (+15.1)
CON: 34.1% (-6.0)
BREX: 10.5% (+10.5)
LAB: 4.4% (-6.9)
GRN: 4.1% (-1.3)
UKIP: 0.4% (-11.2)

Podsmead (Gloucester) result:

LDEM: 30.0% (+30.0)
CON: 29.6% (-18.5)
LAB: 18.0% (-33.9)
BREX: 16.4% (+16.4)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6)

QueenOfThorns · 26/07/2019 09:16

Thanks @Emilyontmoor! I have an automatic watering system set up in the greenhouse - I will change the frequency a bit.

@bellinisurge I have a good recipe for apple chutney somewhere that I remember has more tomatoes that apples in it! I will have to dig it out.

Peregrina · 26/07/2019 09:22

A No Deal Brexit may indeed destroy the Tory party,

But so might Alexander de Pfeffel's deal, which will be Theresa May's deal dressed up. Having said that, I think rumours of the Tory party's demise are premature; they have a way of surviving.

Alsohuman · 26/07/2019 09:26

They may have survived thus far but they’ve never been hell bent on self destruction before.

probstimeforanewname · 26/07/2019 09:28

rumours of the Tory party's demise are premature; they have a way of surviving

More's the pity.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 09:37

They only have to fail once. The argument that because something has never failed before it won't fail now is a very poor one.

The80sweregreat · 26/07/2019 09:38

Al will get ( Theresa's) WA through with a few tweaks and take all the glory by October.
I can see that happening actually.

Alsohuman · 26/07/2019 09:41

Seriously?

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 09:45

Al will get ( Theresa's) WA through with a few tweaks and take all the glory by October.

It's not impossible. Hard to put a likelihood on it.

He's put all the main no-dealers in positions where they will be directly exposed (personally and politically) to the negative impact of no-deal.

OTOH what mitigates against this argument is that Blow Job is busy making sure that the EU hardens its position.

Alsohuman · 26/07/2019 09:47

@Mistigri, your last sentence made me laugh.

wherearemychickens · 26/07/2019 09:47

I can't see that happening - he had a choice 'lipstick on a pig' to dress up the deal, or hard-line 'remove the backstop' and we'll deal. He went with the latter yesterday, so the deal is even more dead now surely? The EU response was a very swift no yesterday evening.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 09:51

Alsohuman lots of willy waving going on, it has to be said.

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 09:56

@Mistigri yes yesterday I saw a clip of Mogg saying that "NOW he has collective responsibility", he won't consider proroguing Parliament after all... It's an interesting thought that BoJo might be doing what TM did to him by making him take some responsibility for the ensuing chaos. Sadly 98 days won't be long enough for them to do a public U-turn to revoke, although I guess never say never. which sounds a lot more hopeful than I feel typing that!

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 09:57

Surprised we're all here after yesterdays alleged reporting spree Grin

FWIW, it has always amused me when posters feel the need to state in a thread they have "reported" when (a) it's a private matter (much like a vote) and (b) since MNHQ don't tell posters who complained about their post when they remove it (not that I would know Grin) it's pure grandstanding anyway.

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 10:05

I'm only here because I'm busy winding up a leaver on another thread about the definition of recession. Slow work day ;) and I've done my expenses Halo

DGRossetti · 26/07/2019 10:11

I'm only here because I was never reported Grin

Must try harder.

I caught a comment yesterday which made me smile along the lines of the sudden influx of born-again-Brexiteers had actually made me appreciate Louise engaging so much Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 10:23

I disagree most of the time with Louise, but I always value her different POV

Totally different to the new influx who have nothing interesting to say, but just want us to shut up and stop posting

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 26/07/2019 10:27

Surprised we're all here after yesterdays alleged reporting spree

It always assumes me when I see a REPORTED!

Reminds me of a small child yelling at their friends that they are TELLING and running off to find mum and dad.

LonelyTiredandLow · 26/07/2019 10:29

Definitely quality not quantity with Leavers Grin.

Thanks for the tip re tomatoes and slowing on the watering. Have been out checking on them and my thorn-less raspberries which seem to give me a bowl every other day Grin. Right, off to do some childcare for my friends kids! If they don't get on as well as I hope I may not see you all until this afternoon...

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 10:31

The very aggressive BJ hardline now to the EU,
is what makes me expect a GE before Brexit rather than after

I wonder if BJ has had previous access to private Tory GE polls, or if he will only now get this info 🤔

It might change his tactics,
or force him to a deal with Farage to stand down his party for a GE

  • the "advantage" of a one man band is that Farage can decide this alone.

When in a 4-way contest that includes the Faragists, the Tory seat predictions are dire for BJ's goal of 5 years in power:
Even with a large % lead over Labour, they lose a lot of seats, both to LDems and Faragists
e.g.

Britain Elects@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 25% (-)
LDEM: 23% (+3)
LAB: 19% (-2)
BREX: 17% (-2)
GRN: 9% (+1)

via @YouGov, 23 - 24 Jul, Chgs. w/ 17 Jul

Predicted Seats (current seats)

Conservatives 68 short of majority

CON: 258 (318)
LDEM: 96 (12)
LAB: 188 (262)
BREX: 46 (0)
GRN: 1 (1)
SNP: 40 (35)

Westminstenders: On An Election Footing
ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 26/07/2019 10:36

CON: 258 (318)
LDEM: 96 (12)
LAB: 188 (262)
BREX: 46 (0)
GRN: 1 (1)
SNP: 40 (35)

Very interesting bigchoc

So Lib Dem’s + Labour + SNP + GREEN would give a majority. Any chance of them joining forces to stop Brexit?

Mistigri · 26/07/2019 10:37

It always assumes me when I see a REPORTED!

I assume we are talking about the person who is now reporting people on another thread for bringing facts to the argument.

Socksontheradiator · 26/07/2019 10:41

We can't have facts hampering their arguments now, can we?

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 10:43

We must be very cautious with a seat prediction based on a snapshot in time opinion poll

However, given that caution:

Greens will have too few seats to be relevant, so it would be LAB+LDem+SNP

A coalition is v unlikely, but a minority LAB govt with confidence & supply is feasible,
at least for long enough to get an extension and then choose an available option that stops No Deal, probably PV

The EU would certainly extend for a new govt that wasn't batshit Brexiters and that had campaigned to stop No Deal

BigChocFrenzy · 26/07/2019 10:45

I'm not sure what you and I could be reported for, Misti
..... other than posting from E27 countries

Some posters demanded I stop because of this 🤯 < batshit emoticon >
However, posting from furrin is definitely not against MN rules !

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