The NI border issue can never be resolved can it?

[Bearbehind]

We would have left by now if is wasn’t for the border issue in NI and I genuinely can’t see a positive outcome.

If, 20 years after the GFA, peace is still so fragile a border is incompressible and any other option basically breaks up the union - how can it ever end well?

They would be liable for rUK's GDP budget contribution. Minus the 55 million in England, that would be vastly reduced

How on earth do you reach that conclusion? England wouldn't be relevant to any membership of the EU for an independent Scotland. I find it funny that you think it would be.

How often do politicians honour their word?

More often when politicians from the country in question haven't actually spent the last 3 years being xenophobic and slagging everything about them off.

Have the EU leaders said that as well?

Aw bless, you don't understand do you? That's ok, you don't have to. It's nothing to do with you.

Ireland is already a member state. If reunification happened, Ireland is already a member state so wouldn't have to apply to join since it's already a member.

More Scots voted to remain in UK than voted to remain in EU

5 years ago.

what is it with people that fixate on something being something in the past ? Times change.

Contrary to popular Brexiter opinion, the UK is not one of the biggest contributors on a per capita

Total amount is what counts. EU is not bothered what the contribution per head works out at.

Belgium is a net taker

Belgium (and Luxembourg) are only superficially net contributors because the high amount that is "allocated" against them in the calculations because of the EU administration carried out there. Take that out and they're net contributors.

I was wrong - the UK is actually 5th in per capita contributions in the most recent figures. And the per capita contribution is relevant, because once the UK (and its 60+ million people are out), the EU no longer needs to help out all those areas that the UK Government ignores. Yes, there's an initial pain in spreading the fixed costs over a smaller base, but the variable costs decrease.

As it happens, the UK couldn't join the € as it doesn't meet the financial criteria for the Eurozone - although it might have to commit to do so if once it does

And yes, more Scots voted to stay in the UK 5 years ago than voted to leave. At least some of them did so on the basis that they wanted to stay in the EU as they believed the Project Fear pronouncements that Scotland would be kicked out I personally know 2 who are now campaigning actively for Independence - both former very disillusioned Labour activists (one a very high profile one).

As DGR says, things change.

Things do change, but I think the UK is changing for the worse. The old saying safety in numbers comes to mind.

Can’t see any of the UK members being stronger by themselves if the UK fragments. However, Johnson has stated UK will become the greatest country in the World!

To use a good Scottish put down.....

Aye right

However, Johnson has stated UK will become the greatest country in the World!

The UK isn't a country. It's a union of countries. I also disagree that we're better together. Since the promises made a week before Indy ref 2014 haven't materialised, and the comments about Scotland from senior politicians says it all.

Yet they were desperate to keep us 5 years ago. Which tells me they need us more than we need them.

The mood is shifting here. The voters who voted no in 2014, in good faith, believing the lie that it was "the only guaranteed way to remain in the EU", are pissed off.

The margin was negligible last time, I wonder what those voters switching to yes would mean for a result?

Why else would Westminster be running scared of a referendum they have no right or indeed way of stopping?

The Scottish government on the other hand, have a mandate for Indy 2, based on a caveat within the original legislation.

In the event of "significant and material changes" they can call Indy 2.

I'd say brexit covers that, no?

Since the promises made a week before Indy ref 2014 haven't materialised

That was Cameron being a remain supporter. He never dream that UK would vote Leave EU.

I also disagree that we're better together

Get the feeling that is based on Cameron’s lie about EU membership as opposed to economic benefits? 60% of Scotland exports is to other parts of UK.

Yet they were desperate to keep us 5 years ago. Which tells me they need us more than we need them

Leave supporters often say same about EU in that EU would not object to UK leaving if they had nothing to lose. Whereas remain supporters think it is a poor argument.

I agree that the vote by UK to leave EU satisfies the caveat of material change and Scotland are entitled to another referendum.

That was Cameron being a remain supporter. He never dream that UK would vote Leave EU

So what?

Get the feeling that is based on Cameron’s lie about EU membership as opposed to economic benefits? 60% of Scotland exports is to other parts of UK.

Aye? 50% of the revenue from export tax in the UK comes from us.

Leave supporters often say same about EU in that EU would not object to UK leaving if they had nothing to lose. Whereas remain supporters think it is a poor argument.

Because the circumstances are entirely different. For a start the EU didn't make false promises to entice us to stay, they don't need us more than we need them (contrary to the bullshit spouted by Leave) and actually, they weren't involved in the campaigns.

But hey, keep twisting soundbites to suit your agenda without actually considering facts.

It's not the same situation, and not thinking it would ever happen is not a reason to go back on promises that won you a vote.

But hey, we're all still waiting for the NHS bus to be real so.......

Ashamed to say I never knew anything about the GFA pre this Brexit shambles.

Aye? 50% of the revenue from export tax in the UK comes from us

Scotland exports £80 Billion. 60% of that is other parts of UK, £48 billion. That leaves £32 Billion exported outside UK.

UK exports £616 Billion. How can the export tax revenue on £32 Billion be 50% of the export tax revenue on £616 Billion? Does not sound possible.

is not a reason to go back on promises that won you a vote

That’s politicians around the World. How many times do promises made in manifestos ever appear? Brexit is a good example. Both labour and conservatives promised in 2017 general election to deliver the referendum result by 29 March 2019. Didn’t happen.

Your numbers exclude oil, renewable energy and fishing waters.

Funny that, so do Westminster's.

Stats only tell a limited story. They can be used to make a point without the whole picture.

I read that statistic and it was backed up.

Either way, it's a moot point because Scotland won't be lumped in with England for much longer.

I read that statistic and it was backed up

And the source is?

Hope you don’t say

Salmon or Sturgeon. Everything they say is fishy.

Hang on a minute til my sides split.

Oh wait......

The source is one I don't remember. I may well be wrong, and am happy to admit that.

You on the other hand, don't appear to have stated any sources?

Oh and .gov is not a source, it's propaganda.

Wonder how much sway he'll have without fishing waters and oil to bargain with eh?

And removing Trident.

prettybird
the per capita contribution is relevant, because once the UK (and its 60+ million people are out), the EU no longer needs to help out all those areas that the UK Government ignores.Yes, there's an initial pain in spreading the fixed costs over a smaller base, but the variable costs decrease.

I don't understand what you are saying here - the UK is a net contributor to the EU budget.

the EU no longer needs to help out all those areas that the UK Government ignores.

If you are referring to the regional development funds/social funds etc - this funding is 'recycled' money that we pay into the EU budget - listed under 'capital receipts' and deducted from our gross contributions - an extra £4.3bn for 2017 (if I remember correctly) - that's £4.3bn that we paid into the EU budget in addition to our net contribution of £8bn.

InTheHeatofLisbon
These polls don't look very good for indyref2;
whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/f-there-was-a-referendum-tomorrow-with-the-question-should-scotland-remain-in-t

Clavinova I trust polls about as much as I trust Tories.

For a start it might help if they polled members of all the political parties in Scotland. Which they haven't because DP and I have never been polled. Neither has my dad who is a member of a different political party.

So much like the media, question time audiences (why is an Orangeman from Musselburgh in several different audiences yet local people found it impossible to get a ticket when it came to our town?), the HoC and MN, it's easy to make a statement based on what you want to hear.

Let's have the referendum and see what the mood is then eh?

Downing Street has neither the power nor the mandate to prevent Indy 2. Bullshit posturing from the new PM as expected.

They asked less than 1500 people. Out of a country of 5.5 million. I'm going to guess they structured their target group pretty well too eh?

InTheHeatofLisbon

I think the SNP will have to show that there is a demand for indyref2 in Scotland - you can only do that with 'evidence' from polling.

I won't tell you about the caller from Dundee on LBC radio today, dismissing Ian Blackford as an 'embarrassment' (the caller voted 'remain' in the EU referendum by the way).

Clavinova uh huh, yet Downing Street confidently speak of knowing what the Scottish people want without such proof.

One caller thinks he's a dick. That's about as much of a revelation as someone from the Home Counties rather liking Rees-Mogg.

People have differing opinions. If nobody is scared of that, why not two more referenda?

Indy 2 and Brexit 2.

Only people shitting themselves are the folk who fucked it all up in the first place. And I couldn't give a shiny shite about them.

That's why I've said that Nicola - who is a savvy operator - may well just leave it to BJ to crash the UK economy It's not the way I'd prefer to leave the UK and to her credit, she has been trying to fight for the good of the whole sovereign state (in the absence of any real opposition from Lexiter Corbyn, even though a No deal Brexit would make her point about the madness of English & domination. I'd rather it took longer without the damage to the economies of both England and scotland (and to the GFA ) - but it is certainly one accelerated route, by which more of the population can see that WM doesn't give a fuck about Scotland except for its oil and whisky revenues

As for you not understanding the point about the UK leaving and the effect on the EU budget, if you can't understand the point I was making about variable costs, then I really can't be bothered explaining them to you.

Yes it can. A united Ireland. Simple.

Apologies, it seems like I have not read previous, but I have. Argument so diverged from topic I thought I'd redirect.

Not all Irish or Northern Irish people want unification. Ireland is NOT the problem here so please stop using it as the solution. The stupid notion of Brexit is the problem.

The DUP to my mind are pretending to enjoy supporting a No Deal Brexit. Well of course that bunch of money grabbing bigots would.

They know well that NI voted Remain. They know that it will be devastating for NI to leave with no deal, not to mind ROI but they don't care.

Talk about a perfect storm. If DUP were not in a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories, I think an agreement in principle would be made to have the border in the Irish Sea.

No hard border,
No backstop,
And so on.

I think it would have happened by now, and the WA would have been accepted on that basis.

I really fear for NI/ROI if there is any semblance of a border put in place now. But the Tories don't care. They are like a rabid bull, who will destroy anyone in their path to achieve their aim of being better than the EU and defeating them.

Anyway the Summer hiatus is upon us, so time for a bit of calm before the storm.

prettybird
I don't think you realised that EU Regional Development Funds etc. were our contributions sent back to us.

Outsomnia
I really fear for NI/ROI if there is any semblance of a border put in place now.

"9 July 2019 The Irish government has again said it will have no new checks at or near the border if there is a no-deal Brexit."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48929182