Just how exactly are we going to 'bring the country back together'?

[KennDodd]

Both candidates for PM have claimed they can do this. I heard a Tory party member interviewed on the radio saying that the best way to do this was a 'no deal/WTO/crash out because we'll all be in it together and it'll be like the war'.
I don't know how these wounds are going to heal.

Bellini,

Either engage with a point or ignore it. ‘Stupid no sense’ generally translates into English as ‘ummm, good point, but my religion prevents me from engaging’.

"Leaving ‘without a deal’ means a deferred deal, not no deal. We won’t be without a deal for long, both sides need one too much"

On November 1st, we will become a 3rd country to the EU, any significant deals will take years, in the meantime, what happens to UK businesses that cannot wait?

The EU is in a cleft stick and has been forced to be in this position for 3 years. It can't be ruthless in the off chance that the UK might revoke.
Once the UK is out, I would expect it to be 'open season' on the UK and wherever possible it will be plucked like a chicken, if not by the EU, but by many others. The situation will certainly not be static in the way you might pine for a trusty puppy to come back.

Jasjas,

Again you are kind of thinking that, were we to leave without a deal, we would be powerless to do anything. If we have any sense we will have a massive fiscal stimulus, massive incentives for business to locate here and, of course, a natural devaluation.

We would also trade with Trump and the Chinese on favourable terms, a bit of a ‘hold your nose’ situation, but we would hardly choose to economically commit suicide.

We can print GBP, Italy cannot print Euros. The ECB balance sheet of shitty assets is over EUR 1 trillion now and growing by 60 billion a month, something the Germans are painfully aware of. We may get hit harder but we also are not hobbled in defending ourselves as the eurozone is.

And, no, the German populace are just not that committed to bailing out Southern Europe.

@larrygrylls , I have tried on many occasions to engage with this point and yet the nonsense still comes. I compromised from Remain to support WA and still this No Deal shut keeps coming.
OK: how on earth is putting ourselves in a financially weaker (possibly desperate) position via No Deal going to mean we get a better deal. And how are you going to avoid fucking GFA if you No Deal?

What compromising have you done @larrygrylls ? If this is the shit you still believe?

America won't do a trade deal with the UK if the GFA is broken

"Leaving ‘without a deal’ means a deferred deal, not no deal. We won’t be without a deal for long, both sides need one too much."

If we are to leave with “no deal” (and interesting that bookies still have this as 2:1 against) then the aftermath that will really screw the Tories....

At the moment all the focus is on 31 October, not much on how we deal with the EU after.... the Brexit Ultras will still be there to vote against any “deal” that the new PM feels forced into to avoid meltdown.

Farage will see any compromise of any kind as a sell out, and will take a swathe of current Tory party members and supporters with him - he and his like will double down and blame the ensuing economic turmoil as being down to the Government’s lack of mettle in “forcing” the EU into kowtow.

One way or another, the Tories are finished by all this.... we’re just waiting for the dam to break.

We would also trade with Trump and the Chinese on favourable terms

Favourable terms? Good luck with that

{If we have any sense we will have a massive fiscal stimulus, massive incentives for business to locate here and, of course, a natural devaluation.}

All things the UK government could have done for the last 50 years or more, but hasn't.
It COULD have done this before entering the EEC, but didn't. It could have done this anytime while in the EU, but didn't.
Trading with the USA and China on 'preferable terms', nope, WTO rules on MFN stomp all over those ideas. Even getting something approaching the same deals as the UK currently gets through EU membership will be a tough call.

Typical No Dealer tactic to pretend you are the reasonable sensible person who listens when people call out bollocks for what it is @larrygrylls . Trump does it too.

@Larrygrylls

I'll assume you are being serious?

You are correct, we will not be powerless but as shown recently with the Chinese when Hammonds trip was cancelled or over the UK ambassador in USA, we will very quickly realise our power is somewhat limited.
Financial stimuli will lead to inflation as would printing sterling, a devalued pound? how low do you want it to go? Parity or 10p to the Dollar/Euro ?
The devaluation since 2016 hasn't done anything to improve exports, manufacturing makes up a small part of the UK plc.

We have a 2 trillion £ economy, what real difference do you think spending (borrowing) an extra 26 billion will lead too?
Its barely 2 months of NHS spending.

The UK scratching around for FTA's will not be favourable to the uk once we move onto powerful countries and large trading blocs ie the EU, even this is starting to dawn on Liam Fox.

Within the EU we have FTA with 80% of the worlds largest economies, just to get back to where we are now will take years.

In % terms the outcome of the 2016 referendum was close 52% leave and 48% remain. Very different to the referendum in 1975 where the vote was 67% remain and 33% leave.

However, in 1975 UK had only been a member for 2 years since 1973. So not a lot of history to review as to whether EU member ship was good or bad for the UK.

Also during the 1970s UK was battling with; oil crisis, strikes, huge inflation that lead to the winter of discontent in 1979. Possible that internal issues took peoples' eye off whether or not EU was good or bad.

1980s consisted of the Falklands war in 1982. Victory in 1983 GE by Thatcher. In 1984 and 1985 there was the NUM strike. Thatcher defeated the NUM which was previously considered unbeatable.

This paved the way for privatization of many National Companies, Telecom, Water, Utilities and even BP in 1987. Many ordinary persons in the street made quick overnight profits and it added to the feel good factor. Thatcher won again in 1987 because people felt good.

Money became more easy to borrow and increased home ownership. Property prices tripled during the 80s and by even more in London and the South East. Again it all added to the feel good factor. So again nobody looked at whether or not UK's membership of EU was good or bad because everyone felt great anyway.

Then come the 90s and the feel good factor begins to lose momentum. Recession in 1992 and interest rates touching 15% soon cooled things down. Conservatives won the 1992 election against the odds. However, Black Wednesday and UK's need to withdraw from the ERM cast doubt over conservatives ability to run the economy.

In 1997 labour win GE with a huge majority of seats even though the majority of the UK voted against labour. Remainder of the 90s was dominated by; death of Princess Diana in 1997, GFA passed in 1998, UK chooses not to use the Euro in 1999 and the build up to the millennium in 2000.

Early 2000s were dominated by; foot and mouth disease, 911 attack on USA in 2001 and 2003 invasion of Iraq.

So after 30 years of being in the EU from 1973 to 2003 was anybody taking any notice of whether UK's membership of EU was good or bad? Maybe not.

2004 ten more Countries join from Southern and Eastern Europe join the EU. Was this the beginning of problems and the increase of immigration? Take a look at the chart. Immigration increased massively under the Labour government long before 2004.

Then there was the famous note from Labour "there is no money left". However, the financial crisis was in 2007 and whoever was in power would have had to do some bailing out of the banks.

Before 2015 GE the PM, Cameron, promised to hold a referendum on EU membership if he won. He did and so a referendum was held in 2016 and the vote was to leave.

Impossible to say for certain, but based on the above the feel good factor of the 80s seems to disappear from early 90s. The point at which immigration began to rise rapidly.

Those two occurrences could be totally unrelated, but when things start to go wrong and people feel less happy it is always someone else's fault. Was immigration the easy scapegoat along the lines:

"everything was good up until immigration exploded"

The financial arguments about the economy, loss of jobs, weak currency, etc., presented by the remain supporters don't seem to have made much difference to those who support leave. So why are they standing their ground the remain supporters ask? How can they not see they will be worse off? Well maybe the vote to leave was superseded by considerations not connected with money. My best guess is that it was all about;

IMMIGRATION

Completely right empire

It boils down to immigration for literally every person I know of that voted Leave.

It is also the only rational explanation for the fact that Leavers don’t care about any financial arguments.

I don’t remember a feel good factor in the 80’s.

Ok I was only a child but I remember doom and gloom.

Probably because my area was absolutely hammered by Maggie.

I do remember voting in 97 and the feeling of excitement and hope I had for the future.

But hope in the 80s - nope that didn’t happen for my parents. They did do a lot of worrying though.

IF the 'problem' is/was immigration then it is/was a problem largely created by successive governments on how they deal with an influx of people. On the whole, immigrants do not move into a country, live in a crap caravan and live 'off the state' but either move as a family into at least reasonable jobs paying tax etc as others, or they create a new 'mixed' family. again paying taxes etc.
It is the massive failure of government to deal with large numbers of people in areas where work is declining, either because the major employers in the area have closed down or housing has been built without encouraging employment activity locally to sustain the housing.
People NEED transport, community, Water/gas/elec and decent broadband connectivity. It is obviously cheaper to provide these in 'cities' but a balance needs to be struck, and globally, relatively few governments have grasped this.
Blaming the 'easy targets' is just lazy and more than a bit unpleasant.
Who would not like to live where you 'work' a 25 hour week where you have opportunities to socialise and do the other 'life stuff' like shopping and visiting family and friends at a reasonable cost so all can afford it. Technology is not far off delivering that, but the backwards mentality of governments is preventing it.

You have a very rosie view of the 1980s. I grew up in Liverpool in the 80s, no feel good there just job losses and repossessions.

Rather pathetic to view 1980s as a time of hope. If you actually experienced it as an adult in N England (among other places) you'd take a different view.

larrygrylls

I presume you didnt see when the Chinese trade envoy came to the parliamentary select committee and laughed. We are in their words now 'a practice country' before they go and trade with the 'big boys like the EU'.

It is also the only rational explanation for the fact that Leavers don’t care about any financial arguments

Leave voters I know often say they don’t like EU control in addition to immigration. So far none have said that immigration was the dominant factor, but I get the feeling it was.

Immigration in UK as a % is spilt as follows:

Wales 6%
Northern Ireland 7%
Scotland 9%
England 15%

Wales seems to be the odd one out in that they have the lowest % of immigration they also voted leave?

Because you don't have to give any reasoning behind your choice of who to vote for, all of the 'reasons' can only be speculation.
Even just 'immigration' is a poor guide, as it has been taken to mean immigration from the EU, where most will probably actually blend in and integrate, whereas others may not.
The reasoning for Wales voting leave is probably not immigration but as a protest against the Westminster government.

Religious remainer:

We have zero negotiating power. If the EU says it’s posit is final, it is final. Our negotiating position, however, should be ever flexible to EU demands.

In my three years plus on these threads I have yet to see a poster who counts as a Religious Remainer.

Now that we have a US President dictating who our Ambassadors should be, I await just one Leaver who has instanced 'sovereignty' as their reason for Leaving, objecting to our becoming a Vassal state of the US.

A lot of people who are against 'immigration' are really against blacks, brown and Muslim people, who might easily have been born here, to parents who were born here, so are in no sense immigrants.

Not on MN threads, no of course not.

Leave voters I know often say they don’t like EU control in addition to immigration.

But as none of them can ever give any examples of how that control has affected them, it’s probably safe to say that too boils down to a dislike of foreign involvement

....it’s probably safe to say that too boils down to a dislike of foreign involvement

Not entirely - because they don't object to the US dictating terms to us. At a guess I would say they welcome that. They stay silent about China.