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Brexit

No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

496 replies

bellinisurge · 03/07/2019 20:14

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

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LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 05:31

Surely democracy is democracy?

Correct, but the bit you missed was that democratic votes have to be implemented in the order they happen. Nothing to prevent people from voting to rejoin the EU in the future if that option is presented by a party who is standing for Election.

Change UK party was established with the primary policy of UK remaining in the EU. Vote for them if you wish.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 05:41

That is Democracy, vote for what you believe in

I agree. 17.4 Million believe that leaving the EU is better than remaining in the EU.

given all the information prior to a vote

That did not happen at the time

The UK Government spent 9 million of the tax payers money sending information leaflets to every household in the UK to tell people why remaining in the EU was the best choice.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 05:45

I think most people with half a brain (and I include the potential incumbents for Tory Leader in that) would be happy for No Brexit now

If believe the polls Brexit Party are in second place on 23%

the dogs in the street

Wow. Was not aware that dogs in the street were "voicing" opinions over Brexit.

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 06:49

Nice weather for you in your time zone @LifeContinues ?

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bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 06:52

"Build a freeport zone on the Isle of Man as it is close to both NI and ROI."
Presume you have been to the Isle of Man to make such a statement. It's not very big and has its own Parliament who might have something to say about being concreted over and turned into a warehouse.

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Peregrina · 05/07/2019 07:38

Correct, but the bit you missed was that democratic votes have to be implemented in the order they happen.

So did the the Tory party - they promised two things in their 2015 Manifesto - to enfranchise people who had lived abroad for 15 years and a commitment to the Single Market. Both commitments which got chucked out the window.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 08:05

It's not very big and has its own Parliament who might have something to say about being concreted over and turned into a warehouse

So build it on reclaimed land close to the coast where NI and ROI meet. If you want to satisfy the GFA and the regulation for goods crossing between EU and Non EU states then you have to think of a permanent solution.

Unmanned technical solution at the Border would be at risk of vandalism. Shipping containers have a life span of around 10 to 12 years and may be used to transport goods to many different Countries around the World. So a tech solution installed inside a container specifically for EU may not be possible.

As a supporter of the WA what is your suggestion to solve the issue of UK being tied permanently into a customs union that was meant to be temporary?

If Brexit drags on forever do you think that is good for the UK? As LeClerc and others have posted Brexit is dominating UK politics and other issues are being forgotten.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 08:10

So did the the Tory party - they promised two things in their 2015 Manifesto - to enfranchise people who had lived abroad for 15 years and a commitment to the Single Market. Both commitments which got chucked out the window

Thought Manifesto promises didn't count? Like the Conservative and Labour promise in the 2017 manifesto to honour the referendum result?

Peregrina · 05/07/2019 08:13

Quite - Manifesto promises are a sales pitch. So this honouring the Referendum result is an oddity. Especially as it's not honouring the result, but honouring a handful of people's interpretation of how the result should be implemented.

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 08:15

Again @LifeContinues , all very nice. Hope you are having fun posting from the Far East. You aren't coming back here any time soon because the weather doesn't suit you, you said. So like many of the Leave voters who voted to protest at how they have been forgotten. Only they can't afford the move out like you have done.
Answer the question. What is so great about No Deal that it outweighs the downsides? Which you won't feel anyway because you aren't even in Europe let alone the UK.

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Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 09:03

@LifeContinues - Build a freeport zone on the Isle of Man as it is close to both NI and ROI. As Isle if Man and is neither part of the EU nor has special status import and export/passage through would not be subject to Tariffs.

You mean like a border in the Irish Sea? That's been vetoed by DUP and tories.

How does it stop the fact that on one side of the boarder people have benefits that those on the other side do not even thought they voted to remain?

Not only did they vote to remain, but the GFA guarantees parity of rights so there's another conundrum there.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 09:31

Not only did they vote to remain, but the GFA guarantees parity of rights so there's another conundrum there

Which would never become an issue as both NI and ROI were EU members when GFA made in 1998.

Another example of what Cameron missed before he promised a referendum on 23 January 2013 if he was re-elected. Obviously super confident that a leave result would never happen.

Peregrina · 05/07/2019 09:53

I think we are all both Remainers and Leavers of the opinion that Cameron was a prize idiot (being polite) so no need to mansplain that one to us LifeContinues.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 10:10

What is so great about No Deal that it outweighs the downsides

First you need to list all the upsides and downsides, which people are unlikely to agree upon anyway, then compare. Here are my ideas:

Upsides

Government actually takes note of what voters say

Sterling likely to devalue which makes exports cheaper to others.

Imports become more expensive so internal demand for UK produced goods and services increases

UK can implement trade deals directly whereas at present they are governed by EU

Subscription to the EU will end (deal or no deal) which is worth Approx 9 Billion per year

UK might be able to reduce, or even avoid, paying the 39 Billion

Stricter controls on future immigration

Downsides

No deal likely to be chaotic in the early days as UK don't appear to have a plan for No Deal

Not paying the 39 billion will likely hinder future trade deals with the EU

UK businesses whose revenue comes mostly from EU may wish to relocate to the EU for ease of administration. Employees of such businesses may object and so become unemployed.

GFA may fall by the wayside leading to a return of hostilities

I am sure others can think of many more to add to, or delete from, both lists

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 10:11

"GFA may fall by the wayside leading to a return of hostilities"
So casually said from thousands of miles away.

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LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 10:23

So casually said from thousands of miles away

Has not the same statement been made by many in the UK which is not thousands of miles away?

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 10:26

Not by me@LifeContinues . And by any one who thinks No Deal will destroy GFA.
Just because Farage and other twats don't give a shit, doesn't make it ok.

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Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 10:40

@LifeContinues - regarding your proposed tariff free area on the Isle of Man or off the Irish coast that trade between NI and RoI should pass through - you obviously have no idea about trade between NI and RoI. The vast majority of the trade is local. So milk collected north of the border and going to a creamery south of the border and then crossing back north to local shops/companies.

The ESRI have produced an interesting report on cross-border trade from an Irish perspective www.esri.ie/system/files?file=media/file-uploads/2018-03/BKMNEXT352.pdf

Just in case you don't want to bother reading it, here is an excerpt regarding dairy: Milk tankers cross the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland about 33,000 times a year. Northern Ireland produces around 2.2 billion litres of milk a year, of which some 30% is processed in the Republic. Milk and dairy products move in both directions, sometimes several times: cream from Northern milk is removed in Virginia, Co.Cavan, Ireland and sent back to the Baileys Irish Cream plant in Mallusk, Co. Antrim, Northern Ireland.

How do you propose dealing with this type of trade? All-Ireland trade is very different to cross-border trade elsewhere.

Thebigbagtheory · 05/07/2019 10:46

@bellinisurge why are you dismissing Lifecontinues views as irrelevant because they are not at present living/working in the U.K. when this comment applies to at least 2 of the frequent posters on this thread.
I do hope they’ll come on and answer why they think (based on your comment) they are entitled to reply.
Your comment also raises other questions too regarding the electorate who chose not to vote in the referendum. Should their opinion be excluded based on no vote, no say?
Should men not be allowed to comment either given that this is a forum for mums?

Lonelycrab · 05/07/2019 10:51

given that this is a forum for mums?

It’s a forum for parents actually.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 11:00

How do you propose dealing with this type of trade? All-Ireland trade is very different to cross-border trade elsewhere

So what is the solution then? If there is to be no on land hard border how else do you solve the issue of cross border trade without some form of offshore freeport zone?

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 11:03

@Thebigbagtheory , obviously happy for men to comment. Also happy for non-residents to comment as long as they admit that they actually won't be directly affected by any shitstorm that happens (slowly or quickly). Not sure why you think I have said anything to the contrary.

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bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 11:04

@LifeContinues , border in the Irish Sea. No us a free trade zone. There's your solution right there.

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bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 11:04

NI as a free trade zone not no us. But that works too Grin

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Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 11:08

@LifeContinues - So what is the solution then? If there is to be no on land hard border how else do you solve the issue of cross border trade without some form of offshore freeport zone?

The WA and the backstop are the only practical solutions to the problem, given the red lines drawn up by the UK.

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