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Brexit

No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

496 replies

bellinisurge · 03/07/2019 20:14

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

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LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 11:08

To TheBigBagTheory

Thanks for the support.

If people ask me a question it seems fair to reply. If you ask someone the same question it is very likely they will give the same answer as provided before.

To LonelyCrab I think BigBag was making the analogy that although the website is called Mumsnet it is actually a forum for parents and therefore men can take part too in the same way that someone who did not vote in the EU referendum can have a view on Brexit

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 11:15

But @LifeContinues , quite apart from apparently admitting you didn't even vote in the referendum (not sure why you didn't), you have, at best given us a little list of positives and negatives. Which we already know. And haven't given your weighted analysis if any of them. Because you just love the shit stirring from afar and don't really have to live with the reality of it.

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Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 11:16

@LifeContinues

Do you not think that GFA may fall by the wayside leading to a return of hostilities may impact negatively on UK can implement trade deals directly whereas at present they are governed by EU

A country that will renege on an international treaty just because it becomes inconvenient is not particularly trustworthy. Doing so will undoubtedly have a negative impact on trust, which then puts the UK in a poor trading position. Additionally, the Irish lobby in the US is very strong. Breaking the GFA will negatively impart on deals with the US. That has already been stated by Pelosi.

1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 11:35

{Upsides

Government actually takes note of what voters say}

Nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.

{Sterling likely to devalue which makes exports cheaper to others.

Imports become more expensive so internal demand for UK produced goods and services increases}
Handy except that food being one of the major necessities will go up.
A significant amount of UK industry is actually EU (or other country) owned, so their profits will fall. Failure of JiT will kill some off completely.

{UK can implement trade deals directly whereas at present they are governed by EU}
While this might be an interesting theory, in practice most things the UK wants are already traded through the EU and they will be involved (through WTO ruling) in most new deals.

{Subscription to the EU will end (deal or no deal) which is worth Approx 9 Billion per year}.
While true, it actually represents around 0.7% of the current UK GDP, about twice as much as the whole of the UK fishing industry combined IIRC.

{UK might be able to reduce, or even avoid, paying the 39 Billion}
The £39 Billion has already been established as the outstanding payments for ongoing activities, and a 'projection' to the end of 2021 (the original proposed end of a transition period).

{Stricter controls on future immigration}
It has always been available either by actually doing what most in the EU already do, or through 'emergency' provisions. When several countries joined a while back, there was a 7 year 'pause' in entitlements put in place by many countries. The UK didn't do this.

Failure to actually use the 'tools' available within the EU must not be blamed on the EU. While playing unfairly, the UK COULD have been far more draconian in letting EU citizens in, for which it would have been taken to court, and after a few years the UK might have had it's wrists slapped, by which time other mechanisms could be deployed.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 12:29

The WA and the backstop are the only practical solutions to the problem, given the red lines drawn up by the UK

Suggest you read the Legal Advice on the WA. The wording creates a scenario that could result in the temporary backstop becoming permanent and UK is locked into the customs union forever as there is no obligation on the EU to agree to a permanent solution that avoids a hard border. Even after many years of negotiation between UK and EU and they agreed to disagree would not cancel the WA. So UK would effectively have paid to remain.

The legal advice states that the protocol as drafted may not even be consistent with EU Law.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 12:34

Breaking the GFA will negatively impart on deals with the US

Trump supports no deal if UK can't get a favourable deal.

www.cnbc.com/2019/06/02/trump-tells-uk-to-walk-away-if-eu-doesnt-agree-to-brexit-deal.html

Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 12:37

@LifeContinues - Suggest you read the Legal Advice on the WA.

I didn't say the WA and the backstop are palatable to the UK. I said that the only way to ensure compliance with the GFA and the red lines created by TM is the WA and the backstop.

The problem is that nobody in the UK thought leave would win so made no effort to consider the impact of leaving. The British government generally gives no thought to NI unless there are bombs going off, and even then, little thought is given to the people of NI. The level of ignorance exhibited by British politicians wrt NI, cross-border interaction and the requirements of the GFA is actually shocking. NI is part of the UK but it might as well be part of Outer Mongolia for all most of them care or know.

1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 12:39

{Suggest you read the Legal Advice on the WA}
Whose?

Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 12:39

@LifeContinues - Trump supports no deal if UK can't get a favourable deal.

Well if Trump supports it, it can only be a good thing!

That has to be the worst argument in favour of no deal I've heard. Of course Trump supports it. A weaker EU is better for the US.

1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 12:44

The rantings of Trump are a million miles away from the reality of life in NI where regrettably 'kneecappings' and bombings still occur from time to time. Failure to understand the sensitivities of real people is what causes so many of these problems. The EU is of course fully aware of the issues, more than some in the UK cabinet such as Karen Brady (?) who is/was NI secretary.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 12:46

The problem is that nobody in the UK thought leave would win so made no effort to consider the impact of leaving

Correct, but that is now history.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 12:49

{Suggest you read the Legal Advice on the WA}
Whose?

The one prepared by UK Attorney General, Cox, that T May did not want to become public knowledge and force MP to hold government in contempt.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 12:50

That has to be the worst argument in favour of no deal I've heard. Of course Trump supports it. A weaker EU is better for the US

The reference to Trump was in response to the post that breaking GFA would make trade deals with USA more difficult.

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 12:55

"Trump supports no deal if UK can't get a favourable deal. "
Of course he does. Rich pickings in a free for all with a UK government desperate for deals. And obviously so. What's not to love for someone like him.
When you come back to the UK for this bright new future @LifeContinues , instead of your rather perverse game of Risk, you can share with everyone how great things are.

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bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 12:57

And you do know that Trump wanting a Deal isn't the same as the US accepting it. With all those Irish descent representatives on both sides of both houses.

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Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 13:05

@LifeContinues - Correct, but that is now history.

So that makes it ok then to break an international peace treaty just because it's now inconvenient?

The reference to Trump was in response to the post that breaking GFA would make trade deals with USA more difficult

The US is more than Trump. There is a massive irish-american lobby that has serious clout.

1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 13:08

{The one prepared by UK Attorney General, Cox,}
But he is only the UK attorney General. The GFA reaches above that.

Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 13:20

@LifeContinues - The one prepared by UK Attorney General, Cox, that T May did not want to become public knowledge and force MP to hold government in contempt.

Which only goes to show that a brexit that complies with TM's red lines and doesn't break the GFA is impossible. Time to either reconsider the red lines or reconsider brexit.

Thebigbagtheory · 05/07/2019 13:22

@bellinisurge by acknowledging Lifecontinues is in another country you know they won’t be affected by the outcome of Brexit so why do they need to admit to anything? From previous comments they do say that their parents are in the U.K. so are quite entitled to have an opinion, so not sure what your issue is.
I stand corrected that Mumsnet is indeed for parents so thank you to the poster.
May as well ask your opinion on the question you didn’t answer, which was - do you think the electorate who chose not to use their vote opinion matters?

noodlenosefraggle · 05/07/2019 13:23

Do you really think Trump, as man ripping up existing trade deals all over the place will give us a fabulous trade deal? The US pharma and agri industries are salivating at the thought of a UK no deal. Wonder why?

Peregrina · 05/07/2019 13:25

do you think the electorate who chose not to use their vote opinion matters?

Personally I do think everyone's opinion matters and we don't know why some don't chose to express it. However, since as a Remainer we have more or less been told to get lost, I can't see anyone going out of their way to find out what those who didn't vote thought.

1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 13:28

{do you think the electorate who chose not to use their vote opinion matters?}
It certainly matters less than those who did vote and are having their rights removed or at least impaired.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 13:29

But he is only the UK attorney General. The GFA reaches above that

The Attorney General did not comment on the GFA, but the wording of the WA with respect to the GFA. Advice was that the Protocol was open ended and may not even be consistent with EU Law. The EU would be required to look at UK proposals for a permanent solution, but not obliged to accept any of them. This opens the door for the EU to drag out the negotiations forever and Brexit does not occur as UK does not have right to terminate the WA even if negotiations have being ongoing forever and both EU and UK agree to disagree.

A winning position for the EU as it benefits from UK being in a Customs Union even though UK paid 39 Billion to leave the EU.

Very clear why MPs rejected the WA three times.

MorningRichie · 05/07/2019 13:30

Almost to a person, everyone I know who I had any respect for their intelligence before the referendum shitshow voted remain and everyone who I suspected was thick and/or racist voted leave.

It's hardly scientific, but telling nonetheless.

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 13:32

"do you think the electorate who chose not to use their vote opinion matters?"
Yes. If they live here. I don't understand why @LifeContinues didn't vote. I have family who are British and who live overseas (outside the EU). They all voted.

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