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Brexit

No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

496 replies

bellinisurge · 03/07/2019 20:14

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

OP posts:
smallereveryday · 04/07/2019 19:55

What I can't understand is this :

Democracy is the vote of the people . Do WHY don't those who believe in this sacred right want a DEMOCRATIC vote now. Why is democracy only ok in 2017 but to be avoided in 2019 ?

Surely democracy is democracy?

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 20:05

@smallereveryday

I don't think ANYONE has a problem with a democratic vote.

The issue is, the initial referendum was binary... In, Out, with no explanation as to the implications of that vote on the UK. No one knew what Brexit meant really apart from leaving the EU.

It is a lot more complex than an X on a polling card, as we can see now.

So slowly the implications of leaving with No Deal are becoming apparent. It is not a nice vista at all.

Maybe it is time for a vote on what Brexit actually means for us now, rather than soundbytes and visceral reactions on both sides.

We really need to know surely. That is Democracy, vote for what you believe in and understand and be given all the information prior to a vote. That did not happen at the time.

Jason118 · 04/07/2019 20:08

No, you're getting confused with 'brexit is brexit' Grin

bellinisurge · 04/07/2019 20:18

I think No Dealers would tell you that direct democracy- referenda - is democracy and parliamentary democracy- general elections isn't democracy. Because even though this Parliament was elected in 2017 it is not legitimate because it isn't Brexit-y. Even though it's our sovereign parliament. Hmm
You are an elitist and a space owner if you don't get this.

OP posts:
bellinisurge · 04/07/2019 20:19

Space owner GrinGrinslave owner

OP posts:
Peregrina · 04/07/2019 20:47

If May hadn't needed the DUP to prop up her Government when she lost her unecessary election, then the customs border would have been drawn in the Irish Sea and a WA passed by now.

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 20:49

Peregrina.

Exactly, but we are where we are. And maybe at the end of the day Brexit won't happen now. That would be miles better.

Peregrina · 04/07/2019 21:02

I hope Brexit doesn't happen, but we will have to do an awful lot of fence mending if it doesn't. Both domestically and in the EU.

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 21:09

Peregrina,

I think most people with half a brain (and I include the potential incumbents for Tory Leader in that) would be happy for No Brexit now.

The EU won't care much, they have 27 other countries to look out for, and hopefully 28.

There will be sighs of relief all round I reckon, if only someone would make a flippin intelligent decision!

No Deal Brexit is not an option. Everyone, the dogs in the street, the candidates for Tory Leadership, the LP, the EU know this now.

But to whom are they pandering. Could they not just say ENOUGH, it will not work anymore forget it and move on.

Sorry forgot about the ERG. They have been quiet lately though.

1tisILeClerc · 04/07/2019 21:13

{That would be miles better.}

Yes and no:
For the vast majority in the UK, yes staying in would be the 'best' outcome, but the MEPs 29 of whom have pledged to be as disruptive as possible and others are not exactly 'Pro Europe' would have to buckle down and work sensibly and act in the common good of the whole EU.
Then simultaneously the UK will need a strong stable government to actually take command, soothe the brows of Remainers and act in a Pro Europe manner and at the same time successfully put the ERG and the Brexiteers back in their box.
As we are aware, Captain Sensible has stepped out at the moment which logically leads us to:

Leave, to lance the boil and get the various themes such as British superiority and isolationism out of the system.
With the best will in the world, the UK is not a superpower any more, and it never will be again. The whole of Europe is in some ways on 'borrowed time', although it has the capability of turning things around if it wants too, and it has the resources, unlike the UK who will isolate itself to it's detriment.
The UK is roughly equivalent to France in GDP and population, but France has greater land resources (food production). Germany is roughly 1.5 times the GDP of the UK and leads in manufacturing, but again more land and resources.
Climate change seems to be more appearing more rapidly and it will be bigger blocs that will lead in altering the ways people live and hopefully reduce the climate effects. Of course developments in China will be the real killer in terms of climate change, if all their population aspires to a car, house and all the trappings the West expects. Persuading them to be innovative in the way they improve their lifestyle will be key to the planet. Where does the UK fit in, a small isolated island off the coast of Europe?

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 21:32

Le Clerc,

No Deal Brexit is disappearing. The Tory potential incumbents for leadership know this also, and are just playing to a very small gallery now.

Well all I would ask is what does it mean for me?

Silence.

But keep an eye on the ERG. They will benefit from No Deal for sure.

A monumental decision like leaving with no deal should benefit everyone. Does it, will it? I doubt it.

I would love to be corrected harshly if necessary.

Peregrina · 04/07/2019 21:34

But keep an eye on the ERG. They will benefit from No Deal for sure.

Don't write them off until they are well and truly finished, history. And with any luck some of them are on trial for treason, but that goes for Johnson too.

1tisILeClerc · 04/07/2019 21:40

No deal on 31 Oct is still the default and at the moment it will be Hunt, BoJo and May fighting over her handbag in the square outside the front of the EU at 10 minutes to midnight on 31st (EU time).

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 21:51

I doubt if any of the charlatans have the cojones to go full on No Deal now.

They know this, as does anyone with any intelligence too. All down to lack of planning and information to us all. And the support of a compliant media feeding anti EU rhetoric.

Playing to a gallery of 100k typical Tory members is easy. Doing the same in a GE might be a different animal altogether.

Peregrina · 04/07/2019 22:18

Outsomnia - we have to live in hope. My fantasy is that in an election with 650 seats up for grabs, first take off 50 for SNP, and then there is a 4 way split with Labour, LibDems, Tories, and Brexit getting 140 each and PC, Greens, DUP and SF making up the balance.

First dibs at having a go would be the Tories as the outgoing Government - but even with Brexit and DUP the numbers don't add up. Would Labour, LibDems, SNP and Greens & PC try to stitch up a coalition? They might just have the numbers to get a majority, but Labour would have to get off the fence first and jump or fall down onto the Remain side.

It won't happen, just a fantasy, as I said.

Peregrina · 04/07/2019 22:26

They know this, as does anyone with any intelligence too.

With what we have seen from Johnson, Hunt, Farage and now Widdicombe, intelligence is in extremely short supply.

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 22:36

Peregrina.

the result of the referendum in my view, gave credence to a certain cohort to absolutely hate the EU.

OK to vent in that regard, but I have my doubts that they really understood the implications of their anger.

That is what BP is playing on.

I still think and hope that a NO DEAL Brexit will not happen now.

Isthisafreename · 04/07/2019 23:10

@billysboy - Maybe the EU can be pushed further if they think you are prepared to leave if necessary and carry that with some conviction

The EU is fully prepared for a no deal brexit. It is not the preferred outcome but vast quantities of time and money have been spent on preparing for it.

I really don't understand the naivety of people who think that threatening to shoot yourself in the foot is going to get you what you want.

The EU have compromised in the WA. There will be no further compromise. The UK needs to either leave with no deal, and then agree to the conditions of the WA afterwards if they wish to have a trade deal with the EU, agree to the WA, change their red lines and come up with an agreement that involves staying in the CU and SM or revokes A50.

The EU will not blink and give the UK a better deal than membership, which is what the UK has been looking for. The 4 pillars will not be abandoned. Equally, the EU will not sell out Ireland by agreeing to a deal that contravenes the GFA.

Isthisafreename · 04/07/2019 23:40

@LifeContinues - Wording of WA risks UK being locked into temporary customers union forever.

Wording of the WA is to ensure the UK does not break the GFA while still complying with TM's red lines. Are to happy to break the GFA?

HateIsNotGood · 04/07/2019 23:42

Who blinks first isn't how the EU works, they are far above that - who blinks first is the sort of thing that the detritus that voted to leave do down the pub.

It's a bit late in the UK but I'm sure the 'usual suspects' will be on soon (as they're at least an hour ahead) to further substantiate my point that the EU are far more evolved than this.

Over to you guys.....

Outsomnia · 04/07/2019 23:46

@Isthisafreename

It is late and I must part, but kudos for your posts. Well said.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 04:31

Wording of the WA is to ensure the UK does not break the GFA while still complying with TM's red lines. Are to happy to break the GFA?

Build a freeport zone on the Isle of Man as it is close to both NI and ROI. As Isle if Man and is neither part of the EU nor has special status import and export/passage through would not be subject to Tariffs.

Hence no hard border required in Ireland so GFA is preserved and 2016 referendum result is honoured.

Where will the money come from for such a Project? Scrap HS2.

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 04:48

Go to Liverpool and ask them about why they voted Remain

They voted remain because they are entitled to chose.

LonelyTiredandLow · 05/07/2019 04:58

LifeContinues - how does that sort the issue that we will have access to EU regulated goods through NI if there is no boarder? How will it stop smuggling? How does it stop the fact that on one side of the boarder people have benefits that those on the other side do not even thought they voted to remain?
And how long do you think these things take to set up? Ready for Oct? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you also think we have "the tech" Hmm

I know leavers live in unicorn land but honestly!

LifeContinues · 05/07/2019 05:26

How will it stop smuggling?

Smuggling happens Worldwide and is unstoppable for as long as the same goods have different values depending on where they come from.

How does it stop the fact that on one side of the boarder people have benefits that those on the other side do not even thought they voted to remain?

There will never be a; policy, law, legislation, regulation that pleases everyone on the planet. There will always be winners and losers.

And how long do you think these things take to set up? Ready for Oct? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you also think we have "the tech"

Not ready by Oct 2019 that's for certain. The Port extension in Mauritius took 3 years to build, but one year of that was due to the Project being wrecked by a Cyclone. Two years would have been enough without the cyclone. Mauritius has a population similar size to NI.

I know leavers live in unicorn land but honestly

I did not vote either way. Your comment is yet another example of those who support remain looking for obstacles in the hope that Brexit will either be thwarted or a failure so they can say:

Na Na Na Na Na we told you so.

Odd logic as the success or failure of Brexit will affect everyone regardless of how they voted.

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