No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

[bellinisurge]

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

[Parker231]

Any suggestions from pro-leavers as to how we will resolve supply chain issues in the result of a no deal exit?

[bellinisurge]

@Parker231 , now that's just Project Fear. Believe it to be fiiiiiine and it will be fiiiiiine. Suggest otherwise and you are being unpatriotic and it won't be fiiiiiine because your lack of belief made it so.

[Bearbehind]

Being the whipping boy of the USA certainly isn’t an upside.

It seems Trump has blown Fox out

It’s going to work splendidly trying to negotiate a deal with them whilst Trump is still around.

[Parker231]

I guess posters don’t comment on supply chain and JIT as they aren’t aware of the implications? I had a client earlier this year decide to close its UK operations and move it to Belgium and Slovakia to avoid the risks of distribution to their supply chain.

[1tisILeClerc]

Parker231
With the combination of NDAs and not wishing to expose company vulnerability to others most seem to have been very quiet and only the very big boys have revealed anything and so far in general terms.
BMW have said today that Cowley mini production will be going into electric models later this tear for 'release' in 2020, but I don't think they have said much about long term. The drivechains will be supplied from Germany and meet up with main body in Cowley.
It makes sense.Whether Brits will be able to afford electric minis is possibly more debatable but the line building the bodywork is not easy to move. I suppose JiT considerations can be factored in for what will be expensive vehicles.

[Socksontheradiator]

Posters have talked a lot about supply chains and just in time on other threads, particularly the stockpiling ones.
That would be the remain leaning ones though. Leavers do seem to think it'll all be just fine, thus not worth mention, I assume.

[1tisILeClerc]

Just been reading a couple of the reports in the Irish times on the internet. It is worth reading whatever you can from outside the UK to get a better feel for what is happening.
They were suggesting possibly 55,000 job losses in Ireland (not NI) and a cost to the Irish treasury of €6 Billion in the first year for a 'crash out' Brexit.
Also bits of details as to why things will be bad, as so many small problems pile into each other.

[Outsomnia]

Hard Brexit will not happen I think.There will be a deal, but it will be the deal already negotiated WA. EU will not budge. Why would they?

And the GFA needs to be upheld. Biggy.

Don't forget that the two potential incumbents are only pitching themselves to a certain cohort of 200k of Tory membership, not the electorate as a whole. So I dismiss the two charlatans as charlatans. They know this also I reckon.

I am so very sad that it has come to this pass. But there is nothing I can do about it. We need someone with brains and balls to enter stage left now.

Will be great to see what the new PM does. It will hopefully be better than what went before. Am holding my breath here!

Farage party will not gain in a GE, they are too volatile and single issue but who really knows what some people will do to destruct us.

Time for tea and toast for me now.

[Peregrina]

Hard Brexit will not happen I think.

I hope not but I won't rejoice until it's dead and buried.

Will be great to see what the new PM does. It will hopefully be better than what went before. Am holding my breath here!

With either candidate, I expect nothing and won't be disappointed.

[Outsomnia]

Will No Deal get through Parliament as the potential incumbents are saying that is what they will do?

Will the WA get through Parliament?

Back to the future methinks.

[Isthisafreename]

@Outsomnia - Will No Deal get through Parliament as the potential incumbents are saying that is what they will do?

No deal doesn't have to get through parliament. If an agreement (either the WA or an agreement for an extension) has not been reached with the EU or the UK does not revoke A50, then no deal is the default.

At this stage, an extension is highly unlikely. The EU won't give another extension unless it is for something significant like a GE or another referendum. Patience with the UK has worn very thin at this stage. No deal preparations are going full steam ahead throughout the EU. The political rhetoric in Ireland is suggesting that no deal is pretty likely at this stage.

Hard Brexit will not happen I think.There will be a deal, but it will be the deal already negotiated WA. EU will not budge. Why would they?

Unfortunately, I don't share your optimism. I can't see Hunt or Johnson presenting the WA to parliament again. Even if they did, parliament aren't going to vote for it.

And the GFA needs to be upheld.

Unfortunately, none of them seem to give a damn about the GFA.

[TheEmpireNoMore]

I can't see Hunt or Johnson presenting the WA to parliament again. Even if they did, parliament aren't going to vote for it

I think the same.

Unfortunately, none of them seem to give a damn about the GFA

Hope it does not happen, but if it comes down to a choice between;

Ignoring GFA so Brexit proceeds, or

Upholding GFA at the expense of Brexit

I think whoever is next PM will take the first option

[bellinisurge]

My last crumb of optimism (where that is a relative term) is that Johnson or Hunt will try to force WA through with some sort of new weasel word bullshit that makes it sound like a new more Brexit-y thing.

But I was talking to a Tory activist yesterday (Hunt supporter I think but I didn't press) who said they don't have the numbers and predict a loss at the forthcoming by-election which will just make it worse.

As an aside they also said there was a Tory theory that the ambassador leak was actually to scupper another named civil servant's chance of replacing Darroch because he (Sedwill) was named in it in a way that was unflattering to Trump.

Said Tory sits next to a Momentum-ite at work. It gives me comfort to see that they are cordial and productive (even amiable) working together.

[StealthPolarBear]

If they ignore gfa then I hope that will be their legacy. Idiots
I do suspect you're right though.

[Mistigri]

At this stage, an extension is highly unlikely. The EU won't give another extension unless it is for something significant like a GE or another referendum. Patience with the UK has worn very thin at this stage.

It's very likely now that there will be a GE. I agree that patience with the U.K. has worn thin but the commitment to Ireland, and to peace in Ireland, remains intact I think. The EU will be looking for a reason to extend and it's hard to see the U.K. not giving them one.

[1tisILeClerc]

{There will be a deal, but it will be the deal already negotiated WA}

The WA is NOT a deal, it is the routemap to leaving, essentially a list of the 700 treaties that bind the UK and EU.
You have to consider that the choice of NOT signing is very grave for the UK and the EU have been saying since December that they expect the (or a very similar) WA will be signed to allow a transition period, if the signing is before the end of October, or a remotely possible further extension.
They have also said that there will be no new negotiations until the WA is signed. The very simple logic that surrounds this is that the WA WILL be signed, either by the end of October with a chance of a transition period, or following a 'crash out' when the UK needs to actually trade. At this point the UK will have very few if any cards on the table.
As the UK is tied into the EU so thoroughly, and the intention of the EU is not to screw the UK over, reasonable deals will be struck at some point, but obviously not as good as the UK being an EU member.
The UK is leaving the EU 'club' and there are written rules for this process that the EU is following. The UK is being a complete arse and is being as destructive as possible.
The most worrying thing is that the UK needs a 'best buddy' and so far it is shitting on everyone's doorsteps, China, Russia and the USA being the most important.

[1tisILeClerc]

The UK as a whole does not have the choice of 'liking' the WA, a higher power has said that they expect the UK to sign it.
Of course the UK can refuse, it has a right not to, but things will become exceedingly tough when all trade with and through the EU gets suspended, which has a ripple effect through practically everything the UK trades in.

[TheEmpireNoMore]

My last crumb of optimism (where that is a relative term) is that Johnson or Hunt will try to force WA through with some sort of new weasel word bullshit that makes it sound like a new more Brexit-y thing

Would that not require the EU to change the existing WA? Something they have said several times will not happen.

[TheEmpireNoMore]

It's very likely now that there will be a GE

How will a GE solve anything? Polls are not always accurate, but take a look at:

yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place

If the numbers can be believed a GE would result in Brexit Party being in the top slot as people migrate from both Conservative and Labour to Brexit Party. If so then a GE could result in a Coalition between Brexit and Conservative Party?

but the commitment to Ireland, and to peace in Ireland, remains intact I think

Some posters think that if Conservatives had not been reliant on DUP to obtain a majority then NI and GFA would have been ignored?

The EU will be looking for a reason to extend and it's hard to see the U.K. not giving them one

How does extending forever help the EU?

Both remaining candidates for next UK PM have pledged that Brexit, deal or no deal, happens 31 Oct 2019. After seeing T May lose her PM Job by not keeping promises I don't think either Hunt or Johnson will risk not delivering.

Huge turmoil will follow in the event on no deal and may last years, but will it affect Hunt or Johnson personally?

[bellinisurge]

@TheEmpireNoMore c I didn't say the EU should change WA. Absolutely not. But there's a slight chance still that Johnson or Hunt would come up with some spin to say it's acceptable now.

[1tisILeClerc]

IIRC the HoC had essentially passed the WA but they were mostly objecting to the backstop.
We have had 2+ years of opinion polls and speculation, but the legally valuable 'hard data' is nearly 3 years old.

[TheEmpireNoMore]

were mostly objecting to the backstop

That was the sticking point all the time as some feared that WA created a scenario whereby the UK would be in the EU permanently.

Leaving the EU and at the same time respecting GFA seems to have no solution. That means something has to give.

[bellinisurge]

The DUP should give so that we have a border in the sea and NI as a special economic zone.

[Isthisafreename]

@bellinisurge - The DUP should give so that we have a border in the sea and NI as a special economic zone.

The DUP are not a normal political party. They will not give way, no matter what the consequences. Plus, a no deal brexit scuppers the GFA, which, given their opposition to it, is only positive to their minds.

[Isthisafreename]

@TheEmpireNoMore

Hope it does not happen, but if it comes down to a choice between;

Ignoring GFA so Brexit proceeds, or

Upholding GFA at the expense of Brexit

I think whoever is next PM will take the first option

Unfortunately, I agree with you.