No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

[bellinisurge]

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

Wording is the way it is because of the red lines TM set based on being in hock to the DUP.
Border in the sea; NI is a special economic zone. Job done. We could leave on that basis. Unless you are angling for No Deal and set up some fake adherence to DUP to make it look like you give a shit about the Union.

But the hit to the exchequer following a no deal is estimated to be £90 billion. Even if they are wrong by say 50% (being generous) we will still lose more than the £39 billion to be paid to the EU. And a lot of that £39 billion will still be owed before a FTA will even be considered.
So we will lose out.

{But the hit to the exchequer following a no deal is estimated to be £90 billion. Even if they are wrong by say 50% (being generous) we will still lose more than the £39 billion to be paid to the EU. And a lot of that £39 billion will still be owed before a FTA will even be considered.
So we will lose out.}

Yep, that's what the leavers want.

First of all, the question on the ballot paper was leave or remain in the EU. It wasn't leave under certain circumstances or remain if leave looks a bit dodgy. It was simply leave or remain and leave won.
To that end, we've tried to find a deal (and will continue to) but at some point we have to leave. I think 3.5 years of negotiations is ample, if a deal can't be made then no deal will have to suffice.

Personally I don't think much will change, we have a massive economy, we are one of the worlds bit hitters. To think we'll just go to the dogs is ludicrous.

But really it's not about gains or losses, as much as the remainers get upset by that.
It's about whether the government asks a question and abides by the answer.
Which dictatorship is doing better for its people than our democracy?

{Personally I don't think much will change, we have a massive economy, we are one of the worlds bit hitters.}

The UK HAD a large economy, as part of the EU who took much of the heavy lifting in trade dealings.
The UK also has a government that is happy to let poorer regions decline further and is denying the need for foodbanks, and has crippled the NHS and many other aspects of the UK except the 'darling' London and parts of the South East.
The UK has previously punched above it's weight, but that is rapidly coming to an end. Unless it finds a large sack of 'niceness' and a promotes a genuine feeling of wellbeing for all in the UK it will degenerate badly. If businesses cannot thrive, they will simply move, there is relatively little about the UK that is unique.
Hunt is about to get a 'flea in his ear' by sticking his nose into Hong Kong as although he might be technically 'correct' to say some things the risk of China pulling the rug from under the UK is very high. China has quietly infiltrated much of the world and owns quite a bit of the UK in places that matter. The Russians may own a lot of Belgravia but the infrastructure that is 'controlled' by China is far more concerning.

To think we'll just go to the dogs is ludicrous.

There are plenty of countries and indeed Empires which were once wealthy but exactly that has happened.

A current example of a once reasonably prosperous country failing is Venezuela.

The impounding of an oil tanker bound for Syria by the British Navy has 'displeased' Iran. That will take a bit of delicate diplomacy.
Having MEPs acting like children with tourettes in Brussels is nothing compared to poking Iran, China and the USA with a sharp stick.

Venezuela was gorgeous 25 years ago, although it was starting it's decline at around that point.

Not much of a big hitter if people are too poor to buy imported stuff and we don't produce our own stuff. Which we don't do without massive investment either public or private. Which doesn't happen if the economy is downgraded because we don't keep our international promises e.g. GFA.

There will probably be a huge stimulus package in the event of no deal. Wa would constrain the shape of the stimulus so although it would soften the blow I think the medium term outlook is better under no deal. I’m pretty sure (from memory) that Carnwy’s forecast did not include stimulus, or much stimulus.

Where's the money coming from for this stimulus? What areas get the stimulus? What areas don't? It sure as heck ain't 350 million a week.

Personally I don't think much will change, we have a massive economy, we are one of the worlds bit hitters. To think we'll just go to the dogs is ludicrous.

Well let’s see how you feel about that after a year or two in no-deal unicorn land. Personally, I think you’re gonna be proved very very wrong. There is a reason why virtually everyone who’s actually in business, plus most of the governments in the world are looking at our situation with disbelief. It’s blatantly obvious that there will be severe problems across many sectors, yet you’re suggesting it’ll all be fine.

And if you turn out to be wrong you take the whole country off the cliff. I think there is massive problem with over inflated self importance now in this country, as perfectly shown by by our Brexit Party MEPs right now.

Same place it comes from when labour get in and overspend I guess they issue debt which someone buys except in this case it will be business incentives lower taxes etc.

But if we break an international agreement we will almost automatically be downgraded as an international borrower. Which makes it harder to borrow money.

How will it cover increased costs for a very large range of products. Do you know what the impact on public services will be of increased costs of pharmaceuticals, consumables, medical devices, equipment, food, etc? Do you know the impact and the cost of suddenly being without a clear regulatory framework for many industries? Do you know what the cost has been already for preparing for this?

No. Because leavers live in a little magic bubble where nothing matters if it doesn’t immediately affect their day to day living. Those of us in the real world, who actually have to deal with this shit in our working lives are very, very worried about no deal. There will be the immediate impact of raised costs and regulatory chaos, but much longer term effects through the UK becoming a less attractive place to manufacture and market in as, in terms of regulation, it will be a little island cut off from the nearest large economies and will essentially be in competition with them. Good luck with that.

Spot on Pigeon.

{There is a reason why virtually everyone who’s actually in business, plus most of the governments in the world are looking at our situation with disbelief. }

There are some who might consider it karma or 'payback' time.
The UK is pulling it's trousers down and bending over.

I don't think a Hard Brexit will happen now. There is really no desire for such a drastic step except amongst those who voted for the BP and the minuscule number of Tory members who will vote for the next leader.

I am not saying I am right, far from it, but to exit with no deal is the worst possible scenario, and even Johnson and Hunt know this now. They are just playing to their tiny audience in a leadership race.

My guess is another GE and another bloody long extension.

The Withdrawal Agreement is good enough to start the exit process, but no, the backstop is hindering that. Just leave NI in the SM so, and put the border down the Irish Sea. Who really cares about ten DUP bigots who are going against the majority Remain vote in NI. Ditch them stat and take the consequences.

Also remember that Nancy Pelosi and others have said that any redaction of the GFA will result in Trade Deals with US being non existent, or at least very difficult to achieve.

There may be trouble ahead.

Personally I don't think much will change, we have a massive economy, we are one of the worlds bit hitters. To think we'll just go to the dogs is ludicrous. Oh well that's alright then - nothing to worry about. Where did you do your economics degree? That statement illustrates why the question should never have been put to the country (well certainly not in the form it was put) - most people are simply not qualified to form an intelligent opinion and those same people didn't (and still don't) want to listen to what any expert has to say. Even those banging the drum for Leave at the time of the referendum with stories of untold riches for the NHS don't think it's going to great anymore - they are talking about things being worse for at least 30 years - but their supporters are so brainwashed they are still cheering along.

but their supporters are so brainwashed they are still cheering along.

Decades of nonsense in the sun/mail/telegraph plays a big part. Those are the true mainstream media and have been for years. Sprinkle in some heavily targeted social media, simmer to the boil, and what do you get?

Numpty casserole.

I despair when I hear people say "we shouldn't have been asked" "people didn't understand" "you need to be an economist to draw a sensible view"

These are the very arguments our forefathers and mother's fought so hard against in the fight for universal suffrage.

Forget economics for a minute, some people really need to check their history.

The peasants and the lowly women aren't capable of voting! That's were we are heading back to if we can't accept people can vote differently to you.

"These are the very arguments our forefathers and mother's fought so hard against in the fight for universal suffrage. "

BeLeavers are horrified by the idea that working class people don't support them. Doesn't fit their narrative. Go to Liverpool and ask them about why they voted Remain.

Letsrunfar I think that’s overly emotional, ill though out and misconstrued.

UK would have to be downgraded a lot to be as low as Italy or Spain and there's still a market for their debt. Our debt/gdp ratio is not particularly high.
The question was not do you want in or out, but is no deal better than WA. I think it depends when you are looking on the timeline. Short term the WA is better because the cliff effects will hurt, but medium/long term there will come a point when those issues are resolved and then it will all be about how effective the stimulus package is.

Hubris is negatively affecting sensible decisions.

No one with the power to do so will accept that it is really OK to revisit the issue and analyse it again.

But it seems that a sensible approach is out of the question now. And many will suffer as a result. The ERG are very quiet these days too.