Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

btw, I do NOT think it likely the WA will pass, just that it would be much better than No Deal

A PV still looks unlikely
and Revoke without it is even less likely than the WA

We need to find a way to avoid No Deal, even if that means MPs swallowing pride

Ah well maybe that's where we differ Tatiana. I have no idea whether the HoC will vote through the WA Once the clock has run down on any alternatives

The clock has already run down on the alternatives. And still the HoC voted down the WA three times.

All the available evidence indicates that the WA cannot be changed and cannot pass.

I don't think this is correct. The WA is a binding agreement, it's just not the "final" EU-U.K. free trade deal

Yes, you are right Misti. I worded that lazily and badly. Its a binding agreement but not the ultimate deal. It's what is in place whilst the trade deal is being thrashed out.

Reluctance of the HoC to vote for it doesn't mean that we won't have to if we want to trade with the EU again.

No sign = no trade deal. Unless we revoke.

Since there has been so much speculation and proposed courses of action on Westminsterenders and many other threads and platforms it make you wonder what, if anything is going through the heads of the HoC members.
It is as if they are waiting for the pied piper to arrive so they can follow after like the rats.

Since when do I have to have your 'approval'?
2 years worth of 'we won get over it' from 'leavers' without any attempt at a rational discussion has taken it's toll.

And talking to everyone, Leavers and Remainers alike, like shit helps how?

bellinisurge Sat 22-Jun-19 08:35:10

If someone else can command a majority with this current house - even a cobbled together one - no need for a GE until the fixed term ends or no one can command a majority.

This is why I am pondering the decision of Philip Hammond not to run for leader/PM this time, and also the very direct speech he gave at the Mansion House on the subject of the economy.

I suspect he would come across as a sane alternative to Boris Johnson and might garner cross party support. I don't think the losers so far in the leadership context could be called upon as they have demonstrated they do not have the confidence of the party.

All of this would depend of course on how well Hunt polls in the final roundup and also on what polls whisper to Labour and the Lib Dems about their prospects in a GE.

Did Theresa May do all these hustings back in 2016? I can't remember who she was up against or much about it.

The others - all Brexiters - dropped out. Ran off.

and if BJ and JC agree on a November GE, then we have until Nov 2024

All I have to offer now are jelly beans.

In the 2016 contest, the other candidates mostly suffered some mishap,
self-inflicted or e.g. the sabotage of BJ by Gove
(which favour he returned this time)

May was an accidental PM - after most of the others had accidents

The 1st question is whether BJ can survive until the 22 July vote,
or whether such a dirty great skeleton, brand new or old, falls out of his closet, that even he can't brazen it out.

I do hope it's before he becomes PM
Apart from the national shame of him ever becoming PM, the scandal that could bring him down would be even worse

Otherwise, I'm not sure it matters for the country which of them becomes PM
The expression "Going to hell in a handbasket" comes to mind
Who can stop it ?

Hmm - why would Boris be looking at the lady's laptop, wouldn't have thought that was in his skillset. If, on the other hand, she's preparing a 'kiss and tell' that's worrying him, then when would be the optimum time to release it? We can but hope.

Ahh, that's right they all ran away in 2016.
Leaving TM to it!

What sort of scandal could bring him down? Being a serial adulterer with children out of wedlock doesn't seem to have harmed him. Wasting public money while Mayor of London is something he's got away with.
Having blazing rows with his latest girlfriend, so that the Police have to be called has led to loads of people apologising for him on these threads.

Being found to be a paedophile is about the only thing I think could do it. ( And before anyone jumps in, I am not saying he is one.)

I’m still thinking it’s going to be health related - pretty sick to make it up but maybe needs must.

Peregrina, being arrested for a criminal offence would probably do it. But I'm not holding my breath.

Stranger things have happened at sea though; and this is Boris Johnson we are talking about. It is very hard to believe that a sane person running for the most senior public position in the U.K. would have a violent row with his girlfriend this week of all weeks. He lives in a flat: he must have known there was a risk of people overhearing.

What this says to me is that this is a person with no impulse control who assesses risk poorly. A lot can happen in a month, especially if he starts to come under pressure.

Perverting the course of justice, like lying about speeding, could land him with a prison sentence, and then a recall petition. I am not sure that this could happen in time.

I am sure there is some illness he and his doctor could contrive. Didn't McMillan have prostate troubles, which made him throw in the towel? Then they weren't nearly as serious as had been thought and he went on to live for another 30 odd years.

What about the report the Police is holding onto about the referendum election and funding? The one that is supposed to be finished for about 1 year bt still hasnt been released.
Id like to see those investigations incl the one around BJ before he gets to be PM.

If BJ has an 'accident', then Hunt will get the PM job. Im wondering how good he will be....

Wasn’t “the lady” looking at HIS laptop, which kinda makes you wonder what she was looking for (I recommend the Relationships threads on MN for how eye opening a little look at a partner’s laptop can be!)
Also, isn’t he cocklodging? No idea if he is contributing towards the running of the household. Divorce proceedings can be cripplingly expensive and your funds can get tied up. Would not be at all surprised if he had cash flow problems.
His DP should open her eyes - the time is past for women to get their status by hitching their wagon to a man, if she has ambition, ditch him & go for her own political career.

Hunt at the hustings, not good:

"Now we don't know what the situation will be on the 31st of October,

but if there is no prospect of a better deal, if the European Union have been as inflexible as you say, and if no deal is on the table,

then I will leave without a deal because we must keep our promise to the British people"

BJ will have to say the same

Bad time to have cash flow problems:

BJ and Hunt each have to pay Tory Central HQ £125k for the hustings

I suspect it is non-refundable if one has to pull out part way
< ouch, bad image, sorry >

Continually insisting the WA would need to be signed in the event of no deal just winds people up.
Bearbehind

It's not the case that The WA per se would need to be signed no matter what. As far as I can tell, this is not what people are arguing.

The situation is that basically, the UK will have to agree to the terms of the WA no matter what form or in what document or documents they appear in order to proceed with a trade agreement with the EU.

The EU will insist on the same fundamental foundations (i.e. the WA terms) to any trade agreement with the UK.

Otherwise we would be looking at a world in which the EU would have to forget about the current fundamental elements of a trade relationship with the EU (the four freedoms) if a departing state decided to call its bluff and just go No Deal.

Abandoning the terms of the WA and starting again with new and different rules of engagement with the UK would encourage anti-EU forces in big states to keep leaving the EU on the agenda, and would encourage unhappy states to leave and play hardball with the EU.

Without holding the UK to the terms of the WA in some form or another, the EU would be looking at a situation in which other individual states could also dictate their terms if they decided to leave, and depending on how enmeshed their economies were with the EU or with the Euro this could spell disaster.

Nothing is guaranteed in the EU unless the EU works to keep its foundation strong. Big players have to be kept in line just as much as former Warsaw Pact members with smaller economies; all have to be taught that there are conditions the EU will stand firm on if they decide to leave but still wish to trade. The EU can't afford to face a future in which France or Italy go over to the anti-EU right and get away with dumping EU principles while still trading.

As i said earlier BCF, Hunt will say what is required to secure his win.... as of course so will Johnson, just as May did...

...before reality kicked in.

Maybe Boris is cash strapped?
Divorce looming with ( no doubt) expensive London lawyers dragging it all out , child maintenance, now 125k for these hustings ( which strike me as a waste of time as they will say the same things every time and we will learn nothing new) I know his very rich etc etc , but money must be running out of his accounts like Usain bolt at the Olympics.
No sympathy here but he must be on the back foot in his private life.

Maybe Boris Johnson's soon to be ex wife will do an ' exclusive' with one of the papers? (I know that the ' news of the world' would have tried to get her to talk to them back in the day I bet!)
She might stay loyal though.