Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

[Tanith]

I've had a couple of people pick up on my posts about Hunt and Johnson. I've no insider knowledge so it's as much guesswork as any of you, but these are my observations.

I've been struck by the way he does get things going his way, not all of it seems to be obviously by design. I've seen how he only has to say the word, and people are scurrying to do what he tells them. The last two GEs, something happened to decimate the opposition so that he had virtually no competition for his seat.
The very strong rumours were that TM was going to sack him after the last GE. Somehow, that didn't come about and he remained in place. Did he refuse to go, or talk her round? Did something else happen to intervene?
It might be his ability, it might be coincidence, it might be luck. If so, he's been incredibly lucky, hasn't he?

He does have a track record, with BSkyB, with the NHS, of taking unpopular policy and forcing it through. There's no doubt he can and will do exactly the same with Brexit if he has to. He was a Remainer, but quickly changed tack after the Referendum. He is whatever is necessary to get him into power and that's what's behind his Hard Brexit, Leave with No Deal (but I don't like it) stance.

He has a very carefully cultivated image of the typical Tory family man, much like Cameron did. That's going to hold a lot of sway with the traditional Conservatives: you know, the ones that are actually voting for their leader, the ones who cut Cecil Parkinson. Especially when contrasted with Mouth Almighty with the yo-yo flies zip...
According to the Guardian, he's distantly related to the Queen. He's also distantly related to Oswald Mosley.

There are controversies. His tenure as Culture Secretary ended with the BSkyB fiasco and he barely hung on to his job. Yet he was promoted to Health Secretary.
As Health Secretary, he oversaw the run down of the NHS and openly wants it sold off. His tenure saw the first ever strike when he clashed with junior doctors. He even clashed with Stephen Hawking. He was one of the most unpopular Health Secretaries we've ever seen.
There are lesser controversies that are always quickly smothered.

Many months ago, he declared he had no intention of running for PM. That alerted me at once . Gove said the same thing. When a politician makes that statement, you know they're seriously considering it.

Then Trump made his comment, that has indeed been ignored by our media.
He said he didn't know who Gove was and had never met him - an obvious lie.
He said Johnson and Hunt would do a good job.
That tells me, at any rate, that it would be Johnson and Hunt as the final two and that Trump knows it. How does he know it?

They've received large donations from the same people, according to Open Democracy, who have also done some digging. Another indication that both will be in the final contes - and why are they funding two candidates?

And now we have the bizarre antics of Boris Johnson making as big a show of himself as he possibly can, as publicly as he can. Why is he doing that?
While this is going on, Hunt is keeping his nose clean and benefitting from the fuss being made elsewhere. It reminds me so much of John Major's campaign. Hunt even declared himself the underdog, so that's how he wants to be seen.

So a lot of questions and observations making me think this is all a smoke-screen. They've already decided who will be leader, they just need to convince the party faithful to vote for him.

Of course, they may be going for a repeat of Trump, but I don't think they'll want someone so flamboyant and unpredictable here in the UK. Trump famously can't keep his mouth shut. He certainly gave the game away regarding the final pair for the leadership - and why did he endorse both of them? Why not just Johnson?

There we go! Read and dissect!

[Songsofexperience]

By the way, I am not exactly suggesting a time limited backstop- more like a formal date to work towards but subject to the technology being operational by that point (whether or not we believe such tech can work is a different debate).

[Peregrina]

I don't know why you sneer at the US contribution to WWII.

Nowhere did I sneer.Nowhere did I say that Americans didn't lose their lives in the war. I was pointing out that the UK deludes itself that it has a Special relationship with the US. If it ever did, it most certainly doesn't now.

The bottom line is the US historically has detested, and disliked the British Empire.
And they knew that fighting by fighting the War Britain was on the way to wrecking its Empire.

[1tisILeClerc]

{By the way, I am not exactly suggesting a time limited backstop- more like a formal date to work towards but subject to the technology being operational by that point}

The EU would like a system that works too but know that a) the technology and situation is not available yet and may not be for 10 years or more, if ever and b) the UK are pisssing around and are not behaving like a rational, trustworthy country, particularly when you have 'loudmouths' in cabinet saying they will happily tear up treaties.

[BigChocFrenzy]

songs, howabout That suggestion of a time-limited backstop is from the UK side - and has been rerjected many times by the EU !

• time limits of even 7 years have been turned down by Ireland / the EU
  
  because a time limited insurance policy is not an adequate insurance^
  
  The backstop would need to stay during the negotiations - which could take several years -
  and its terms would then be embedded in any future trade deal, in case the UK later withdraws
  
  Many Leavers have this persistent belief that eventually Ireland will cave in, or tat the EU wil dump them
  
  This idea of "digging our heels in" is a ridicuous over-estimation of UK leverage wrt the backstop:
  ^
  
• If the EU dumps Ireland, then it is destroyed politically and will disintegrate within a few years
  Irish MNers can say whether Ireland itself would choose to cave in to Uk pressure, but so far no sign ^
  ^
  
• If the EU lets all UK have full frictionless trade, i.e full EU trading benefits, then all countries will invoke MFN clauses and demand the same, so the EU will be seriously damaged economically
  
  German and other country's business leaders have repeaatedly warned their govts to protect the SM over protecting trade with the UK

[BigChocFrenzy]

howabout Prominant ERGers like Patel and Blunt have spoken of using Ireland as leverage to force concessions form the EU

Talked of "starving out" Ireland.

The country most leveraging the border is the UK

Theresa May for the all-UK backstop obtained as near frictionless trade as possible outside the SM,
by leveraging EU concern over Ireland
Several EU members were very unhappy about conceding so much to the UK

The EU would do very well with a Canada-type deal - it would be hugely to their advantage
It is only their solidarity with Ireland that prevents them going for something like that

[BigChocFrenzy]

Nigel Farage: I would join Tory coalition to ensure no-deal Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/24/nigel-farage-deal-tories-ensure-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson

Brexit party leader praises Boris Johnson ^and criticises ‘intrusion’ into his private life

[derxa]

He certainly gave the game away regarding the final pair for the leadership - and why did he endorse both of them? Why not just Johnson? Because Hunt was sitting right there in the audience when Trump said it. Even Donald can be diplomatic at times.
I like Jeremy Hunt and he is beginning to look positively prime ministerial.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Hunt reciprocated by RTing Trumps approval of the disgusting Islamphobic rant by Haty Hopkins

Hunt compared the EU to the Soviet Union, whereas BJ compared the EU to the Nazis
Both of them are regarded with disgust and total mistrust by the EU
So even less reason for the EU to just trust the UK over anything

All that can be said about Hunt is that he is not a chaotic lazy fuck like BJ,
who keeps getting headlines for all the wrong reasons

Hunt has the added disadvantage that the govt won't disintegrate as quickly under him, compared to if BJ were in charge

[Iambuffy]

derxa
I can only assume you have private healthcare?

[Peregrina]

Brexit party leader praises Boris Johnson

I assume that Johnson already knew this? I picked up his words to that effect that we had 29 Brexit MEPs to put our case in the EU on the BBC hustings programme with the then 5 contenders. Now he didn't specify the Tory party, which strongly suggested to me that he had already thrown in his lot with Farage. Needless to say he wasn't pressed to explain exactly what he meant. The Tory party doesn't have 29 MEPs - I think it was 9.

[Dapplegrey]

According to the Guardian, he's distantly related to the Queen. He's also distantly related to Oswald Mosley.

So if he’s distantly related to Oswald Mosley he must be a fascist?
If the Guardian are looking for mud to fling, that really is scraping the barrel.

[1tisILeClerc]

{All that can be said about Hunt is that he is not a chaotic lazy fuck like BJ,}

What a wonderful CV that makes for the pair of them!!

[Peregrina]

Could Farage and Johnson co-operate in any venture? They both have oversized egos.

[1tisILeClerc]

{So if he’s distantly related to Oswald Mosley he must be a fascist?
If the Guardian are looking for mud to fling, that really is scraping the barrel.}

Exactly.
If you go back far enough we are all descended from an amoeba.

[derxa]

I can only assume you have private healthcare? No.
Anyway one of the candidates will be PM. I like Jeremy Hunt. He's resilient and trustworthy unlike BJ.

[1tisILeClerc]

{Could Farage and Johnson co-operate in any venture? They both have oversized egos.}

Farage is 'playing' with his 'friends' in the EU far right parties and with being chums with Bannon and others, so his 'game' is not the same as Johnson. Farage is not just UKIP but a wider 'disrupt the EU' network.
Farage's 'work' is to be disruptive, causing his and others financial gain in the process, not to really 'lead' or be responsible that a PM might.

[Iambuffy]

Then your liking of cunt hunt is deranged.

[prettybird]

Derxa is in Scotland iirc, so Hunt (stopped myself from using the rhyming slang ) has no jurisdiction over our health service (and our Junior Doctors were therefore not involved in the dispute over their contracts)

....although because iirc, health is one of the areas where ultimate control has been pulled back to WM if required under the "power grab" of devolved powers in the Withdrawal Bill, so it might be indeed at risk in the secret trade talks with the USA

[Iambuffy]

Hunt is a dangerous man

[derxa]

I love how stating a mild preference for a candidate in PM race is 'deranged'

[Iambuffy]

If you dont have private healthcare?....yep

[BigChocFrenzy]

Happily choosing one venereal disease over another is unusual

[derxa]

I don't think calling a man a 'venereal disease' is particularly edifying.