Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

The EU cannot force the UK to sign the WA

The Uk cannot force the EU to negotiate a new trade deal

See who lasts longest

Exactly! We can refuse to sign the WA and crash out with No Deal. But the minute that we want to open trade discussions with the EU, they will require us to sign up to what are essentially the main elements of the WA.

So in refusing to sign the WA up to this point, the HoC has been monumentally stupid. If we want to leave the EU but still trade with them, we WILL be signing the WA in some form. The HoC have just refused to sign the version of it which leads to least disruption.

When the EU have not changed their stance on this, and have repeatedly reiterated their position, it does seem ridiculous for the position to be denied because it "winds people up". Be that as it may, it doesn't stop the facts being the facts.

That leClerc is a man, makes no difference to these threads. People know what they are talking about or don't. Irrespective of sex. With regards to the WA he does know. As does BCF. Their information comes from the words of the EU. If people do not like the information, take it up with the EU.

I wish people of all Brexit stances in the UK would realise that disliking facts does not stop them from being facts. Remain unicorns exist no more than leave ones.

The EU has said a significant change in Uk attitude - or a GE or PV - would be needed for an extension They keep repeating that the WA will NOT be changed even if the Uk position "evolves", i.e. drops red lines, only the future relationship^

It's the old "if you wanted to get there, you wouldn't have started from here" canard.

It's ironic and tragic in equal measures that the best possible Brexit for the UK (which would axiomatically make it a good Brexit for the EU) could only be attained by revoking A50, having a long hard think about what we want, and then returning with something that could fit on both sides of a postage stamp.

Maybe the only way, DG although politically toxic

Problem is, even if we did so, the EU quite understandably would not trust the govt, or a future govt
So there would still be a backstop, an insurance policy in case we renege

Jeremy Hunt seems to be doing much better than Johnson

Am I right in thinking they're doing this sort of thing 16 times?! Surely not?

Brexit is fucked. Whatever happens to the UK there is no version of Brexit that improves our lot.

Hunt is getting more support from the audience than I thought he would too.

Yes, there are 16 hustings though not sure of the format or who is hosting them all. I think Iain Dale has done a good job of hosting this one.

So in refusing to sign the WA up to this point, the HoC has been monumentally stupid.

Unless they don’t want to leave the EU at all.

Exactly! We can refuse to sign the WA and crash out with No Deal. But the minute that we want to open trade discussions with the EU, they will require us to sign up to what are essentially the main elements of the WA.

No-one is disputing that. But being forced to accept the barebones of the WA in the event of No Deal is a completely different kettle of fish from Parliament agreeing the WA deal. It’s the difference between leaving with a Deal and without one.

BCF and LeClerc are no better informed than anyone else on the thread, you just happen to agree with them.

The biggest Remain unicorn I see on this thread right now is the belief that somehow the WA is going to pass with a bit of tweaking.

I don’t really know how many more times I can say the WA not open for renegotiation for it to permeate.

What was monumentally stupid was negotiating a WA without consultation and consensus in Parliament on what kind of deal was likely to pass. That united both sides of Brexit against it.

I cannot bring myself to watch...

How did they do?

Hunt is certainly not down or out is he? he is a great actor, some of it almost seemed heartfelt....almost.

Big prob for him is he was (still is?) a remainer, shocking he (says) go for no-deal, despite the economic consequences as that is democracy... a bit like Mays "They've voted for pain"

How about these idiots do what is best for the country? that is their only duty.

We keep hearing the HoC won't accept No Deal

The WA or PV or Revoke are the only ways to avoid that
Extensions or a GE just put off the decision

The new WA could be put as the Leave option in a PV - that's one way out
WA vs Remain

Or with an updated PD and soothing language could be given to the HoC as a final chance to stop No Deal,
say the day before before we otherwise Brexit
So an absolute WA vs No Deal decision

What other ways to avoid No Deal would anyone like to suggest that are so much more feasible ?

The WA isn't a deal. It it a roadmap which gives us time to negotiate a deal.

Yes, the government were stupid not to gain cross party consensus in the first place. They were even more stupid for putting in place so many red lines. But as they DID put in place those red lines, the EU wrote the only WA it was possible to write.

When MPs voted to invoke article 50 prior to any cross party consultation, they abdicated responsibility for its contents to the government. If they wanted to revoke, they should have voted for it. If they didn't want to leave with No Deal, they should have voted for the only WA on offer. The fact that the Opposition have been woeful in demanding involvement in the negotiations whilst being happy to invoke A 50, is not the EU's problem.

Yes, passing the WA after a No Deal is different. We will have lost all our protections and will be desperate.

I don't agree or disagree with BCF or leClerc. I do believe statements of fact from the EU. That is all that those two posters are espousing. Why would I not believe the facts the EU have made abundantly clear?

If Hunt became PM, he would be damned as a Remainer as soon as he strayed from a 31 October Brexit

I don't know if BJ could bluff it out ?

The biggest Remain unicorn I see on this thread right now is the belief that somehow the WA is going to pass with a bit of tweaking.
That doesn't make sense.
If the UK remains the WA does not come into play at all, the UK would have revoked and everything stays as it is, EXCEPT that the UK has pissed off many manufacturers and sections of the service and finance industry and the won't come back. Any sniff of repeating this ballsup within say 20 years and industries will definitely stay away. Airbus schedules are in the 10 - 15 year time frame with an eye to longer, and it is similar in car manufacturing.
It is for this reason that if the UK decides it wants to revoke, the consensus should have a high margin, as the EU can see the 'politics' behind the ERG and Farage as similar exists in other countries. Any significant chance of a repeat performance and the EU will just end it. All negotiations have at least 2 'sides' and too many in the UK are only looking at the UK side. Why would the EU want the UK to stay if it is just going to be disruptive? Although the money is 'handy' it is not a make or break aspect to this.

{What was monumentally stupid was negotiating a WA without consultation and consensus in Parliament on what kind of deal was likely to pass.}
Of course, but if the UK is leaving the EU, the actual legislation that gets 'dropped' (the 585 pages worth) would not look significantly different whoever wrote it.

It’s true that technically the WA is an agreement. By the same token No Deal is actually No agreement. But everyone has been here long enough to know what is referred to.

I do believe statements of fact from the EU. That is all that those two posters are espousing. Why would I not believe the facts the EU have made abundantly clear?

So do I. I have kept reiterating that the EU has stated there will be no more renegotiation of the WA.

It is BCF, not me, who believes the WA will pass with some tweaks and ‘soothing language’.

I believe the EU. They will not renegotiate. And the HoC will not pass it as is.

"being forced to accept the barebones of the WA in the event of No Deal is a completely different kettle of fish from Parliament agreeing the WA deal"

Yes, self-harm does not require a vote
After No Deal, we lose the great advantage of transition, we have a crashed economy

either way, we suck up the same main terms
It seems perverse to do so without gaining the benefits

Also, how long will it take after No Deal for the Uk govt to give in - 6 months, a year, longer ?
Govt ministers will be well insulated

Lesser mortals could suffer badly: meds, food prices, unemployment, rent arrears / negative equity, repossession, homelessness
The economy could suffer irreparable damage, e.g. firms that leave won't return

The calculations on how bad it could get, assume the govt coming to its senses quickly
We don't know if this will be the case

I found this list but still looking for times... will they all be broadcast live?

The 16 hustings are scheduled to take place as follows:

June 22: West Midlands
June 27: South
June 28: South West
June 29 (afternoon): Lakes and Borders,
June 29 (evening): North West
July 4 (evening): Yorkshire and Humber
July 5 (morning): North East
July 5 (evening): Scotland
July 6 (morning): East Midlands
July 6 (evening): Wales
July 11 (evening): South East
July 12 (evening): Gloucestershire
July 13 (morning): East Anglia
July 13 (afternoon): Eastern
July 17 (evening): London

An ambitious PD, that does not negate the WA, has always been available
and the EUCO staatement has just added it again

Of course the actual terms of the WA cannot be renegotiated, just add some more flowery language
We need a figleaf, to soothe pride

Ah well maybe that's where we differ Tatiana. I have no idea whether the HoC will vote through the WA Once the clock has run down on any alternatives. If it is clear that revoke and/or a people's vote won't happen, then I have no idea if the HoC will vote through the WA rather than let us crash out.

I would hold anyone who voted against it, at that point, in the highest contempt. No Deal will fuck the poor and disabled in this country. I refuse to back that in a "well it's what they voted for so tough" manner, when that stance will lead to deaths and smacks of petulant, student politics.

Did Theresa May do all these hustings back in 2016? I can't remember who she was up against or much about it.

The WA isn't a deal. It it a roadmap which gives us time to negotiate a deal.

I don't think this is correct. The WA is a binding agreement, it's just not the "final" EU-U.K. free trade deal.

It's a precursor to a FTA, that enables most aspects of the current trading relationship to be continued while the details of a FTA are ironed out. The fact that it's a binding agreement is what enables the EU and the U.K. to continue to trade on preferential terms under article 24 without breaching WTO regulations.

Without the WA, there is no agreement between the U.K. and the EU and article 24 is irrelevant. It's irrelevant for two reasons: firstly for article 24 to apply there has to be a deal (what is it about "no deal" that no-dealers seem incapable of grasping?), and secondly both sides have to want it. The idea that it rescues the U.K. from no deal is just more unicornism of the pinkest and most sparkly kind.

As for EU statements I think you have to distinguish genuine red lines, which won't be breached - the non-negotiation of the WA is one of these, they have even disbanded the negotiating team. OTOH statements about whether or not there will be another extension, and under what circumstances, are largely political and have the potential to be adapted new political circumstances (or not, as the case may be).

15 more hustings

15 more occasions for BJ to drop a clanger