Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

i still do not believe any PM will contenance a No-Deal brexit, the simple reason is that it destroys the economy

I’d agree Hunt probably wouldn’t, and he may opt for a GE as the most plausible way out of the quagmire.

But I think it’s possible Boj may opt for No Deal. If that happens, based on previous form, I reckon the Tory moderates will contribute to bringing him down and trigger a GE.

This Parliament only acts when there’s a gun to their head and the clock ticking.

Misti not sure they have factored in Wesminsterenders entryism though.

Hasn’t Farage ruled out forming any sort of pact with the Tory’s?

Interesting to see what happens in next by election and whether BXP will stand anyone.

Could be a repeat of Peterborough where vote is split and they hand it to the Lib Dem’s. Not sure Farage’s ego would enjoy campaigning really hard and coming up short again. He felt he could win Peterborough and was quick to play the vote Tory get Labour card.

In iirc the Times, the suggestion was that BJ would No Deal for 1 November
and call a GE in November, before the effects of No Deal has filtered through
- maybe call in October even, for 1st week November GE

Surely even Jeremy Corbyn is not stupid enough to agree to a GE called less than six weeks before a no deal brexit? And even if he was - surely his mps would defy the whip on that?

And as for calling it 'before the effects of no deal are felt' - what happened to the warnings of the ports being blocked a couple of hours into day one? Meaning shortages following pretty quickly (especially allowing for the panic buying that will have gone on before hand). And the massive and immediate crash in the pound? Not to mention the delays in JIT manufacturing causing factories to have to shut, and the struggle to get hold of chemicals to purify water, and the medication issue. No way are we or will we be prepped to deal with all that. They stood down no deal prepping back in March - and what they had then wasn't adequate. If Boris is thinking he can sneak in an election before people feel the effects then he is an even bigger idiot than he looks. And that is a pretty high bar!

BCF
In iirc the Times, the suggestion was that BJ would No Deal for 1 November and call a GE in November, before the effects of No Deal has filtered through - maybe call in October even, for 1st week November GE

He can't just call a GE, even a snap one would be just before xmas (unheard of) and of course requires a 2/3rd majority, JC hasn't the control over his party to ensure this, even if he agrees.
You should know all this but even the BBC failed to mention the FTPA in its snap GE round up.

Are you terminally stupid? The EU will not enter any further negotiations with the UK until the WA (or a very similar photocopy) is signed. On the basis that the UK would like to be able to eat and trade one follows the other. Falling out of an aeroplane without a parachute won't kill you, but hitting the ground at over 100MPH will.

What does this inarticulate mess even mean. What are you trying to say?

Tusks Brexit summary after EUCO June

Tusk's statement agrees with German report of Rutte's statement, but not what pp upthread said was reported in French media
Different view or translation issue ?

"we are open for talks when it comes to the Declaration on the future UK-EU relations if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve,
but the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation"

Tusk's statement was that even if UK position "evolves", i.e red lines change, the WA still stands,
only the FUTURE relationship changes,
i.e. maybe a "Declaration on the future UK-EU relations " as a very tarted up PD

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/06/21/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-after-the-euro-summit-meeting-on-21-june-2019/

At the end of our meeting, the EU27 briefly came back to the issue of Brexit.
We have agreed on the following, united approach of the EU27:

• we look forward to working together with the next UK Prime Minister;

• we want to avoid a disorderly Brexit and establish a future relationship that is as close as possible with the UK;

• we are open for talks when it comes to the Declaration on the future UK-EU relations if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve, but the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation; and

• we have been informed on the state of play of planning for a no-deal scenario.

Are you terminally stupid?

Don't get the impression Tatiana is stupid at all :)

And as for calling it 'before the effects of no deal are felt'

I agree it’s narnsense. The effects of No Deal will be immediate.

jas JC will agree to any GE
imo, very difficult for Labour MPs to go against their leader in a vote to keep the Tories in power

Almost all Tories would vote for a GE, so should be enough Labour MPs to reach the ⅔ necessary

Fanks Jaz

LeClerc seems to have got out of bed on the wrong side.

Tusk was forced to restate that the WA is not open for renegotiation in response to Hunt and Boj’s separate recent claims that they would renegotiate the WA to suit them and their supporters. That will not happen.

What would happen if there were a GE and referendum and different political landscape is a moot point.

Montchalin made it clear that the WA cannot be renegotiated, that France is expecting the U.K. to leave in October and the only condition on which France would grant a further extension would be on the basis of a ‘profound change’ to the U.K. political position.

We need to remember that many, maybe most Tory politicians, believe in the ERG fantasies about WTO rules and also GAT A24 that howabout was posting,
i.e. they think No Deal will be ok anyway - or they have to pretend they do

My take of the more reliable sources predicting how No Deal will play - some economic analysts, RNorth etc

• They think it won't be immediate disaster, but a cumulative effect over time

The most serious effects of No Deal will take weeks, maybe months to come through
Some will take years, e.g. cars firms, Airbus pulling out of the UK

What we'll see in the first 6 weeks say are some shortages and price rises, but essential stocks should last that long,
sterling sinking - another 10-15% ? -
but not the million spike in unemployment, not the multiple business bankruptcies and departures

So a GE in November could brush off the first couple of weeks "it'll blow over"

{LeClerc seems to have got out of bed on the wrong side.}
All sides of my bed are fine thanks.

TatianaLarina struggles with the concept of cause and effect.

Are you terminally stupid?

Now I’m aware that leclerc is male I find his rude and derogatory comments like this even more arrogant.

France's position is being reported here as that they will veto any extension, unless they see a possibility of the UK changing tack,
which, as reported also by Varadkar, is taken as meaning only for a GE or PV

What is absolutely not reported here is any suggestion that a fundamental change after a GE in red lines would mean negotiating a new WA

• that is ruled out, as interpreted too in Tusk's remarks, new red lines would just produce a new glorified PD

A PV would settle things more quickly & clearly
Since there must be a Leave option, the question is do you prefer WA or No Deal ?

Biggest problem with a PV:
Most Tories are against and so is JC - he wants a GE instead

btw, also reported are that many countries agree with France about vetoing an extension

and all extensions depend on BJ deciding against a November GE and a possible new 5 year term

^the Times, the suggestion was that BJ would No Deal for 1 November
and call a GE in November, before the effects of No Deal has filtered through^

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act it's no longer in his power to call a GE when he wishes. One would hope that Corbyn would be persuaded to see sense especially since their losses in Local And European elections, to see that now is not the time for an election. Let Johnson/Hunt/Tories take the flak.

I assume though that if he went for a No Confidence vote then the GE might happen. Hmm, difficult.

I can't see Farage himself putting up in Brecon and Radnor - a bit too out in the sticks for him.

Fucking hell, how can this absolute arse be going to be our next PM? I'll prepared, nervous and awkward, like a naughty schoolboy.

Awkward, a mess, a complete and utter twat.

all extensions depend on BJ deciding against a November GE and a possible new 5 year term
We shouldn't assume BJ gona get it!

Bearbehind
What has being male got to do with it, do you have a problem with men? If so, you need to get that sorted. My comments have been gender neutral.

Now I’m aware that leclerc is male I find his rude and derogatory comments like this even more arrogant.

Says more about you than him tbh

I reported leclercs terminally stupid post.

Yes, Leclec, DG are both blokes. So are a couple of others
No, it doesn't make their comments worse or better, cleverer or dafter

The whole of the Westminsterenders threads are a collection of 'best guesses' and speculation dragging snippets of information from around the world, which makes it interesting but ultimately no one KNOWS what will happen.
Posters that perpetuate the idea that the EU will just 'reopen the WA because the UK is special' are deliberately muddying the water as the EU's position for the last 6 months has not wavered and for many reasons will not get changed by any significant degree.
You can only work with the ingredients that are available, and a change to the WA is not available.

Whisky2014
My post was a question, for others to come to a conclusion about, not a statement.