Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

TokoyoSushi are you watching Boris at the hustings ? For anyone not watching, Boris refused to answer any questions about the incident on Friday night and is blustering and baffooning away as usual. It is despairing but fascinating (not in a good way) to watch.

With this Tory shambles, now even Putin is trolling us

https://www.rt.com/news/462460-putin-uk-prime-minister-vote/

While the UK loves lecturing Russia on democracy, the peculiarities of its own political system may raise more than a few eyebrows,
Putin told Rossyia-1 broadcaster on Saturday.

“Take the way the first man in the country, the head of the UK’s executive branch, is propelled to power,” he offered.

[Is he elected] in a nationwide vote?

No, [he is elected] by his party’s get-together.

Truth be told, this is strange to me but this is how the [British electoral] system works.

@1tisILeClerc it breaks talk guidelines. The fact is was a question isn't better than it being a statement. Hence it being deleted.

JC will agree to any GE, imo, very difficult for Labour MPs to go against their leader in a vote to keep the Tories in power

Depends though, why try to get into power when the economy could be going into freefall? and the Tories set to carry the can for this?
Because imho they will indeed be blamed by the electorate for brexit.

Does anyone think that the U.K. might actually get more. Oncessiins from the EU by threatening to revoke and re trigger Art 50 later than by saying they will go for s No Deal.
The E.U. has factored in a crash Brexit but what about an endless phony Brexit

@Violetparis Yes! He's settled down a bit now but the start was horrific!

DG is a great poster.

LeClerc’s ok when he’s not throwing his toys out the pram.

But if you can’t raise your game above insults I’m not interested.

Fucking hell, how can this absolute arse be going to be our next PM

It’s like an episode of League of Gentlemen run amok.

Tokoysushi I am watching it about 5mins behind actual time. He is not getting a totally easy ride from the audience, almost cheered at the audience member asking him about the 'fuck business' comment.

Detailed explanation on GAAT 24 reasoning.

brexitcentral.com/the-facts-about-gatt-article-24-and-how-it-can-deliver-a-clean-managed-brexit-by-31st-october/

Basic point of WTO and previously GAAT is getting rid of tariffs and trade barriers. Completely counter intuitive to argue they would ever seek to make a country impose them. Also doubt they have the necessary teeth and even if they did the legal process would take decades (research bananas if you are bored and doubt me)

I've watched a few clips. My takeaway is that he has either never been very clever or he has suffered some sort of cognitive deterioration. A man who knows how to use words to shut down debate but who has no interesting or original thoughts.

Iain Dale doing an OK job, though I just went on his timeline on twitter and he is getting a lot of stick for defending Field - people are having fun retweeting a clip of Dale assaulting a protester a few years ago (he received a police caution).

Detailed explanation on GAAT 24 reasoning.

But it's guff. You need to read something that wasn't written by far right activists.

Go and read what people with trade expertise have to say - Peter Ungphakorn on twitter would be a good place to start. 18 years experience working in the WTO secretariat makes him somewhat more qualified to comment on this than most.

I'm pondering the wisdom of the Tories trying to enter a pact with another party (BXP) something they have never done before in reaction to circumstances they have never faced before.

Something about the devil you know keeps nagging in my head.

There's also a question - a very real question - about the possible sudden excitement in the Tory party about something novel, when the entire point of Brexit is to return to the old days.

{LeClerc’s ok when he’s not throwing his toys out the pram.}

Since when do I have to have your 'approval'?
2 years worth of 'we won get over it' from 'leavers' without any attempt at a rational discussion has taken it's toll.

An article 24 explainer on this page (click to expand on the article 24 question).

www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2019/5/20/brexit-interviewer-guide

Written by someone who has been involved in negotiating trade deals for a living.

My takeaway is that he has either never been very clever or he has suffered some sort of cognitive deterioration.

I have never believed the 'he's really very clever, hiding behind a buffoonish persona' bullshit. I believe the buffoon is a persona - put there to manipulate us into thinking he's harmless, and to make him memorable - but I don't buy that behind it he's actually some Machiavellian genius. He's had an expensive education and as such knows some stuff - but that isn't the sum total of being smart. He's incompetent and lazy and dullwitted, with very little analytical faculties. He just happens to have ruthless ambition and floppy hair (until he got it cut). The bumbling might be put on but the incompetence isn't.

Hunt is a much better speaker. Shame his a Tory.
( he reminds me of David Cameron a bit with the rolled up sleeves etc)
He voted remain ,so I guess Iain will ask him this first!

Posters that perpetuate the idea that the EU will just 'reopen the WA because the UK is special' are deliberately muddying the water as the EU's position for the last 6 months has not wavered and for many reasons will not get changed by any significant degree

I haven't seen anybody suggest this. There's been questioning as to whether it may be possible if the red lines were dropped, but nobody here has suggested it'll be reopened because 'we're special'. That's either a misreading or a deliberate fabrication.

Go and read what people with trade expertise have to say

Ah, but remember, I think we've all had enough of experts - M.Gove.

Now would be a very good time to point out how far that attitude got him, since he isn't the one squaring up to Boris the Basher (you have to wonder what was on that laptop) right now.

Catching up on the this thread 🧵 I see people are no less testy than last night!

What is absolutely not reported here is any suggestion that a fundamental change after a GE in red lines would mean negotiating a new WA - that is ruled out, as interpreted too in Tusk's remarks, new red lines would just produce a new glorified PD

That absolutely was reported in the U.K., but it’s somewhat irrelevant as I read the story in the French media.

Essentially, Tusk has said the EU would be prepared to rewrite the PD, which pertains to future customs union and single market relations etc.

But given there’s no consensus in the current HoC on future relations it would be as difficult to get any majority for any alteration to the PD as it was for the Deal as is (was).

( he reminds me of David Cameron a bit with the rolled up sleeves etc)

I was lucky enough to attend a Cameron Direct at DS' school in 2009 (DS had brief interest in politics ...). It's why I believe he really was a EUphile - not from convenience.

You won't find the video which was made of the event, as it was basically an hour of him having to face down quite a nasty racist crowd. Lot's of "that lot", "them", "they", "over here", "you knows"

DS wanted to sit in the front row (which was easy - most people wanted to sit at the back). I was less than 2 metres from him at a few points (he was standing on what had the dimensions of a pallet) so who knows I could have changed the course of history ....

The EU has said a significant change in Uk attitude - or a GE or PV - would be needed for an extension

They keep repeating that the WA will NOT be changed even if the Uk position "evolves", i.e. drops red lines, only the ^future relationship

Tusk statement on Brexit after June EUCO:

"^we are open for talks when it comes to the Declaration on the future UK-EU relations if the position of the United Kingdom were to evolve,
but the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation;"

I'm curious, howabout SInce you're a Lexiter, why notlink JC's Brexit fantasies, instead of the ERG ones ?

If you want a veteran Leaver's comment on tariffs:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87274

In a further dose of reality, we see another of the ERG's little bubbles burst,
with the UK government having already announcedd^ a temporary tariff regime in the event of a no deal.

Under this regime, 87 percent of total imports to the UK by value would be eligible for tariff free access
but tariffs would still apply to 13 percent of goods imported into the UK,
including a mixture of tariffs and quotas on beef, lamb, pork, poultry and some dairy goods.
In addition, a number of tariffs will be retained on finished vehicles.

Although many of the "ultras" have been assuring us that we could adopt a zero tariff stance with the EU,
the government press release tells us that, if we did this,
we would also have to extend it to the rest of the world under WTO rules.

This would minimise disruption to EU trade but would open the UK to competition from other countries including those with unfair trading practices.

The EU has said a significant change in Uk attitude - or a GE or PV - would be needed for an extension

I know, that is what I said in my post:

the only condition on which France would grant a further extension would be on the basis of a ‘profound change’ to the U.K. political position.