Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Yet no-one has said anything about the HoC passing Revoke. That’s a false position. Certainly not for the moment.

More likely scenario imo is a GE.

No, Rutte as reported in Germany at least, was talking of the future trade deal, not the WA

regardless of red lines, the WA stays (+ maybe cosmetic changes, new dates etc )
What changes can only be the PD

Merkel reiterated this yesterday

I understood that the EU won’t embark on any trade talks after a crash out without some prior arrangement containing the three main elements of the WA - money, citizens’ rights, the Irish border. So nothing happens until the WA (or its very close relative) is in place.

After a GE, we would face the same problem, just with some new MPs:

The UK must eventually either pass the WA or Revoke or No Deal

Yep, that's what the EU keep telling us, born

But the HoC isn't needed to revoke. Theresa can revoke without them, stick to fingers up and walk off in to the sunset...

Yes only the PM can Revoke
It is just v unlikely that a Tory PM would destroy their party to do so
and unlikely that any PM would Revoke without HoC approval

I give it max 5% chance that May would do so, say if BJ can't command a majority and we are stuck in limbo

The HoC will have to decide eventually, but the one thing they have decided definitely is against May’s WA.

The only possibility for the WA’s resurrection at this point is by GE and or a referendum and a wholly new political direction.

As France’s European Affairs secretary De Montchalin recently said, there would have to be ‘profound change’ in Britain’s current political stance, ‘a totally new political line’ in the UK for the EU to reconsider the WA.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/plans-are-drawn-to-hold-early-election-3lc3h3pzm

Boris Johnson is drawing up early election plans as part of his preparations for No 10
as
a poll suggests that almost two thirds of Tory members would support a pact with the Brexit Party.

The latest YouGov poll for The Times, which was taken before news broke of the police being called to the home of Carrie Symonds, Mr Johnson’s girlfriend, after a row between the two,

shows that Mr Johnson is supported by 74 per cent of Tory members.
Jeremy Hunt has the backing of 26 per cent.

< I wonder if / how that's changed >

Only 19 per cent said they might change their mind during the course of the month-long ballot of the party’s 160,000 members,
with 80 per cent saying they were fairly certain of their choice.

{The HoC will have to decide eventually, but the one thing they have decided definitely is against May’s WA.}

While this might be very fine and dandy it has fuck all to do with the position stated by the EU. The HoC can hate it as much as they like but they do not have the 'final' say in international legal terms. The UK's failure to understand this is causing a lot of the problem. Look at it from the position of the other 161(?) countries, the UK HoC/parliament/PM has NO ability to overrule international law. It can sign treaties and agree to things but a 'No deal' rips a lot of that up.
The HoC mainly refused it because of the backstop element, not the bulk of the WA itself and as has been pointed out repeatedly, the backstop is needed because the UK can't be trusted, and the longer this farce goes on, trust goes down with it.

Commission européenne@UEFrance

@JunckerEU
"Concernant la question du #Brexit, il n'y a rien de nouveau. Il n'y a rien de nouveau car, nous le répétons unanimement, il n'y aura pas de renégociation de l'Accord de retrait" #EUCO
....

Mina Andreeva@Mina_Andreeva

@JunckerEU #EUCO
"On #Brexit there is nothing new.

There is nothing new because we repeat unanimously: there will be no renegotiation of the #WithdrawalAgreement.”

Big possible that 2/3 of Tory party members are also BXP members.

BCF Despite the recent rhetoric, i still do not believe any PM will contenance a No-Deal brexit, the simple reason is that it destroys the economy, 2.5 years before a mandatory GE.
So, ND risks splitting the Tory party just as sure as Revoke would do.
You can also bet your last Euro that the public mood will change completely once ND happens...wasn't there a recent survey that had around £50 max as the price leavers would be prepared to pay for brexit? a collapse in the £ will add far more to the avg foreign holiday..... being stuck in a 100mile traffic jam for Cornwall will not seem soooo attractive.

The WA and the ensuing deal negotiated by the Tories/ERG will still wreck the remainers who cannot escape its effects.

I suspect that we are heading for a PV or a GE, but Johnson, like Trump could do anything, he is no hardcore Brexitier.

{There is nothing new because we repeat unanimously: there will be no renegotiation of the #WithdrawalAgreement.”}

This isn't decisive enough, I think if I were a 'leaver' or 'Brexiteer' it might mean that Boris can just waltz in and renegotiate. *

• MNHQ, we need a multiple facepalm or headsmack on wall emoticon.

And as dreadful and horrifying as it sounds ... 2/3rds of 160 000 is less than 55000. The electorate is actually quite a bit bigger than 55000 (whilst this is not a surprise to many of you it may be something of a shocker to Boris). In a GE it isn't members he needs to win over - it's swing voters.

Continually pushing Revoke, while saying the WA can't be passed, also winds up some of us

Not sure who is doing that but I know I’m not.

I’m resigned to no deal and fuck ‘em.

It’s the only way out of this mess - to make an even bigger mess

{being stuck in a 100mile traffic jam for Cornwall will not seem soooo attractive.}

No problem. With Trump angling for a fight with Iran, they may not be able to afford the petrol to get to Cornwall.

Big possible that 2/3 of Tory party members are also BXP members.

They can be BXP members. Supporters, yes, though perhaps 2/3 is an overestimate.

It looks as if Tory party membership has risen significantly in the last year or so, I think almost all of this is probably due to entryism - either centrists joining in the hope of influencing a leadership election, or people organised by Arron Banks and his deselection campaigns in constituencies with remain Tory MPs.

Also Boris seems to be assuming that a pact with the brexit party is just there for the asking (a bit like he thinks he can just renegotiate the W.A). Not necessarily true. Farage wants to destroy the tories, not work with them. And even if he were inclined to work alongside them as a sort of trojan horse - hoping to overtake them from a seemingly friendly position - he only need to look at what happened to the lib dems when they were junior partners in coalition with the tories. It would be the worst possible position for farage to find himself in just as the brexit shit hits the fan - no where to hide, left holding the can and the useful idiot fall guy, there to take all the tory blame.
I don't rate Farage's intelligence - but he is a political cockroach. If he so much as flirts with the idea of actually touching government with a long stick, just as his own shit stirring comes home to roost, then it is because his own ego has got the better of his sense. And two massive egos and one massive blame game - no way that coalition would last more than 6 months.

jas In iirc the Times, the suggestion was that BJ would No Deal for 1 November
and call a GE in November, before the effects of No Deal has filtered through

• maybe call in October even, for 1st week November GE.

Then they think they would win a substantial majority - because Brexit happened, but insufficient time for people to feel hardship - and would stay in power until Nov 2024

That would give time for them to see if they can either smooth out the Brexit crash,
or for the fat cats to loot for 5 years

They assume by 2024 that an apathetic, low-info electorate would accept the new normal and the "strong govt" of the Tories
They might even be right

While this might be very fine and dandy it has fuck all to do with the position stated by the EU. The HoC can hate it as much as they like but they do not have the 'final' say in international legal terms.

And this has fuck all to do with the current position of the U.K. The EU does not have the power to compel the U.K. government to sign the WA.

Repeat after me: the U.K. government has voted down the WA three times.

There is no international law that can force it to accept the deal.

The EU cannot force the UK to sign the WA

The Uk cannot force the EU to negotiate a new trade deal

See who lasts longest

Does anyone see a way out of this impasse? Eventually time would sort it out in some way but I am not talking about a generation hence. I could see that if Brexit got extended again, it could be the same as effectively kicking it into the long grass.

sorry 2/3rds is about 100 000. 1/3 is around 55000 - I forgot to times by the numerator! But still the entire electorate is tens of millions. 100 000 votes split between Boris and Nige aren't going to get them very far.