Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Article 24 only applies if both sides are negotiating a longer term arrangement
The EU won't negotiate if the UK No Deals
Hence A24 won't apply

I thought A24 had been debunked multiple times already, most recently by Carney, who added:

"We should be clear^ that not having an agreement with the EU means there are tariffs automatically^,
because the EU have to apply the same rules to us as they apply to everyone else".

and the UK will have to apply the same to the EU s to everyone else

• there was a proposed schedule of UK tariffs

{No, the EU's contingency plans are nothing like the bare bones of a deal}

As BCF said, it is not a 'deal', it is a 12 point plan that the EU with the exception of the UK have put together with the sole purpose of cushioning the 'no deal' disaster for the EU and it's industries. So planes can fly, with restrictions and under EU total control. Ships sailing, trucks driven and so on. This is for either 9 or 12 months (depending on subject) and any or all can be withdrawn at any time by the EU if it feels the activity does not help them any longer.

Continually pushing Revoke, while saying the WA can't be passed, also winds up some of us

Revoke has no more chance of passing the HoC than the WA - and probably less

The PM could choose to Revoke without HoC approval - also a tiny chance

{Continually insisting the WA would need to be signed in the event of no deal just winds people up.}

Tough shit, get over it !

Seriously, @DGRossetti ?" Interesting to see such some MNetters have clearly decided there is an acceptable level of domestic abuse allowed in a relationship. Not sure that's going to act as a great inducement for any future victims."

What on earth are you talking about?

I can see a small chance of the WA passing with cosmetic concessions - backstop totally unchanged in practice - but maybe tweaking the Exit Bill and citizens rights and even renaming it

It would still be the WA, but we just don't know the new name

A small chance, but higher than the chance of the HoC voting to Revoke

The exit bill probably needs renegotiating anyway as the UK did not leave on 20 March and is not in a transition period. I think it was Ivan Rogers who mentioned it in his 'speech' referenced by BCF, saying that the cost to the UK will go up.

FWIW paying tax really bugs me, can I get out of it or do I have to just 'suck it up'?

YouGov

Choosing Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt is only worth 2-4 percentage points of extra vote share,

but either candidate delivering Brexit would provide the party a 12-14 point boost

This will be driving both candidates - how the Faragists take Tory votes if Brexit is not delivered on 31 October:

YouGov

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulusuploads/document/83dqkzbaly/Internall190619VotingTesttw.pdf

@bellinisurge

I made the mistake of dipping into some of the AIBU threads about Boris the Basher (that's one for the Daily Mail) - there were more than one poster effectively saying that the neighbours should have minded their own business, and who goes around taping domestic disputes anyway ?

It was very hard not to form the impression that "this isn't domestic violence. It's M&S domestic violence"

Coming so quickly after a parade of posts excusing Mark Fields behaviour, it left a distinctly unpleasant feeling in my mind.

inniu
Indeed
But - atm - we do have a functioning NHS and (ha!) Sort of welfare system.
Without either of those in a no deal scenario we are talking huge increases in death rates - across all age ranges.

Has anyone wargamed Boris the Basher dropping out leaving Hunt as last man standing ?

Would that make a GE more or less likely ?

FWIW I think the gameplan means there could only be a PV after a GE if there's no majority government.

Would either get a majority though?

(As leader I mean...)

Why the xxxx would i want the WA ? its a blind brexit, its brexit! the final arrangements steered by the ERG, no doubt resulting in a v poor deal in anycase.

To be honest, if the uk population and its Govt are determined to leave the EU, then screw them all, have no deal.

Continually pushing Revoke, while saying the WA can't be passed, also winds up some of us

It’s a simply fact that that the WA has not been and cannot be passed. Thinking a few tweaks and it will be fine is basically as delusional as Hunt and Boj’s clams this week which led to the EU to state again that they will not renegotiate.

It’s complete unicornland to contend that either Boj or Hunt will re-present the WA, as is with purely cosmetic tweaks, to the house and for it to pass.

Why the xxxx would i want the WA ? its a blind brexit, its brexit! the final arrangements steered by the ERG, no doubt resulting in a v poor deal in anycase.

Well quite.

Superfans of the WA have to ask themselves whether they’re actually Remainers. I’m not convinced.

@DGRossetti , a row, even one with swearing, doesn't always mean domestic abuse. And fwiw, neighbours were quite right to record it - like a dashcam - and call the police if they were concerned.

Yes attitudes toward the WA have hardened over recent weeks, the Irish would have to agree to the backstops removal and that is highly unlikely to happen, its not a "tweak"

Of course as Mark Rutte said IF the UK drops its red lines, then there could be a new WA negotiated but that requires a significant extension and neither hunt or bojo will agree to that... or rather the Tory party won't.

{It’s complete unicornland to contend that either Boj or Hunt will re-present the WA, as is with purely cosmetic tweaks, to the house and for it to pass.}

Well that is a problem for the UK to come to terms with.
In the meantime Oct 31st looms and the UK will automatically be out with no deal unless somebody does something positive.

The WA is only a 'blind Brexit' and a 'threat' to the UK if there are no decent UK negotiators available to take the job seriously during a transition period.
Since the UK government has no fucking clue what it wants and is perpetually lying to the general public who also can't decide what it wants it will accept what it gets given, have none of you ever had two arguing kids wanting different things?

Is this some kind of inquisition to see if we're pure enough ?

If you think the WA won't pass even with cosmetic change, what makes you think Revoke will ?

" if the uk population and its Govt are determined to leave the EU, then screw them all, have no deal."

Right, so if we can't Remain, you wan the maximum punishment for the oiks who want Brexit
and also the vulnerable Remainers who can't escape are acceptable collateral dmage

Nice

The HoC passing Revoke is more of a unicorn than Revoke

The HoC passing Revoke is more of a unicorn than WA

Shouldn't type over lunch !

{Of course as Mark Rutte said IF the UK drops its red lines, then there could be a new WA }

No, the WA is the 'procedure' but the PD is the document that defines which of the parts of 'procedure' get carried forward through negotiation, putting the UK somewhere on Mr Barnier's staircase diagram. The 'new WA' would be a subset of what the only WA contains now, perhaps with minor tweaks.

{Shouldn't type over lunch !}

Getting salad cream out of a keyboard is near impossible!