Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

whisky because a few Tory MPs previously said they'd resign the whip to prevent him becoming PM
With a current majority of only 3, there's hardly any leeway

Also, the DUP wouldn't trust him - who does ! - and might demand a new c&s agreement, with "no backstop" written in blood

Dominic Grieve has said Johnson wouldn't command a majority and has previously said he would resign the whip if needed now...

Grieve, maybe Ken Clarke too ?

If only 2 Tories vote gainst BJ, then he is defeated

... unless Hoey and a couple of other hard Lexiters vote for their Brexit PM ?

Do we think Rory Stewart too?

Ok thank you

Amazing that Tories are 3 % up with their leadership contest

• well, that was before news about BJ & Field !

Britain Elects@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 23% (-3)
LDEM: 21% (-1)
CON: 20% (+3)
LAB: 20% (+1)
GRN: 9% (+1)

via @YouGov, Chgs. w/ 10 Jun

imo, not Rory

He is a Tory and one with a future ahead of him, if the party doesn't disintegrate

He said he would rebel if a PM tried to prorogate Parliament for No Deal

The story about police being called to BJ is news in Germany
Also the Field video causing disgust

Just when I thought our reputation in the EU couldn't sink any lower ....

It hadn't occurred to me that this could be the next twist in the tale.

What if he doesn't command a majority, JC calls for a VONC but loses that? Is that the same as commanding a majority?

{Loads of people are saying the WA is dead, and loads of others saying it isn't.}

As BCF has said, the 'decision' over the WA is now entirely in the hands of the EU and they have said consistently since December that the matter is closed. The UK can squeal as much as it likes, this aspect is now defined by the EU.
Of course the UK can leave and not sign the WA or something that will be very close to a photocopy of it, but unless it suits the EU, all trade with the EU and by extension all the other 40+ countries that use the joint regulations will cease.

Have to say I feel a bit thick asking these questions but if you don't ask, you don't learn.

Me too @ohyoubadbadkitten

noone is thick for asking questions !
This is new territory for us and the country
(never before has a party got the country in such an unnecessary deep hole)

The PM will inform the Queen if he thinks he has a majority
then he goes to the HoC to prove it

The FTPA refers to a "Confidence Vote" which he would need to win to be PM

If JC loses an NC vote, then the PM has a majority, for the moment

Also the Field video causing disgust

What alarms me more is the number of people who think the video isn’t that bad. Or as one of my friends put it “it’s not like he smacked her around”
I can guarantee if anyone tried this on with her daughter she would be livid - police would be called and charges made.

Ever more reasons for the EU to be pissed at the UK:

Jennifer Rankin@JenniferMerode

Problems that denied EU citizens the vote ‘were evident five years ago’.

Brussels has written to gov asking for explanations.
Highlights of leaked letter

#DeniedMyVote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/european-election-voting-problems-were-evident-five-years-ago?

Isn't there a limit about the number of times a confidence vote can be held in a session? Or is that just in the Tory party?

But keeping on saying that the WA is the only way forward is not helpful.

Totally agree - I’ve had this discussion with leclerc several times.

Usually, persistent rule-breaking governments are taken to the European court of justice. The looming Brexit deadline makes any legal action politically charged for the commission.

They can still do this even if we crash out though. I am with DGR on this topic though; what is the point if people themselves get no compensation? IMO democracy is ebbing away, something for UN to watch closely and demand action. The irony is the Tories say JC would do this or rather "turn us into a communist state", while they do it by stealth under our noses!

The point is not letting the govt get away with it,
deterrence for the next time they consider breaking legally binding requirements

Similarr logic: Prosecuting criminals is done even when the crime is non-violent and the victims receive no compensation
Otherwise, crime woud rise much faster

From the Guardian.
{But Tusk said that during a 12-minute discussion on the latest Brexit developments at a Brussels summit, the EU leaders were united in rejecting any further talks on the withdrawal agreement containing the contentious Irish backstop.
“We emphasised again that from our point of view the exit agreement has been finalised in negotiations but we will get back to this after the election of a new prime minister,” the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, later told reporters.}

{Yes Leclerc - we get that.
But keeping on saying that the WA is the only way forward is not helpful. }
On the contrary, it has to be repeated constantly until the UK gets it into it's thick head that this is reality. There is no 'well maybe if,,,,,,' and then a string of fantasy statements.
Your number 2 option, 2. Refuse the WA and go for no deal is only a very temporary state, a matter of weeks at the most if the EU follows the letter of the law, which it is entitled to do, as no trade with the UK will cause massive problems. The EU has an 'emergency plan' in place for this scenario with the full emphasis on minimising the shock to EU industry NOT the UK.

On the basis that the UK is not going to revoke, any suggestion that the WA can be avoided is very unhelpful, in the same way that if your pet is flattened by a truck, you can wish all you like but it is dead, it won't change fact.

What chance do you think for Revoke - 5, 10 % ?

Then the Uk No Deals, no transition, but still sucks up the main terms of the WA anyway, before the EU will start talks on trade or mitigating minideals

I'm resigned to that as the most likely outcome

Bearbehind

I am following the words of Mr Tusk and Mr Junker, don't bother arguing with me, but with the leaders of the 450 Million Europeans that say it will be so. I realise you are just being argumentative and trying to slip a cigarette paper between THE WA and 'A' WA, but at this stage that subtlety is not justified. The fact the EU has closed the negotiating team down strongly suggests there will be no movement by the EU.