Westminstenders: Brace Yourself It's Gonna BeBoris

[RedToothBrush]

It seems inconceivable that Hunt can beat Johnson. And whilst we are all considering the horrors that Prime Johnson can bring...

Let's not forget Brexit, whats Brexit?

Already there is talk that Boris has gone soft on 31st Oct as an absolute. But he's also promised the earth to the ERG.

So what suits Boris best?

What does his ego demand?

What does Boris want his legacy to be?

Our fate rests on Boris's whims and personal desires.

And if you are Scottish, Muslim or otherwise not rich, white and male you might have reason to be concerned.

Three young Tories on BBC, the young woman says "Boris is the best person to keep Corbyn out and that Britain will excel on the world stage post brexit"

There really is no hope, none at all.

Mays WA is/was terrible and i'm glad its (hopefully) dead, the ERG would have been steering the transition period negotiations and UK would have either ended up with nothing or an extremely loose trading relationship.

Oops, I’m obviously limited in my BBC programme consumption!

The BBC stuff I have seen at Conservative Associations shows a range of views and no particular fanaticism for Boris. Quite the reverse which I was surprised to see.

The polls of Tory members show disturbing fanaticism:

willing to destroy the UK or their party, to achieve Brexit - and mainly a No Deal Brexit at that

Recalled MP Chris Davies (Brecon and Radnorshire) has the support of his Tory comstituency party to stand again.

He says he’s had phone calls today from both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt who’ve backed him.

BUT nearly 20% of his constituents voted to recall him !
Were they all non-Tories ?

The party apparently can't select a new candidate at such short notice and can't / won't parachute in an approved candidate from central office.

In future, maybe they should start selecting a reserve as soon as their MP has been convicted, as it's quite likely they'll get recalled.

Anyway, bookies have LDems currently with best odds to win, with Faragists next best

Tim Shipman @shippersunbound
Dominic Grieve effectively saying Tory MPs will prevent Boris Johnson commanding a majority in the Commons and that the Queen will have to call on someone else

No idea of exact context to this... But it looks significant.

General Election if Johnson wins by the sound of this.

Every seat counts.

jasjas1973 (and others).

The WA is NOT dead.
It describes the conditions that will exist between the UK and the EU when the UK leaves. The UK doesn't like it because there is no cake. The EU don't like it because some of it is getting too close to being cake but the EU negotiating team (Mr Barnier and others) have twisted the arms of some of the individual countries so that what is presented to the UK is not as 'extreme' as a true third country would experience, presumably on the basis that it is a 'citizens' arrangement as much as a 'trade' arrangement. The EU understand that there has to be an ongoing relationship between the UK and the EU which prevents them simply saying 'sod off' to the UK, which with the continuing stupidity in the UK is probably how many in the EU now feel. The UK is rapidly making itself less important to the EU who have other more pressing and interesting things to get on with.

If Boris cannot command a majority in the House, he can't be PM. It's as simple as that. The Queen asks him "can you command a majority in the House", if the answer is no then she expects someone else to come forward and say they can (if they can) or - and she would hate to do this - she asks another MP rather than waits for someone to come forward.

If Boris cannot command a majority in the House, he can't be PM. It's as simple as that

How long does it take to organise a GE?

If someone else can command a majority with this current house - even a cobbled together one - no need for a GE until the fixed term ends or no one can command a majority.

Six weeks....

So we are probably looking at a GE in er.... Ok we might get one before 31st Oct... or we might not.

(Assuming that the leadership finishes at end July, then Boris tries to get a majority but can't so parliament may or may not go into recess due to said crisis, Boris also can't take any other executive action as he's only Tory leader not PM - thats still May until there is a resolution, when parliament returns in Sept, the PM HAS to have a Queen's speech vote - but this is still May not Johnson and that provokes a crisis in its own right which triggers a GE, from there we are a hair's breathe from 31st Oct, but remember until the result of the GE in this scenario it is May NOT Johnson who has the power of asking for an extension)

Merkel:

"We made it very clear we wish to cooperate with the newly elected [British] prime minister.
We will enter into talks,

but we underline yet again, that the Withdrawal Agreement has been negotiated."

Someone once said that 'a camel is a horse designed by a committee'.

What the hell is the UK playing at if it can't even decide on a leader?

If someone else can command a majority with this current house - even a cobbled together one - no need for a GE until the fixed term ends or no one can command a majority.

That relies on a number of Tory MPs resigning the whip AND Labour taking a line which is People's Vote with Remain on the ballot AND not losing their own MPs - because the LD and the SNP have no incentive NOT to have a GE atm with the current polls and they absoluetely do not want a soft exit like Labour are still saying.

I can not see a cobbled together coalition being realistic under Corbyn on current evidence.

“The BBC stuff I have seen at Conservative Associations shows a range of views and no particular fanaticism for Boris. Quite the reverse which I was surprised to see.“

I’m not at all surprised. The Conservative members I know are quietly appalled by him and his antics.

Do you really think the Conservative members will vote in a philandering oaf who proposes to move the mistress he violently rows with into no. 10?
They have an alternative who has carefully preserved his family man Counties image.

I still think Johnson is a hedge. He’s there to take attention away from another candidate - now revealed.

Both are heavily funded by the same source. Both are endorsed by Trump.
It was obviously not Gove the minute Trump claimed he didn’t know him.

Ah, good point red

May has said she'll stay PM until BJ can command a majority in the HoC
She would hence retain the power to ask for an extension in that case (or to Revoke)

That's really just the constitutional position of the old PM remaining as caretaker, even if they lose an NC vote or GE, until the new PM notifies HMQ that they have a majority

If Johnson is voted in as leader of the Tories isn't he automatically PM?

While the Uk Tory party is digging into its navel, grim words at the EUCO:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-delay-extension-second-referendum-general-election-a8967696.html

EU leaders have “lost patience” with Britain and do not want to grant another Brexit extension when time runs out in October, Ireland’s prime minister [ffs, Taoiseach !!] has said.
......
"There’s very much a strong view across the European Union that there shouldn’t be any more extensions.

While I have endless patience, some of my colleagues, quite frankly, have lost patience with the UK
– and there’s enormous hostility to any further extension,”

“So I think an extension could really only happen if it were to facilitate something like a general election in the UK,

or even something like a second referendum,^ if they decided to have one.

What won’t be entertained is an extension for further negotiations or further indicative votes.

The time for that has long since passed"

what if he can't command a majority?

JC in 3rd place...ha yeh yeh

kitten No, to be PM, the new leader has to commnd a majority in th HoC

Currently, the Tories - with the 10 DUP MPs - have a majority of only 3
However, it's possible some Tory MPs will not support BJ as PM

JC will call an NC motion a soon as the new leader returns to the HoC

If Johnson is voted in as leader of the Tories isn't he automatically PM?

NOPE.

He has to be formally appointed by the Queen.

The office is not established by any statute or constitutional document but exists only by long-established convention, which stipulates that the monarch must appoint as Prime Minister the person most likely to command the confidence of the House of Commons; this individual is typically the leader of the political party or coalition of parties that holds the largest number of seats in that chamber.

If there are resignations from the whip or defections BEFORE this date, then it throws up a major question.

Could Johnson form a minority government? In theory I think this is possible, but it would be more or less an immediate constitutional crisis and a GE would happen very soon after.

Sorry, why do we think Boris wouldn't command a majority?

mother Many in the UK - hard Brexiters or hard Remainers - state the WA is dead

The EU say there is nothing else

and that after No Deal we'll still have to agree to the main 3 terms before they'll hold any talks on trade,
or even urgent (for the UK) minideals