Westminstenders: Johnson v Stewart

[RedToothBrush]

Debate time.

From the Ivan Rogers piece linked by BCF. A very interesting and sobering read from someone who has 'read the rules'.

{In circumstances where you leave the EU without a deal, there simply IS no interim agreement. That is the whole point. The EU is entirely within its WTO rights to say that it will treat us as a bog standard third country, without any preferential arrangements, the day after we leave. And if we refuse to sign a Withdrawal Agreement, there IS no interim deal. The superceding legal arrangements will, as I say, simply be legislated at 27.And tariffs will, automatically, be reapplied in the absence of an agreement. Again, we hear endlessly now the canard that if we lifted all our tariffs to the EU and others, the EU would be being vindictive and punitive if it failed to reciprocate.}

My gut feeling is that the UK won't be making many friends if it acts "legally" but in bad faith regarding an international treaty. It's a little too close to the first step on becoming a rogue state.

For this we still need to be a strong power, which we are not - the War and Suez killed that off. Or we need to have strong friends, which for all our bleating about the Special relationship, will mean absolutely nothing when it comes down to it. Besides which, the US has the strong Irish Lobby, which was influential in negotiating the GFA.

I can't see any way out of the impasse - except Brexit getting put off and put off until it becomes a dead issue, or unless something completely out of the blue happens.

There were rumours that Johnson was kindly bequeathing his votes to Hunt yesterday. But didn't really seem to materialise @Belindabelle. Although just saying you can do that makes you look super confident

For this we still need to be a strong power, which we are not - the War and Suez killed that off. Or we need to have strong friends, which for all our bleating about the Special relationship, will mean absolutely nothing when it comes down to it.

There can only be one Israel. Israel will see to that

Besides which, the US has the strong Irish Lobby, which was influential in negotiating the GFA.

I'm fascinated by all the dogs not barking in the night of the UK. I'm guessing it's a reflection that while we inside the UK are fascinated with our own red white and blue navel fluff, until it gets knitted into a nice scarf, the rest of the world has bigger fish to fry ?

Once the UK finally decides on something - anything - and there's something concrete to react to, could be a further shock to the Leaver camp.

I'm vaguely reminded of how the US sold Cuba down the river with the Bay of Pigs. Or indeed the UK down the canal over Suez. (Although Suez was different in that the US had explicitly advised it wouldn't support us, and merely carried through with that statement).

Just catching up with the thread on the debate and found it interesting the Leavers on here are now suddenly questioning "what is going to happen after Brexit". Bit late to that party, are they not?
If they really gave a shit they should surely have asked that before voting for the Mystery Box.
The only one who comes close to disclosing any type of plan is Rory, purely because he acknowledges it will be difficult, unlike the others who still expect the public to believe No Deal is 'the will of the people'.

Once the UK finally decides on something - anything - and there's something concrete to react to, could be a further shock to the Leaver camp.
Which is why Boris is getting the hard sell by the Tories. The whole debacle of putting this on public show when we don't get a say screams headlines of Boris' Brexit Blunder; someone BXP and Leavers can blame when their choice comes home to roost.

Oh and what is in the rumour Stewart it making a pact with Gove to combine votes (Captain Planet stylee)? I was wondering if he trusts Gove to be anti-Boris due to previous back stabbing events and how little public support there will ever be for Hunt after Health.

My local mp is backing gove.

"I hope this finds you well, and I thank you for contacting me around the ongoing Conservative Party leadership election.

During this process, I have spoken to all candidates to discuss their policies and priorities ahead of making a decision on our future Party Leader, and Prime Minister. There are many areas of importance, which I have outlined publicly, including the smooth and timely delivery of Brexit, the Union and our future immigration policy to name a few.

Following these discussions, I have taken the decision to support the Rt Hon Michael Gove MP in this leadership election. Mr Gove is not only a staunch unionist, but he is someone who, has extensive experience within government, including Secretary of State for both Education and the Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and the ability to bring our divided country together. As a key Leave campaigner in the 2016 EU referendum, he has always been passionate about the opportunities that departing the European Union deliver and, importantly for our fishing communities, has been clear in his opposition to the Common Fisheries Policy which has been so damaging to this industry.

Throughout his time in government he has demonstrated he has the competence and commitment required to not only carry out Brexit, but to lead the UK to a bright future. He stands ready to lead, and this is why I will be supporting him throughout this process.

Once again, I thank you for taking the time to contact me with your thoughts on this matter - I hope the above is helpful in both outlining and justifying my position on this matter. If there is anything else I can assist with, please do not hesitate to contact me directly"

Mr Gove is not only a staunch unionist

People can change their minds. As a Gove PM will faster than you can say "Brexit" ...

Meanwhile 26 Labour MPs have signed a letter to Jeremy Corbyb opposing a second referendum and saying at commitment to one would be “toxic to our bedrock Labour voters”.

Are these the same 20 odd MPs who voted with the government last week?

Selective Unionism? One that writes anti GFA pamphlets but is a bit scared of the realistic prospect of Scotland demanding independence after Brexit?

Mother Hunt also thinks he did a good job as Health Sec.
The public, who have suffered the impacts, know better. Just another example of how out of touch the Tories are really.

I'm assuming Stewart is going with Gove as he's the only one of the top three that has ruled out no deal isn't he?

I know it has been highlighted 100 times on these threads but here's yet another reminder of the danger of no deal with respect to meds:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/vital-medicine-supplies-risk-no-deal-brexit-mps-warned-pharmaceutical-industry

I hold those idiots who support no deal personally responsible for any deaths that may occur as a result.

Red Those figures on changing support in different areas are interesting- is there anywhere that the data is further drilled down into different constituencies? In my very Brexity area at the Euros the Brexit Party won more votes than all the other parties combined. We're now represented by the sister of JRM, oh joy. The local MP - v right wing Tory - came out in support of Gove and got a hammering in the local paper for not supporting Boris. (Most of the letters ended with the sender declaring support for Farage of course)

Does anyone understand Corbyns new position on Brexit? I half heard it on the radio (kids chatting in background).

It doesn’t sound impressive but maybe I’ve missed something

Does anyone understand Corbyns new position on Brexit?

Is there one ?

Corbyns position is actually quite clear. He wants a GE - nothing else matters. Everything he has done, and will do is with the sole aim of securing a GE through a NC vote in the HoC. His current stance on a PV has been calculated to weakly attract some Tories that might be swayed to help him get his GE.

It should be clear by now that Brexit is a bit of a nuisance for Corbyn. It stopped him sweeping to power in 2017, and is still threatening his socialist utopian dream.

Is that a fair assessment ? Can I get £5,000 from a national newspaper now ?

.

Have I missed people commenting on Farage saying he'll enter into a deal with Boris Johnson to call a GE and ensure No Deal?
Would it be possible for anyone to defeat that? I'm guessing not?

Have I missed people commenting on Farage saying he'll enter into a deal with Boris Johnson to call a GE and ensure No Deal?

Er, with what ? Farage is an MEP and has no standing in the UK parliament.

Who does he think he is ? Hitler ?

One that writes anti GFA pamphlets

From the little I could bear to watch of last night's debate - he started backpedalling frantically. I didn't agree with Blair, I seem to recall him saying - not that he was totally opposed and it will be tough luck if violence breaks out again, which is what I believe he really thinks.

How would Farage be able to force it?

It needs Corbyn to collude with Johnson to overturn the FTPA - although sadly, I think he is so obsessed with another GE which he assumes that he would win and usher in his glorious socialist Utopia outside the EU that he would indeed collude

Gove 51
Hunt 54
Javid 38
Johnson 143
Stewart 27