Text of Ivan Richards speech. analysis of No Deal & after
www.eureferendum.com/documents/ivan%20speech%20final.pdf
I now think a “no deal” outcome the probability, for reasons I shall explain.
But I have thought it a serious risk since autumn 2016,
and been saying to private sector and university audiences since then
that I thought the risk was vastly underpriced by the markets, most companies and the media.
Why?
Because the previous Prime Minister kicked off the negotiation process with 2 speeches
- at the 2016 Party Conference and at Lancaster House in January 2017,
which I think frankly were
2 of the most ill-advised speeches given by a British Prime Minister since the War.
Those speeches revealed a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of our post Brexit options.
And of the scale, length and complexity of the disentanglement process which Brexit entails.
That misunderstanding perpetuates itself even now in the surreal debates we see unfolding 3 years after the referendum.
......
The “belief” theory of negotiations
– if we just have enough true belief, confidence in our greatness and chutzpah, we shall achieve all we want –
always reminds me of some of the more ill-fated underachieving England World Cup campaigns of past decades.
The pre tournament “this time the Cup is coming home” media spree is this year’s Tory Party Conference coverage
...
As the former Prime Minister gradually came to understand that these speeches had locked her into a position both wholly unsustainable and undesirable from the UK economic viewpoint,
every baby step she then took to nuance her position, in particular to address UK manufacturers’ concerns, and prevent the decimation of key industries,
was met with howls of outrage from her Right as the betrayal of the “only true path” Brexit.
Which, it turned out, was a hard “no deal” Brexit
which had not been the prospectus sold to the public in the referendum campaign.
......
The reality was that she was, until far too late, utterly determined to put Party before national interest,
and seek to win solely on Tory and DUP votes.
She was counting on a loyalty which she might perhaps have had some right to expect,
but was never in danger of getting.
....
They want a complete rupture with the EU. Most always did, actually.
But they were savvy enough to recognise that you would not get 52% of the public to vote that prospectus in 2016.
.....
But I look at the current Tory leadership election, and frankly it brings to mind more Talleyrand’s great quote about the Bourbons having “learned nothing and forgotten nothing”.
We hear all manner of undeliverable promises, made as if the events of the last 3 years have made no impact on the collective consciousness.
I also look across the Channel and see a Continental elite which is bored with Brexit,
frustrated and baffled by London, increasingly reconciled to the likely failure of the process,
and prepared to move on to what they regard as more important issues in the next 5 years
....
unless the UK seeks an extension, there is no decision for the 27 to take. “No deal” is then automatic.
...
If, contrary to what is being said in order to garner votes now, and in line with most EU expectations,
he seeks an extension at the October European Council
– recognising, as is completely obvious already, incidentally, that no new deal could under any conceivable circumstances, be negotiated and passed in the House by October 31 –
the 27 would, I suspect, be prepared to extend.
But only on the basis that a Withdrawal Agreement containing the backstop was not reopened.
And that revisions to the Political Declaration and any texts elaborating on the process by which one might obviate the need for a backstop ever to come into force,
or the steps by which it might be “phased out” after it had come into force,
were the maximum on offer.
In other words, not a time limit, nor a unilateral exit mechanism,
but some further explication of what is already in the Withdrawal Agreement
and some warm words about the process
to try and arrive an an alternative to the backstop over the next several years.
...
The assumption that a General Election is therefore coming really rather soon
– and much sooner than anyone is prepared or incentivised to admit -
is now as widespread in other capitals as it is with the bookies here.