Patrick Henegen @pjhenegen
Support for Leave falling the most in the North West and North East - from Nov last year
REPORT
You might wonder whether these estimates are robust. Do they change much if we change some of the assumptions?
If we ignore questions of turnout, and assume that everyone votes in a fresh referendum, then the figures don’t change much. We go from 45.6 percent to 45.9 percent - a tiny difference.
What about our confidence in the estimates for each place – can we summarize these estimates in a single figure, or do we need a range of figures?
If we’d conducted a standard poll in each area, then the margin of error for each local authority would be plus or minus three percent. But because we haven’t conducted 380 thousand interviews, we have to settle for something less – plus or minus five percent in each case.
That means that although we know a lot of areas have switched, we can only be really very confident about a much smaller group. Here are the areas most likely to have switched:
• Nottingham (40.1% Leave now but was 50.8% Leave then).
• Luton (43.8% Leave now but was 56.5% Leave then).
• Slough (41.6% Leave now but was 54.3% Leave then).
• Southampton (41.8% Leave now but was 53.8% Leave then).
• High Peak (44.3% Leave now but was 50.5% Leave then).
• Watford (43.6% Leave now but was 50.3% Leave then).
• Canterbury (44.6% Leave now but was 51% Leave then).
• Cherwell (44.5% Leave now but was 50.3% Leave then).
• Reigate and Banstead (44.9% Leave now but was 50.5% Leave then).
• Knowsley (39.7% Leave now but was 51.6% Leave then).
• North Tyneside (45.5% Leave now but was 53.4% Leave then).
• Birmingham (41.8% Leave now but was 50.4% Leave then).
• Sutton (44.9% Leave now but was 53.7% Leave then).
• Isle of Anglesey (44.2% Leave now but was 50.9% Leave then).
• Swansea (43.2% Leave now but was 51.5% Leave then).
• Rhondda Cynon Taf (43.5% Leave now but was 53.7% Leave then).
As well as asking how people would vote in a fresh referendum, we also asked how people would view particular proposals, and how they would vote on an eventual deal.
Here were the particular proposals we asked, together with the overall support (not including those that said don’t know)
• new checks being introduced on goods crossing the Irish sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK (41%)
• UK and EU citizens who wished to do so being able to live and work in each other’s countries (76%)
• Limitations on the UK’s ability to make trade deals with countries outside the EU (25%)
• Following EU regulations on manufactured goods such as fridges, vacuum cleaners and light bulbs (62%)
• Support for the deal as it stands (43%)