Westminstenders: Johnson v Stewart

[RedToothBrush]

Debate time.

No - a close referendum won't heal the divide. There are some people - on both sides - for whom the divide is never going to be healed, even if the final result was 70% - 30%. That isn't the purpose of the referendum! The purpose is it tells us which one of two reasonably sensible options to take - we take the most popular and then we move forward. It would then - from a place of more stable footing - be the job of the government (whoever would be in power at the time) to find a way to start healing those divisions. And the best way to do that would be increased public spending on health and education and transport, a decent living wage and affordable housing. None of which comes back to the EU.

I agree with all of this (except the bit about leaving with a deal being reasonably sensible). The root causes of this mess need to be addressed, whatever happens. But is that likely if the swivel-eyed lunatic fringe wins and we Brexit? Without the EU to safeguard workers’ rights and conditions, we’ll be completely at their mercy

YouGov on last nights debate.

Interesting to see the splits.

I agree with ICantReachthePretzels. Leaving with no deal is pointless as the EU will just force us to sign up to the deal conditions before making a trade agreement. They have come out and said this already.

Many of the 'downsides' to leaving haven't been explored and put into a possible 'timeline'.
A proper analysis needs to be made of what can actually happen and when. For a 'crash out' things like tariffs and problems with deliveries become critical practically immediately and getting legislation which could mess up workers rights rammed through probably won't happen for a long time unless emergency powers were sought to 'bypass' the HoC and 'due process'.
If the WA gets signed and a transition period is granted, then there would be a couple more years at least before some aspects become critical.
Revoke would mean that rights and laws would remain so it is 'only' the massive waste of money and the departure of EU based or influenced companies that would cause a financial problem. Whether the UK gov actually attempts to 'fix' the root causes of Brexit is a different matter.
We need a spreadsheet of the possible outcomes from each of the 3 scenarios.

chiara you know that I know that my dog knows that unfortunately the stubborn sods responsible will not believe this until they have had one last crack at The EU as illustrated by IDS on Newsnight last night.

The only 'advantage' of a 'No deal' is if the UK jumps wholeheartedly into bed with the USA and accepts all the deals and crap that would come from it. It would be putting two fingers up to the EU and the resultant trade discussions would be very interesting.

pretzels The HoC would decide PV options from 2 or 3 of the available ones:
WA / No Deal / No Brexit

For a PV to break the deadlock, it would probably need to be agreed by the HoC & the govt in advance that the result would be binding and automatically carried out
i.e. No further votes required, no GE until afterwards

The govt would afterwards be responsible for carrying out the result and getting any legislation through

No Deal is clear:
it is the option of greatest national harm
However, it is by far the most popular among Leavers;
the HoC / govt may not agree to omit it

ND Leavers' post-Brexit plan is to continue refusing the backstop in the belief that Ireland / the EU will eventually cave in
They refuse to believe all statements this won't happen, so we would actually have to go through and have it proven

Before the PV, we could try to agree with the EU that No Deal would bring an automatic A50 extension of say 2 years, not for negotiating any deals - that won't happen with ND - but just for both sides to complete prepping
They might, or might not agree.

In the end though, how the nation survives No Deal without the economy crashing and people suffering greatly is the govt's responsibility

Thoroughly unsatisfactory.

Can the BBC sound engineers just turn the mics off when they all talk over each other, or at least have proper debate rules like exist in debating clubs. I used to judge 6th Form Debate Competitions, and the rules were sacrosanct. This shower would have been disqualied.

Maitliss wasn't up to the job at all. I'm wondering if all concerned are hoping that the TV debate idea will be lost in the Long Grass if it's done badly enough.

Thanks Red, very interesting stuff. Rory Stewart the clear winner then, for those who didn't vote Conservative last time!

Those "unweighted sample" figures greyed out are what jump out to me, on a close inspection.

There is what is politically possible and there is what is sensible
.... and a vast gulf between them

As soon as Cameron irresponsibly promised a referendum, Sensible left the building and has never returned

We need a spreadsheet of the possible outcomes from each of the 3 scenarios.

For who ? The people who already know this stuff, or the people who will never believe it ?

At this stage, Leavers are like the abusive spouse who we think "means it this time". They have absolutely no intention of changing their mind - and attempts to do so will simply reinforce their "rightness".

The only chink in the system is the fact that we know Leavers are also totally unwilling to own their win. So it seems the path to tread is to slowly back away from Brexit to the cat calls of Leavers, using their absolute refusal to take responsibility for the consequences of Leave as the kryptonite to do so.

You'll never pull a Leaver towards Remain. But you can make Leave - and the prospects of their having to own it - the mechanism to avoid it.

I wonder why men like Stewart so much more than women? Perhaps men are less repulsed by the extreme manspreading!

It really is time that Lexiters accepted the ovwewhelming Remain sentiment within their own party and voters
They need to drop the fantasy of wc Lexiters being anywhere near this level

John Mann on BBC Newsnight:
“Most Labour Party members are middle-class Remainers.
Most Labour voters are working-class Leavers.”
< BOLLOCKS >

LIE / Delusion

only 15% of 2017 Labour voters are working class Leavers

46% of Labour voters are middle class Remainers plus another 20% are working class Remainers

2017 GE Labour voters in the ref were 66% Remainer and only 28% Leave
(7% didn't vote in the referendum)

I wonder why men like Stewart so much more than women?

Or the roughie-toughie edge-of-danger backstory about knife juggling in the middle east ?

One possible counter to the argument that a PV is just asking people again to get the right answer: have a referendum with the same wording as last time, but only for people who were denied a vote in 2016, either through age or postal vote ineptitude.
Add those numbers to the 2016 vote and nobody will have been asked twice.

Ian Blackford has called Johnstone a racist during PMQ and Bercow has let it go!

Racists really object to being called racist.

have a referendum with the same wording as last time, but only for people who were denied a vote in 2016, either through age or postal vote ineptitude

The perfect solution!

Should also include those previously denied a vote as a result of the Tory party reneging on its express promise to extend ex pats' voting entitlement.

I question the point of a PV.

All the surveys conducted so far don't show any convincing lead for Remain, more that it's switched to 52/48 to Remain.

That wouldn't settle anything at all. I don't think a PV would put us in a better position.

Of course Bercow has let it go! He clearly detests Boris Johnson and has no sense of decorum whatsoever. If Boris does become PM that relationship could get very interesting.

I agree with ICantReachthePretzels. Leaving with no deal is pointless as the EU will just force us to sign up to the deal conditions before making a trade agreement. They have come out and said this already

We all know that no deal is pointless and damaging but a lot of the public don’t.

If there’s a second referendum of May’s WA vs Remain the leaver population will go mad. Equally of there’s a PV of no deal vs WA remainers will go mad.

In the public’s mind it’s no deal vs Remain. Tragically most of the public has no clue how damaging no deal is going to be. They think it’s just - things will be the same but we won’t send loads of money to Europe (we might have a few less foreign people).

That wouldn't settle anything at all. I don't think a PV would put us in a better position

Trouble is I can’t think of anything that would put us in a better position.

Bercow didn't let Boris being called a racist go, not from where I was sitting...

Thanks bcf
Just brought her home.
Off for a nap

Trouble is I can’t think of anything that would put us in a better position.

No, me neither. At this point I feel like there is such a huge divide in the values of each side, not just on Brexit but a number of critical topics about how we run the nation and who we are as a country that I would quite possibly vote in favour of dividing the country in two

In terms of racist language coming back...I visited my parents the other day and my Tory/UKIP middle class stepfather deemed it appropriate to resurrect the word 'Paki'.

I know he's a racist bigot as well as homophobic but I was shocked that he somehow thinks it's now okay to say that again. Genuinely shocked.