Here is another article on focus group findings. This time it was published by the Huffington Post.
m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-tory-leadership_uk_5d038fbfe4b0304a120de063?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics&ncid=other_homepage_tiwdkz83gze&utm_campaign=mw_entry_recirc
How Our Focus Groups Suggest Fresh-Faced Sajid And Rory Could Be A Threat To Boris
While Tory voters we spoke with had concerns about Johnson's competence, Stewart was judged as honest and Javid grounded – raising the question of how fragile Tory trust really is in Boris.
Across two focus groups – both with former Tory voters, one set Remain, the other Leave – it wasn’t hard to get people talking about Boris Johnson, Rory Stewart or Sajid Javid. All are candidates with something about them; a personality, a backstory, a sense of being a bit different. Their identities speak of change and a disruption in the political system.
The candidates who had none of that were rejected out of hand: Michael Gove was tarred by his record of perceived ‘treachery’ – against Boris for the Leavers, teachers for the Remainers – while Jeremy Hunt came across as a politician from central casting. His lily-livered commitment to leave the EU with no deal but a ‘heavy heart’ pleased no one. “Either you believe in something, and then do it, or you don’t,” said one participant
Hunt’s manicured preciseness contrasted with the authenticity of the more successful candidates. The biggest gasp of the night came watching a video of Richard Madeley accusing Rory of saying something ‘weird’. Rory didn’t deflect or defend. He agreed. The question was a set-up they had seen in a thousand political interviews, but this was something new: a politician who accepted error.
The two interesting part of this is the reflection on the difference between leave and remain former tories.
For leave, Johnson is the only choice because he understands leave means leave. They view his burqa comments as not very offensive and demonstrating he isn't afraid to say what he thinks. However he has an achilles heel and it's really telling:
Boris’ biggest vulnerability was not on liberalism but on competence
And this seems to have been a real concern.
On the other side for former tory Remainers is this reflection:
These Remain voters were not second referendum supporters – most felt that a vote to leave created a need to leave. The job of government was to do that sensibly, and both candidates offered that.
Re Javid and Stewart.
It also stresses the number of remain v leave voters though and this
While many on the left find Boris’ identity politics and casual approach disqualifying, this was not true for either group of Tory target voters. He was someone Leave voters liked and Remain voters would give latitude to, particularly if he can lead as the character from his campaign video rather than the berk in a Union Jack waistcoat dangling from a zipline (another anecdote some participants recalled).
But the big take was that trust in Boris is fragile across the board. His perceived competence (or lack of) is an even bigger deal than is being framed by the media.
Boris therefore had no choice but to do a TV debate, even though there are clear worries about it. And Stewart being perceived as particularly honest is a real problem in contrast.
Ashcroft focus group wasn't too dissimilar but was more favourable to Hunt. Gove and Raab are dead ducks, with no popular appeal. Hard to argue that their campaigns aren't in trouble.
Javid, Johnson and Stewart ticked boxes in both though.
That's likely to influence the next round especially if Javid and Stewart do particularly well on Sunday and outshine the other three.