Westminstenders: Tory Natural Selection

[RedToothBrush]

Here we go again...

My worry, about thinking good things about Rory, is simply that I remember when I was desperate for TM to win the leadership election - and very pleased when she got it. Look how that turned out.

A tory is always a tory, in the end.

I think my MP is the one that introduced Rory Stewart for his leadership bid today

To be fair, no one realised what a disaster TM would turn out to be. I suppose we should have known about her xenophobia, but much else really seemed out of character. She seemed a safe pair of hands.

Rory was a member of the Labour Party whilst at Eton, may be that's why he's coming across more likeable than other options?

I can't see Rory getting it this time - he's not batshit crazy enough. I can see him getting it when Johnson/Raab/Hunt/whoever has all but destroyed the party and he rebuilds it.

Boris Johnson on course for 140-seat majority at general election if he becomes Tory leader, poll shows

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-course-140-seat-majority-general-election-becomes/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Paywalled

@JohnRentoul
Standard voting intention is:
Labour 27%
Conservatives 23%
Brexit Party 22%
Lib Dem 17%
But Cons take big lead if Boris Johnson is leader

My MP has come out as backing Boris Johnson, which was an unpleasant surprise. While I can't imagine ever voting Tory, our MP isn't a total Brexit loon (was Remain in 2016, & voted for the WA each time) and works hard locally. I just thought he'd support someone with a bit of personal integrity and feel really disappointed in him.

People are stupid. That is all there is to say about that.

I can't see Rory getting it this time

I agree Tory party members are going to go for Boris.
Even if Boris soiled himself mid speech he’d probably still win.

Why can’t we have a decent opposition to shine a light on just how shit the potential Tory party leaders are.

Bloody hell, what polling is that? Is it based on the idea that Johnson would hoover up all the Brexit party votes? Ugh. It doesn't seem like there's any good news at the moment.

Depending on how horrendously things pan out over the next few weeks, we could be thinking TM wasn't quite so bad after all, and was a woman more sinned against than sinning.

Buffoon Boris or Rabid Raab in charge doesn't bear thinking about.

Why can’t we have a decent opposition to shine a light on just how shit the potential Tory party leaders are.

Yes! I can't remember when I even last heard Corbyn speak. Why the hell aren't they all shouting about the appalling state of these candidates, pointing out that their brexit policies are fantasies and that their other promises are all stuff that they could have done some time in the last 9 years? Like Leadsom saying she'd open more Sure Start Centres. It's this government that caused most of them to close!

Rory Stewart and Jean Claude Juncker seem to have been left with the job of alerting people to the fact that they're all spouting pie in the sky about brexit / renegotiating the WA etc.

@JohnRentoul
You know what I was saying about Johnson going for an early election on a “no-deal exit if necessary” platform?

Voting intention “if Boris Johnson were Tory leader”:
Conservatives 37%
Labour 22%
Lib Dem 20%
Brexit Party 14%

'Years and Years' seems remarkably prescient. Shakespeare would have liked Russel T Davies at least.

Didn't the polls give TM a huge majority for 2017 though? These things can be very wrong indeed!

Mmmm those polls were done for The Telegraph which supports Boris Johnson, I'm taking them with a large pinch of salt.

There's a good clip from an episode of 'Yes Minister' on YouTube where they are discussing opinion polls. Just type 'Yes Minister Opinion Polls' in the search, it's worth a look

Thanks for the image of Boris soiling himself @ThereWillBeAdequateFood

Have we seen the news.. In partnership with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the Green Party, Labour will "use an opposition day debate to push forward the vote to give MPs control of the House of Commons agenda on June 25 and prevent a "reckless" Conservative prime minister taking the UK out of the EU without a deal....

Apart from showing strength of feeling and virtue-signalling, I can’t see what power such a motion would have practically to prevent a no-deal. If the EU and the Government neither conclude a deal nor agree to an extension then we’re out on 31 October.

The only way I could see it working is if an Act of Parliament was passed which required the Government to revoke Article 50 in the event of no agreement or no extension having been agreed by, say, 30th October. Now that would be dynamite!

I think Mark Francois just summed things up.

"We are leaving on 31st October come hell or high water otherwise the Tory party are finished"

As long as the Tory party are ok, hell and high water can flood the country.

Mmmm those polls were done for The Telegraph which supports Boris Johnson, I'm taking them with a large pinch of salt.

Polls have a natural variability but I have to say that looks truly out of kilter with other polls.... 51%+ effectively supporting no-deal!? We’ll see...

Also, I’m struggling to see the poll in any way ties in with the following analysis published a couple of days ago....

“But according to Lord Hayward's analysis of recent opinion polls, a staggering 23% of people who voted Tory in 2017 - around 3 million voters - think he would be a "very bad" Prime Minister, making it highly unlikely they would support the party next time round.”

And a recent Ipsos-Mori poll showed his favourability ratings were 25:66.... 41% negative!

Hmmm, trying to remember which paper the trumpette writes for?

Has this article been posted?

www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/sunday/brexit-ireland-empire.html

I haven't seen any other polls asking about voting intentions if Boris is leader
So we've nothing to compare with

It's possible the VI is accurate atm, but he would have to call a GE soon, before voters go off him

He was the only Tory who could have won the London Mayoral elections and so far he has been a vote-winner

That's why so many Tory MPs back him: they think he is their only chance to win a GE
They don't care what happens a year later: they just want to survive 2019