Westministenders: Another Thread, another Shit Show. Its Trump Week

[RedToothBrush]

That is all.

The FT from July 28th 2016:

Ford warns of plant closures to combat $1bn Brexit blow
Finance chief says price of cars in UK will rise to claw back losses from weaker sterling

Ford is considering closing plants in the UK and across Europe in response to Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as it forecast a $1bn hit to its business over the next two years.

www.ft.com/content/5f20ead4-54c5-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

It won't be the only factor, but Brexit certainly playing a part.

the few hundred extra who die
Suspect it will be a few more than that:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report

pretty
Dementia is so, so cruel 💐
I think, watching trump over the past 3 years, that there has been a real deterioration in his speech, sentence structure and vocabulary.
Very worrying.

I don't expect mass hunger even after the worst case No Deal Brexit

There's a reason that heads on spikes looked surprised ...

Bear in mind the staggering incompetence of this government. Would you have any faith that in the event of the slightest disruption to normal service, they could manage to work around it ?

I know I don't.

We're only a few days away from anarchy. Once the shelves are empty then law and order are on a countdown.

I'm not going to apologise for saying that today - of all days - while it's right we honour the fallen dead, we have completely overlooked the real miracle of D-Day which is the planning that went into it. Planning that needed real ships, not pretend contracts with shady companies. Planning that stood up to the changes-by-minute in the course of the day and ensured that men, machines, fuel along with food, drink, medical aid and supplies were where they needed to be when they needed to be.

That's the real risk of no-deal. It's the unknowns. Any one of a thousand seemingly insignificant events could spiral into a crisis before anyone realises.

Here's a question that all Westminstenders can answer.

How long would you go without being able to buy food before you ignored the government ?

Day one ?
Day two ?
Day three ?

The Guardian
@guardian
May will only resign when she is sure her successor has confidence of Commons, No 10 says - live news

So she's leaving in the way James Brown used to 'leave' the stage?

Having seen a once prosperous country like Venezuela collapse, anything is possible with the UK.

May will only resign when she is sure her successor has confidence of Commons, No 10 says

As one or two posters here felt would be the case 2 weeks ago. I wonder if it would be such news now if it had been discussed on "Mansnet" then ?

Ah, the sick mind of Clavinova pointing out that to her great pleasure workers in the EU are being put at risk.
Yes it is not good, but although an 'injury' to the EU the UK is about to suffer something approaching total organ failure unless it gets its arse into gear.
Ford is of course American owned, and it's failings have been noted in Europe for some time, breaking of investment 'promises'. Are you glad to be getting into bed with the USA with an 'America First' view of business.

May doesn't have the confidence of the HoC either

It's just that a new Tory leader would be an irresistable temptation for Corbyn to try another NC vote

Westministenders:

1. What do you think are the chances of a GE being called before 31 October ?

• btw, this is another possible strategy to force No Deal - if Tory Brexiters put Brexit before party -

because if a GE is called after about 27 September, Parliament would be dissolved until after Brexit Day

2. Who do you think would win a GE / form the next government ?

I put the question that way, because I expect a hung Parliament again
It would depend on which 2 or 3 parties - if any - could come to an agreement for at least Confidence & Supply

3. What do you think are the chances of Farage's party replacing the Tories, for the next decade or so?

He has often reported as wishing to destroy the Tory party

• his hatred for them may stem from their refusal years ago to select him as a Tory candidate

4. What do you think are the chances of Corbyn or a similar hard left PM being elected later

• after No Deal has hammered the economy & living standards for a year or so ?

Probably the only circumstances in which people would vote for a genuinely hard left leader / policies

because if a GE is called after about 27 September, Parliament would be dissolved until after Brexit Day

But the one circumstance that could change the 31st October end of extension is ... a general election.

So it's not impossible that while parliament is out of action (and how would we know, by the way ?) the EU could unilaterally extend the transition until (say) 31st December and give the incoming administration the same headache as now.

The UK is not in the driving seat here. It gave that up the second it triggered A50.

What is going on ?

Despite Clarinova's chortles, the US big auto firms are pulling back massively across much of the world and moving away from cars (which are of course what is being cut in the UK / Europe)

Ford are pulling out of Mexico, Japan, Russia ....
GM have already done much of this

and cutting right back in the US - going for SUVs, trucks etc instead of cars

This is a major change in strategy
also a return to gas guzzling larger vehicles, with the success of fracking in the US ?

Ford is basically giving up on US car_ business, and GM is not far behind_

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/26/ford-is-basically-giving-up-on-us-car-business-and-gm-is-not-far-behind.html

So is it really the end of the American car on its home turf?
From the way Detroit’s major executives are talking, it would seem so.
.......
GMM_ is moving along the same lines.
“I think we have been on this path for a number of years,” GM CFO Chuck Stevens said on a call with reporters on Thursday,

Peregrina The problem with exceptionalism is that even if you know that Venezuela was wealthy and stable enough to have taken in the Chilean refugees in the 70's you assume the UK has some magic to protect it in the future.

DG The EU can NOT unilaterally extend
The UK would have to agree - in fact it would have to ask

So calling a GE at the right time CAN force No Deal

It is the PM who would have to ask

I most certainly don't think the UK has some magic to protect it, although the majority of Leavers would appear to do so.

I note May is apparently not now leaving No 10 tomorrow - dithering to the last!

One of Ford's issues is Trump's America first policy. There is significant financial pressure and huge political pressure to focus manufacturing in the US. Which doesn't impact Europe but does affect Mexico plants.
Relying on a trade deal with the USA is highly risky as Mexicans would currently tell you. The latest round of trade tariffs they are being threatened with have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with getting them to do politics the way Trump wants.

May only resigned as leader of the Tories, which is ridiculous and embarassing for the UK

She should have let Liddington take over as PM immediately after her resignation speech

Sorry Peregrina I meant a more general you not you as an individual. I know you personally don't believe in anything so daft!

DG I can imagine new PM Boris / Raab announcing on 2 October at the Tory party conference that the EU have - shock, horror - refused to renegotiate

and hence he is calling a GE to force No Deal through

DG I can imagine new PM Boris / Raab announcing on 2 October at the Tory party conference that the EU have - shock, horror - refused to renegotiate and hence he is calling a GE to force No Deal through

Of course as soon as an election is called, the EU might offer the extension. Leaving a UK PM to explain to the UK why they are headed towards no deal when it's not necessary since the EU offered an extension. Bearing in mind a certain quotient of the public will think the EUs offer is "giving in" and another proportion not really understanding "extension", "transition" and "deal" any more than they do now.

I'm still imagining the new UK PM rocking up at Brussels in July, only to find a sign hanging on the door:

Closed for holidays. Back 1st November

The EU may offer an extension, if a GE has been called, to try to avoid blame for No Deal

However, at that stage, unless they offer to renegotiate - which they won't - the PM would almost certainly refuse

He would not want to face Farage after having delayed Brexit.

No Deal is shocking to us

It is what a sizable minority want atm / think they want
and most of the public would think No Deal will all blow over by Christmas (WW1)

Meanwhile, elsewhere on MN, someone is asking for advice about the niceties of relocating to Europe with her DH and DC without a hint that they might be on the way back in a few months if we do no deal.

DG All E27 have said even if there is No Deal, that those UK expats registered before Brexit Day can stay

• providing they are self supporting and can obtain health insurance

So that's the better off / young & healthy workers
Shame about the rest