TORY LEADERSHIP UPDATE
Well, this is a turn up for the books.
'Mr Details' after seemingly being snubbed by Trump (who hasn't requested to see him) has just tweeted this:
Dominic Raab @DominicRaab
I want to see the UK get fair deals on trade with the US and many other countries when we leave the EU. But the NHS is not for sale to any country and never would be if I was Prime Minister.
So given he WANTS to persue no deal Brexit which obviously involves a trade deal with the US - which we won't get without the NHS being on the table, I'm a little confused.
Also:
Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
Raab in 2013 "We need a more level playing field, in order to expand patient choice. This could be achieved by either paying a premium or granting a tax break to private providers in recognition of the uneven playing field for pension liabilities, corporation tax & VAT purposes".
He sounds almost... worried.
Another development today, after Trump saying he thinks Jeremy Hunt would be a good PM, is that Liam Fox has backed Hunt today.
Dr Liam Fox MP @LiamFox
(1/6) I am announcing today that I will be supporting Jeremy Hunt as the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister.
(2/6) Throughout his career, Jeremy has a track record of achievement and he has impressed me during his time in Cabinet as Culture Secretary, Health Secretary and as an outstanding Foreign Secretary.
(3/6) Jeremy is a successful entrepreneur and instinctively understands the needs of the businesses we all rely on to deliver prosperity.
(4/6) As such, deal-making is part of his DNA - and that is the great challenge before us. We must send a strong message to the EU that we want a deal — but crucially, make clear that we are also willing to walk away without one. @Jeremy_Hunt gets that.
(5/6) As we move forward with delivering Brexit we must unite our party and our country around a wider agenda, address the division in our society and provide sensible, responsible government.
(6/6) Most importantly, we must stop the hard left extremists in the Labour Party from winning power - and I believe @Jeremy_Hunt is best placed to undertake that task. Let’s #UniteToWin.
I also note that he's said this today:
BBC Radio 4 Today @BBCr4today
International Trade Sec @LiamFox says the NHS and food standards will be protected in case of any UK-US trade deal
This does come with a cavat, that he doesn't say HOW he will protect the NHS and apparently he DOES still want American firms to have access to the NHS.
BBC Politics @BBCPolitics
Would the NHS be on the table in any UK-US trade deal post-#Brexit?
"Anything, of course, is technically on the table" says Trade Secretary Liam Fox, but "governments retain the right to regulate public services"
Trump and the US ambassador, have definitely struck a politically toxic nerve. The question seems to be how all you can square the circle of a US trade deal with protecting the NHS. Its rather like squaring the circle of the Good Friday Agreement and a deal with the EU. I suspect it'll be how do you polish a turd to sell to the public and to try and dupe parliament in the process in just the same way May tried. This is definitely an area to keep you eyes very firmly on. Particularly with regard to the detail...
Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Liam Fox endorses “my friend” Jeremy Hunt. Cabinet splitting in different directions, Truss to Boris Johnson, Gauke to Rory Stewart, now Fox to Hunt.
You can all stop making the same fox Hunt joke now
The Numbers So Far
Anyway, Guido Fawkes has a handy spreadsheet of who is backing who in the leadership contest.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0
Guido Spreadsheet.
It is colour coordinated with Leave / Remain MPs which is pretty useful. Its worth pointing out that about 1/3 of the party MPs were leavers compared to 2/3 remainers.
Andrea Loathsome, looks like she is definitely out of it. She has two backers so only just has enough to nominate her... So too is Rory. He's now up to four backers (Nicholas Soames, David Guake, Victoria Prentis and Ken Clarke - arguably four of the most sensible of Tories).
Poor old Esther can only better Rory by virtue of her boyfriend backing her (she's on 5). Kit Malthouse and his useless compromise doesn't seem to have done him much good. He's on 6, together with the candidate you've never heard of Mark Harper.
The Guardian is reporting this evening that in order to speed up the process, the 1922 committee is likely to change the rules to make hopefuls have a minimum of 8 nominaters.
On twelve is Matt Hancock who only has remainers backing him and no cabinet support although he does have the disgrace Damian Green (he's not going to win with that then).
Struggling on 16 is Sajid Javid who manages 4 leavers and 12 remainers. And Jeremy Wright.
On 22 is Raab. He manages 4 remainers and 18 leavers. And David Davis.
Which leaves the big three Hunt, Gove and Johnson.
The interesting thing is just how much Hunt is struggling for support from Leavers and high profile MPs. He has 25 backers but just 3 are leavers. It seems he just isn't looking credible to Leavers. Its hard to see how Liam Fox backing him gives him any more - Fox clearly saw an opportunity to get back into Cabinet in Hunt that he doesn't with the other candidates, by being a lonely leave voice. Hunt is also struggling to get the backing of many 'big names'. Looking through the list, he has the most 'bland' supporters.
Gove is on 26 and Johnson is in the lead by ten with 36.
So far 160 Tory MPs have declared their first round support (54%). With lots of ministers still sat on the fence about who they intend to back.
(Sam Gyimah and Graham Brady have no declared support at present.)
You'd have to assume if Raab is eliminated, many of his backers will go Johnson.
How an 'anyone but Boris' campaign fits into this, in the later stages is interesting - but you have to think along the lines of this: The moderates and remainers have the majority in the parliamentary party and they are the ones who will want to block Boris. So who do you vote for to block Boris if only two go through to the final run off? Logically you'd say the person running third... You have to conclude that Hunt is definitely trying to run the numbers and play the tactical card here. But Fox could be a big mistake and Hunt certainly seems to have a credibility problem in a crucial area and runs the risk if he does make it to the final two, that he looks by far and away the remain candidate against Gove.
I have to say, that although its early days Gove looks highly likely to make the run off from this. A position in the final is his to lose. Its more a question of who he will be up against...