Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

TIP

MN feels so much diminished every time something like this happens.

There is currently a survey somewhere asking how MN could be improved.
I participated. I urge others to also.

Can TiP sign up again using a different email address etc? Not that you should have to, TiP but at least it would enable you to participate.

Raab- the middle manager who thinks he is the CEO

Pmk

TiP

Is Raab a match for the Faragists led by Gordon Gekko ...

" the Gordon Gekko of British politics. It’s striking, to those who care to look, just how much his agenda is about class interest: He opposes extended maternity leave, raising the minimum wagee_ and reducing the retirement age — anything that inconveniences his nouveau riche confederates. If he had his way, many of his supporters would be working harder, longer, for less money, with less protection. That, indeed, is his Brexit dream: Singapore on the Thames."

Good article here:
www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/opinion/nigel-farage-brexit.html

Also .. I've been pondering lack of campaigning in the EP elections. Due wholly or partly to lack of funds Labour and the Conservatives didn't campaign at all. Was this a mistake? Would it have made a difference? Did both parties have a gentleman's agreement to keep shtum ?

Obviously their low participation gave the LDs, Greens and Faragists a clear run.

Did the two previously main parties have a pact between them?

What is so interesting about Rory Stewart's statement is that he urges the UK to adopt an idea that was used successfully (as a means of passing the political buck, certainly, but also to tone down rhetoric as the campaign wore on) in Ireland.

This is a completely new and incredible thing for a British politician. I cannot imagine any other politician openly advocating the adoption of an idea from elsewhere and in particular an Irish idea.

Thanks bigchoc. I’m in denial about Brexit as I really really really hope it won’t happen.

I’m in the East Midlands and we had leaflets from Labour, UKIP and BrexitP. We are in Tory Central but got nothing from the Conservatives. Either they were too arrogant and assumed they would walk it or they didn’t want to invest any money in retaining MEPs who were going to have to leave the EP anyway.

I think lots of Tory/Lab volunteers refused to campaign a) because they felt the elections shouldn’t be happening and b) because they knew they’d get above on the doorsteps. Also no money.

abuse not above

PMK

Thanks Born and Rhubarb.

It must have been a secret jointly planned decision based on their lack of money though. Not campaigning does demonstrate a faith that the MEPs won't have a role beyond October.

I guess both parties agreed the opposite of 'better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all.'

Either they were too arrogant and assumed they would walk it or they didn’t want to invest any money in retaining MEPs who were going to have to leave the EP anyway.

It certainly wasn’t the first one! You’d literally have to be in a bubble to think the Tories would walk it in the Euros.

The reason they didn’t campaign is they had no money for a campaign (donors deserting them) and their activists either jumped ship to Brexit or were too disillusioned to support them by shoving leaflets through doors.

Delurking to ask if anyone knows whether I will be able to vote for the new Conservative leader? I joined the party (not envy) on 31 March for this reason only. Thanks.

I think you'll be safe bearing in mind the contest doesn't start until early June and there's so many candidates to whittle down.

I am at parents today - things got heated last night as DM, DF and Dsis all voted Leave originally. They all think the Irish question can be solved with ANPR camera technology (and Dsis believes "no one wants go back to the 1970 troubles) whilst the pain from Leaving will last less than 10 years as we will crash out, but then negotiate with Europe, America, etc. They also think Theresa May has been humiliated in the negotiations with EU leaders.

Just where do you start with? Where? Actually, I do need to search back through the threads as they want some facts and figures refuted (including the fun £350 million one), but it's gone beyond that. They honestly don't care about the price of food going up or businesses collapsing.

Here’s the link to the UK Statistics Authority statement on the misleading use of the £350 million a week - published before the EU referendum:

www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/uk-statistics-authority-statement-on-the-use-of-official-statistics-on-contributions-to-the-european-union/

And the follow up letter in 2017:

www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Letter-from-Sir-David-Norgrove-to-Foreign-Secretary.pdf

Lisa Nandy and Stella Creasy, both from Labour put forward the idea of a citizens assembly ages ago but it got nowhere.

@Lucky it’s 3 months so I guess it would depend on the date of the actual vote.

Re people assembly at least it may people actually confront the realities of no deal, think in Ireland they said it helped each side of the argument see the other point of view. This should have been done years ago even before we had the referendum.

Other than religion or football can’t think of something that has divided people so much. Tory party have managed to elevate a ‘family argument’ into a political disaster.

Had a peak at my MP’s Facebook page no idea what his actual grassroots members are saying to him but Boris was helping campaign in the Local Elections and his presence wasn’t exactly welcomed.

I understand the lack of campaign money etc. What I'm interested in is the internal Lab/Con political decision making.

Did Lab and Con entirely independently conclude there were no funds and no point in campaigning? Unlikely.

Or was there a cross party gentlepersons agreement not to campaign. If the latter, why can't they reach consensus on other stuff. Also do they regret not campaigning, would it have made a difference.

Just so drained by the endless torture. How far from the bottom of this cataclysm are we. I'm thinking May was just the downward descent and we have so much further to fall.

They are discussing Rory the Tory on Sky News, he seems to be the most 'likeable' candidate and has done well to get the attention of the media. I am intrigued to see how the televised leadership hustings will go, it will be a pile on for Boris.

I watched Newsnight last night with reference to BXP social media am I understanding this correctly, they (unofficially) took on a local Facebook page with 18K followers in Merthyr to give the illusion that they were more popular in the area than they actually were ? Then shut it down after the election as it wasn’t official (and questions start being asked). Sneaky.

I'd missed that James Cleverly had joined in the 'how many Tory leadership candidates can you fit in a phone box' contest!

It's more who isn't standing than who is.

Lonely There are restrictionists on campaign spending so Euros were a national campaign for which they hadn’t budgeted for as they weren’t expected and I’m not sure they ever put a great deal of effort in with the Euros anyway it’s usually only the hardcore supporters that bother turning out for those. Plus the fact Tory Party donors have been keeping wallets shut or spending elsewhere with BXP and one big one is apparently backing Change.

Basilpots - that was my understanding about the Facebook page too - and an extreme right wing one at that. I would have to look at the clip again to see the changes it went through - but the full right wing hatred stuff, not just a benign little local community page. Then when the work was done, 'oh it wasn't official, even though it now has our name', so we will close it down. Yes, a modern version of the Goebbels playbook. Leavers on the thread now closed, would not admit that they were following a fascist, but will scream about Corbyn's anti-semitism. Farage has played them for fools and they were too dumb to notice - I want to leave the EU, the shopkeeper said. I bet that 6 years ago, he never gave it a moments thought.

icant

I really don't think a citizens assembly is a good idea. Not for something as massive and complicated as brexit

I kind of agree with you. If 500 people agreed the best option was for a No Deal Brexit and we crashed out purely due to the citizens assembly. I would be livid.
I’m sure Leavers would be similarly unimpressed if we remained due to the assembly.

But if the citizens assembly is used to frame the questions for a second referendum then I think it’s a great idea. It would take ages though. So we would need a huge extension from the EU - or we could revoke article 50.