Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Thanks Pretty. I’m a Scot living in England so am not too tapped into things but my DM who strongly opposed any form of nationalism all her life and was really saddened by what she saw as deeply divisive indyref 1, would now probably vote yes in an indyref 2 rather than be shackled to Westminster toxic relationship and Governments led by the nose of English nationalism.

I’m reluctant to rejoin the LDs at the moment, largely because of their stance on gender self id but also because I think a few more of their policies need reexamining. (However they seem to think I’m still a member.)
I’d like to see a major realignment in the centre ground with policies sharpened up for the 21st century. We live in a very different world than even in 2000, let alone the 70s/80s when much current political thinking was formed.

@LouiseCollins28

Why out of interest?

Are you a brexiteer? Someone who can’t forgive the LDs for their time in coalition? Or is it something about Jo Swinson personally?

Born I totally agree and think this is again a particular issue with labour in the way it is organised... times have moved on since the days when working class was highly industrialised and unionised and the party doesn’t reflect the new needs of marginalised workers

Ah, the delicious irony of the incompetent Trump endorsing the equally incompetent BJ.Take heed - run!

I am a leave voter, I wouldn’t call myself a Brexiter though other people might. I have nothing whatever against Jo Swinson personally, from what I hear she’s a well liked representative. I have in fact voted Lib Dem on many occasions, most recently nationally in 2010 and locally as recently as a month ago.

I think the Lib Dem coalition government was a mixed blessing but on the whole positive and I’d give the LDs a lot of credit for being willing to participate. The student fees thing still wrankles massively and has been sadly overtaken by the party’s entirely logical Brexit stance. I completely get why they’ve seen to opportunity of being the party for “the 48%” my sadness is that while doing so they persist in using the label “Democrats” a title which I really think they ought to have set aside IMO.

Lastly I do, just sometimes, like to see people who think they are powerful and important brought low on occasion by the humble voter. Chris Patten, Ed Balls, Vince Cable (hasn’t he turned it round!) and Jim Murphy being particularly memorable examples.

Whichever tory gets in they can't do no deal or there will be a vonc and GE?

Is that correct?

So some sort of brino by Oct 31st seems likeliest.

Which begs the question why bother?

Let's just be very British and pretend this whole clusterfuck never happened?

The "democrats" bit is only because they merged with the old SDP
It keeps the history for that bit of the merged party that remain social democrats

buffy Any suggestion of BRINO would likely destroy a new Tory PM, if they were elected promising No Deal (or unicorns)
Hence, he / she would v likely choose No Deal, to save their political arse in the immediate short term.

The likelihood of No Deal depends first on whether those Tories who threaten to vote NC would actually go through with it

• and also how many Labour Brexiters like Hoey would vote to save a govt that promises Brexit

Also of course, a GE could produce a majority for the Tories, possibly with Faragist MPs

The most recent poll suggested there would be a majority for Labour+LDems+SNP but that could easily change in these turbulent times

• and getting any arrangement between 3 (!) parties, including the SNP, could mean fraught times

The best hope of avoiding No Deal is that the Tories choose a leader who explicitly rules out No Deal, e.g. Hammond, Stewart, Hancock,
or who is known to be quietly against, e.g. Gove

@LouiseCollins28

I share your guilty pleasure at seeing the high and mighty brought low... but Jo Swinson? There are many, many MPs who’ll I’ll be looking out for come a GE, but even if I wasn’t a LD supporter, I can’t see her being high on my list!

{ times have moved on since the days when working class was highly industrialised and unionised and the party doesn’t reflect the new needs of marginalised workers}

For me the application of 'strike' action was always wrong headed.
Looking at it from the companies CUSTOMER point of view, which is crucial, having a workforce that refuse to work, and risk 'quality issues' in products/services you may be buying would be a massive turn off. At a time before globalisation really kicked off, say 40 or 50 years back, there was some leverage in striking, but now when it is relatively easy to source elsewhere a more considered approach is necessary.

{Whichever tory gets in they can't do no deal or there will be a vonc and GE?}
Leaving by crashing out is still a, internationally legally available approach that the new PM could use as it is the position with the EU.
'The computer says NO'.

I’ve been away for a week, and just catching up on Brexit is already increasing my stress levels.

The more I think about it, the more I blame David Cameron. Firstly for going ahead with the referendum (why? it’s not like anyone expects political parties to keep their manifesto promises), and secondly for resigning. He should’ve stayed on and made Boris/Gove responsible for Brexit. They wanted to leave, they should have had responsibility for sorting it out from the beginning. He should’ve left them to it and ignored it as much as possible and just said “I’ve got the people who campaigned passionately for Brexit sorting it out” whenever anybody asked.

The "democrats" bit is only because they merged with the old SDP
It keeps the history for that bit of the merged party that remain social democrats

Bizarrely the social democrats still exist, still led by David Owen I believe, and now a pro-Brexit party.

For me the Lib Dems, especially on a local level, are Tories in disguise. It came as no surprise to me personally that they went in coalition with David Cameron. They were never going to go with Gordon Brown.

Tories are now likely to have the contest between final four, instead of final two. It's such a mess and a muddle. A harsh metaphor for the current state of the Conservative Party.

In Jo Swinson's defence, she was/is a good constituency MP - unlike the SNP MP who replaced her for a single term (Who was by all accounts an arrogant sod )

But my Dad won't vote for her ever again, when she came knocking and asking if she still had his vote (after he switched to LibDem after Labour because of the Iraq War) - and has told her such to her face (politely of course )

There's a lot of Labour hate for LD's atm, all over social media.
To be expected I suppose given the huge losses from Labour to LD due to the remain stance. Makes me feel sorry for Labour for still clearly not understanding the most pressing issue is Brexit for most of the UK and their weak stance just made them impossible to vote for.

Looks like some still haven't got their head around that.

The UK adversarial approach to government is the basic problem. You have to assess which nice filling you have in your sandwich and which flavour shit topping comes with it. Thus either the filling is horrible, or the topping is.

Yes, the current (tiny remnant) SDP is a weird contradiction of why it was originally founded

Roy Jennings & co were very pro-EU / EEC and said they couldn't stay in a Labour party that - in the early 1980s - had a policy to Leave.

Either David Owen has had a complete U-turn in his beliefs, or he wasn't being honest then about why he split from Labour,
.... or his ego caused him to turn away from the Liberal Party he chose to ally with in the 1980s, after he realised he would never be their leader

{Makes me feel sorry for Labour for still clearly not understanding the most pressing issue is Brexit for most of the UK and their weak stance just made them impossible to vote for.}

Labour have had 3 years to get their arse in gear,and have failed. Just as well Brexit is nothing important.

Where's the MN facepalm emoji?

Labour politicians worried about political consequences of moving to Remain,
should realise that Brexit is mostly about an internal squabble among those on the political right

Labour's main mistake is not accepting that most of those Leavers they are trying to pander to on Brexit will never vote for them anyway
and this pandering is losing them millions of their former core vote

Tory Lord Ashcroft's poll reported how 2017 GE voters switched during the recent European Parliament election:

53% of Tories went to the Brexit Party, BUT only 13% of Labour voters.

Labour lost far more voters to pro-Remain parties: to LibDems (22%), Greens (17%).

David Owen isn't involved in the new version of the SDP. He tried to wind the party up a few years ago (I think) but some members remained & the new (v different) party grew from that.

They seem v strongly pro brexit now & their candidate for the Peterborough by-election used to be in UKIP.

Though apparently (just looked him up) David Owen did support Vote Leave in 2016.

What does American media make of Boris Johnsons revoking his US citizenship ? You'd think in this day and age, someone in the US would have something to say about it. They seem to have an awful lot to say on everything else.