Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

I would disagree with a PP, though - her deal wasn't necessarily a hard Brexit - the PD is so woolly that it covers everything from a 'WTO-only (for GB)' to 'Brexit in name only' outcome...hence the Labour 'Blind Brexit' complaint.

That's true, but the path mapped out by the May govt (no FOM, independent trade policy) is very much a hard Brexit.

In 2016, any Brexit that took the U.K. out of the single market was viewed as "hard" because it creates hard trade borders.

In the Brexit deal scenario, the May position seems to me fairly middling between the No Deal/ERG one and the No Brexit (Green/Libdem) one.

Go and look at the Barnier staircase. May's Brexit is the bottom step. There are at least three other, softer Brexit models. It is hardly a "middle way".

I'm genuinely curious to know what compromises the May Brexit vision incorporates?

(Don't say Ireland. The backstop is NOT a compromise. It exists because the alternative is to fail to respect existing international obligations).

Nigel Farage has just phoned into Jacob Rees Mogg's radio show to make some kind of alliance with regard to getting a no deal brexit through in October.

Put that on the side of a bus and smoke it

Liberals, in the traditional as well as modern sense, really have fucked this one up.

That's true, but the path mapped out by the May govt (no FOM, independent trade policy) is very much a hard Brexit.

And yet much of the ERG still voted against it . I remember when it was voted down for the 3rd time thinking that the likes of Steve Baker and Bill Cash had shot themselves in the foot and that Brexit would now never happen... I hope I’m proven right - quite confident I will be.

I got the feeling that many opposed the WA on the basis that the UK hadn't written it, on principle as it feels like not taking back control.

I hope I’m proven right - quite confident I will be
Gun toting, racist, misogynistic thugs normally 'win'.

Nigel Farage has just phoned into Jacob Rees Mogg's radio show to make some kind of alliance with regard to getting a no deal brexit through in October

And how does Nige propose to do that with no MPs (or one, if the BP wins the Peterborough seat?)

There never was a chance of other EU members following the UK out,
once they actually saw Brexit, whether very soft, very hard, or anything between

Everyone, even those few who had intensively researched Brexit, seriously underestimated in how many ways it would damage us.

The softest Brexit would be some form of EEA & SM membership with a customs arrangement
that would be BRINO plus being a rule-taker - even EFTA just accepts about 25% of the EU rules

All the harder options involve some degree of economic damage and all mean rule-taking

Its like Year Zero wrt trade
We lose the 40 FTAs the EU has with 70 countries
We lose the 800 other trade arrangements

We have to renegotiate all trade deals with other countries - and many will demand tougher terms than they did with the EU, because they know we are desperate

Its like Year Zero wrt essential agencies, like EURATOM, EMED etc
We'll have to bild those agencies from scratch, without the EU economies of scale

There is no deal as good economically as the deal we have with the EU

Even JRM talks of 50 years before we see the benefits,
i.e. he's trying to postpone any recriminations until after he's died of old age

(I'm ignoring NI, since no other country has an equivalent problem)

This is why almost all the eurosceptic politicians outside the UK now want reform, NOT to leave the EU
Most no longer even genuinely want to leave the Euro

They have seen the mess the UK, the former #2 economy in the EU, has got itself into because of trying to Brexit

The incompetence & ignorance of most UK politicians has made Brexit laughable,
but the reason the few capable politicians are stuck as well is that Brexit has far too high a price for the economy

As Junker said about something completely different:
"we know what we have to do; we just don't know how to get elected afterwards"

And how does Nige propose to do that
He 'won' a referendum after inciting the assassination of a sitting MP......the rest is academic.

Nigel Farage has just phoned into Jacob Rees Mogg's radio show to make some kind of alliance with regard to getting a no deal brexit through in October.

I’m not sure what kind of “alliance” NF and JRM can cook up that would force through a no deal Brexit!?

If the new PM tries to take us down that route, the Government will be voted down by ‘sane’ Tories and we’ll have a General Election. Maybe NF and JRM will get together after that in a hard-Brexit alliance, but they’d have to win the election with an outright majority - if the British public vote for that, I’ll be damned.

Whichever genius thought up ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is culpable for some of this.

they’d have to win the election with an outright majority
They've won already. Rifles and Racism. Men and Football.
The toxic quatrain.

Farage and JRM as an alliance.
Toxic AF.
[envy}
not envy

I heard that 😔
Beyond the disaster that is brexit itself I think these two men will wreck the union. Bye Ireland. Bye Scotland.
It just struck me earlier that the vote to leave wasn't at all about the EU (as we all know), it was really about ending the Union. The UK one.
It was in fact England voting for independence.

The HoC/cabinet are working with old and suspect data from 3 years ago. Rehashing opinions and messing with 'models' is not good enough to base something as leaving the EU on. Trouble is we can't get 'fresh' current data because the 'instruments' have been vandalised. Opinion polls are no good, they can be gamed far too easily and although you can try with statistical chicanery, they will never be as reliable as slips of paper in a ballot box (which can be gamed but not quite as easily).

They've won already. Rifles and Racism. Men and Football. The toxic quatrain.

Wow... you really are a prophet of doom and despair! Give up all hope if you must... but I won’t. They haven’t “won” anything yet. It’s all to play for!

A rightwing Tory party allying with Farage fo No Deal is the nightmare of the moderate Tories who are still hanging on.

Are those moderate Tories numerous enough to keep the hardline Brexiters out of the final 2 ?

If not, are they going to vote NC in their own govt and then provide C&S for a Corbyn govt to handle Brexit - maybe via PV first ?

Reading the thread on John Cleese in AIBU which turned into a full-on debate on identity made me realise it. Britishness all of a sudden doesn't seem good enough anymore. It's really about Englishness. I don't even think it's about nostalgia for the Empire. I get a strong sense that some people really want to look inwards. It's totally at odds with the 'global Britain' propaganda and reflects more the weariness of a people that wants to be left alone...

Brexit is very much an English Nationalist project

Nationalism is ok so long as it isn't the "blood & soil" type

• unfortunately that is exactly the nationalism of the Faragists and the Tory rightwing

And that type of nationalism is incompatible with the concept of the UK.

Remember those polls that said 80% of Brexiters would be prepared to break up the UK if necessary to achieve Brexit.

Must have brought a shudder to the DUP
and to Scottish Unionists

It seems that the Tory Party membership are now so right-wing and ultra-brexity that most say they want a "no-deal brexit". I'm sure that many do not have the first clue what the actual consequenses of that might be but just expect "good old Boris" or some other similar chap to sort it out.

In my view no-one could sort it out, least of all Boris Johnson, the second most prolific liar in UK politics, coming quite a close second to liar Farage.

I hope if this cannot be avoided, the decent Tory MPs who care about our country and can see through the lies will cross the floor of the HoC and join the LibDems.

Oh I think I missed those polls but it sadly makes sense.

Give up all hope if you must
Jo Cox's assassination was a pretty disgusting clue. Most, I agree, are too stupid to understand.

If not, are they going to vote NC in their own govt and then provide C&S for a Corbyn govt to handle Brexit - maybe via PV first ?

The way things are going a GE won’t lead to a Corbyn Government... especially if moderate Tories defect to the Lib Dem’s in the wake of a Boris or Raab quest for a no deal Brexit, and Corbyn continues to equivocate.