Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

May, just like her successor will, realised far, far too late that Brexit is disastrous for the UK and those who push it through will be damned in our country's history.

I don't think they realised too late - they knew from the off. The past 3 years have been a desperate attempt to wrestle with the dragon of populism that the **ing referendum unleashed in the vain hope it will kill your opponent before you.

Adopting my default "if you can't disprove it, I will continue to assert it" mode of debate, it's not completely certain that the 2017 election wasn't a sly attempt to get a Labour government into the position we are in now, with a Tory opposition still pretending to be united in telling us how shit they were doing. It's certainly one possible interpretation of Mays belated decision to call it, after repeatedly ruling it out. It was meant to be a last resort. The subsequent half-win wasn't anticipated, and has lead to the mess we are still in.

Guess it depends what kind of spectrum of opinion you are trying to draw into the compromise doesn't it?

Compromise where only 1 party moves isn't a compromise.

In the Brexit deal scenario, the May position seems to me fairly middling between the No Deal/ERG one and the No Brexit (Green/Libdem) one.

It might be less "middling" if your spectrum runs from "'where we were in 2015' to 'withdrawal from all EU institutions and structures'"

Again, that's a matter of opinion.

Guess it depends what kind of spectrum of opinion you are trying to draw into the compromise doesn't it?

But how can you compromise between wanting to leave and wanting to remain ? Alternate weekends ?

{May, just like her successor will, realised far, far too late that Brexit is disastrous for the UK}
I feel that she did understand, probably soon after signing A50 as her words suggested that the UK needs to be close to the UK.
However she was torpedoed by the ERG (sounds nasty!) and lost her footing rather than stamping them out and actually working on a compromise/middle way which would have been 'leave' within the realms of the leavers except the batshit ones, and remain enough not to bugger the rest of the country.

Not sure if that was intended to be funny but whatever, it's a good point DGR! Compromising between what people want on this is very hard/if not impossible. In terms of the pure outcome of Leave v Remain you're right, of course, it can't really be done.

{But how can you compromise between wanting to leave and wanting to remain ? Alternate weekends ?}
The 'degree' of leave is not really specified in the word 'Brexit' so a smarter cookie could have made a few grand gestures and quietly ignored some of the more damaging bits. Unless you KNOW you are dealing with EU documentation, stuff just arrives 'magically' in the shops. If you SAY you are going to expel EU workers, who is going to count them and make sure they have gone (Dino in the Flintstones comes to mind).

1tis that option was never a possibility because it would leave the EU at far too much risk of others following the UK out the door.

If we want to play a game of "I wouldn't start from here..." then a lot of the problems with Brexit started when Tories (and saying Tories isn't letting Labour off the hook - they are just as bad) felt that they could be "inclusive" of people that were as EuroSceptic as EuroPhilic. Which we now see was a deceit of the highest order - they were never a EuroPhilic party and have conned a lot of supporters by pretending to be so. (see also Labour). They should have decided one way or the other and properly represented themselves to the electorate (see also Labour).

But they didn't. They allowed themselves to be rattled by someone who is really the Del-Boy of British politics, and now we are all - leavers, remainers and people of indeterminate standing - suffering. And if a few people wanted to give Cameron "a bloody nose" before the referendum, then I'd wager there are a hell of a lot more wanting to give a lot more people a lot more than a bloody nose right now.

Anyhow ....

Things to watch out for, if and when the Tories get a new leader and assuming that leader becomes PM :

some form of clause or mechanism baked into the next iteration of "the deal" which prevents it being reversed before the election after next. Because that is the only way I can see there being any hope of the Tories being elected after that .... if they turn around to the public and say there's no point voting for rejoin as no one can do that ... let's carry on Conservative*

*(There isn't a "C" big enough to put in that sentence ....)

{some form of clause or mechanism baked into the next iteration of "the deal" which prevents it being reversed before the election after next.}

But of course you can't bind governments into the future.

howabout
I would really doubt the EU would collapse. One or two others might have flirted with the idea of leaving but with the possibilities of fudge and the greater risk to mainland European countries leaving (like miles of border fencing for a start) at which point as long as it didn't impinge on the four pillars a workaround would be found. There are afterall 27 more countries to go at.

But of course you can't bind governments into the future.

Except via the Backstop apparently

{Except via the Backstop apparently}
That is an international treaty issue.

But of course you can't bind governments into the future.

Which hasn't stopped this lot trying.

Part - not all, but part - of the problem has been this inability to set Brexit in stone. Hence the ongoing media storm trying to browbeat the country into accepting it as somehow inevitable (looks at calendar with March 29th scratched off) and irreversible. Hence the near-deification of "the will of the people" and the repeated attempts to make an end run around the democratic process as it's all a massive game of paper-scissors-stone and "referendum beats election".

if they turn around to the public and say there's no point voting for rejoin as no one can do that ... let's carry on Conservative

If we leave I can’t see the EU letting us re-join this side of the 22nd century!

{If we leave I can’t see the EU letting us re-join this side of the 22nd century!}

London will probably be under water by then.

If we leave I can’t see the EU letting us re-join this side of the 22nd century!

There are a lot of unsentimental reasons for the r27 preferring the UK in rather than out. Interestingly not disconnected from the ERGs motives for wanting the UK out.

The Turquoise Party's new catchphrase is "Losers' Consent" I heard both the aged former Strictly contestant and Faragit (and one of the other Big Arrow MEPs but I can't remember who) use it in the aftermath of the EP elections, because they consider themselves to be in a dominant position

It's their version of "it's the Remainers fault that this is all going wrong and they're the reason that the sunny uplands with gambolling unicorns and everlasting cake have not appeared"

louise if compromise can't be done (you are right, of course, it can't) and even you (as a leaver) agree that no deal Brexit would be disastrous then....where are we?

Where are we.....

I've a paddle that could be borrowed

{I've a paddle that could be borrowed}

But you need the canoe first.

We're too far in for compromise anyway. Leavers gambled everything on being able to pull the UK out before anyone had a chance to complain. They lost that gamble and now - totally out of character - are unwilling to own the consequences of that gamble.

There isn't much certainty in the world. It's too big for that. However, we were members of the EU yesterday. We are today. And we will be tomorrow. That's 3 certainties (and it's not even teatime). Against that small little pile of driftwood - barely enough for kindling, you can wash the oceans of talk from all the various leavers over the past 3 years, and yet it remains.

Put that on the side of a bus and smoke it.

I find that oddly comforting DG thank you x

DGR that’s almost poetry. Thank you.

Seconding or thirding the Poetic comfort. 📖

Still a bit worried in case we are fiddling away the run up to Halloween. But the change of driver gives us a good excuse for revisiting the no more extensions doesn't it...

almost poetry ?

I guess I'd better keep those notebooks safe a bit longer then

mind you, a damn sight better than my painting ....