Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

It's not that difficult to understand that the rules state that MEPs serve for a set period - and that beyond that they are no longer the elected representatives And that for the continued legitimacy of the EP Parliament (you know, that democratic insitution ), all member states have to participate as per its rules.

...unless you're also prepared to argue that in the UK's own democratic institution, MPs could be in post for longer than 5 years because it's "not convenient" to hold an election

...and even if an extra 6 months had been "allowed", what would have happened if the UK were to have then chosen to revoke? (which we still, theoretically, could). Would the (by then, non elected) MEPs then just have stayed on? Because you couldn't then have an election as the EP elections have to happen within a specific time period.

Holding the EP elections was the inevitable consequence of an extension that went beyond the minimum period required to announce that the elections were being held (which is why 12 April was the initial extension date) - because at any point the UK could revoke.

Ironically, if the ECJ judgement had been that we couldn't revoke, we might have been able to get a longer initial extension, up to 23 May and perhaps even up to the point that the EP Parliament reconvenes.

howabout That's the situation fr

oops, cut off there !

That's the situation for all the extra MEPs from all countries

• the Uk has really pissed off a lot of current and future MEPs, especially the EP President

That's another good reason not to grant the Uk another extension

It's not that difficult to understand that the rules

Leavers don't like rules. We know that. Courts, laws ... they're all obstacles to their wet pipe dream.

Not an expert but couldn’t Macron be used as an example of what can happen when a group of people come together with varying political experience and views are rather hastily thrown together have a pop at running a country?

Since PSA own Vauxhall who knows what Mr Macron has up his sleeve for when the UK leaves.
IIRC they have a big stake in Nissan too.

Can you imagine how some of them would scream blue murder if Prime Minister May/Johnson/Corbyn (delete as appropriate ) were to decide to "just keep the current MPs on" for longer than 5 years, because "now isn't a convenient good time for an election

It would certainly be a different interpretation of the FTPA

I'm sure it does Misti. What I don't really get is why we couldn't just send the ones we'd already got to continue to serve until our departure date.

Because the EU has laws, and the laws say that member states have to elect members every 5 years.

It's not very complicated.

It seems to be too complicated for some to grasp

Not an expert but couldn’t Macron be used as an example of what can happen when a group of people come together with varying political experience and views are rather hastily thrown together have a pop at running a country?

In what sense? I think you've been reading too many right wing British "takes" on French politics (invariably misguided).

I live in France and from my perspective the Macron government is a reasonably competent modern government which has enacted many of the policies on its manifesto. I don't agree with all the policies but you can't deny that the Macron govt has a mandate (huge majority over Le Pen in the présidentielles, and his government has a very large majority in the National Assembly).

Sorry, that sounded unnecessarily snippy. Impossible to get a sensible perspective on France if you only read the U.K. papers. There are some good English language journos writing about France though - Kim Wilsher, John Lichfield, both based here.

Misti Not a criticism just an observation.

He wants to change things obviously it going to upset some people.

Folk who think things can change without actually experiencing some of that change themselves need to be aware of that. Just needs to be remembered. I couldn’t even tell you what the GJ protest are about now I think it started out as a fuel protest but it gets reported every which way over here depending on who you read and what point they are trying to make.

Misti none taken We also need to remember of course the French and rest of Eu will be suffering effects of Brexit. One of our suppliers thinks there current Brexit bill is getting towards 4m€ they have had to stockpile huge amounts of very expensive product over here to make sure they can service uk customers, as well as altering their whole supply chain in Europe to make sure it can continue without uk. They’ve had to take legal and financial steps to protect themselves. It’s not been cheap. It will be the same for many other European countries.

He wants to change things obviously it going to upset some people.

The French are always upset about something. It was ever thus (I've lived in France for over 20 years).

Folk who think things can change without actually experiencing some of that change themselves need to be aware of that. Just needs to be remembered. I couldn’t even tell you what the GJ protest are about now I think it started out as a fuel protest but it gets reported every which way over here depending on who you read and what point they are trying to make.

Your view of the GJ protests is mediated by the U.K. media - though tbf the French media also got excited about them.

The GJs have been vastly over reported and over hyped, mainly because they fit the populist "narrative". In reality, after the first month in which there were some genuine grass roots protesters involved, it has mostly just been an excuse for the far left and the far right to chuck paving stones at the cops (and each other), smash up some street furniture and set small businesses on fire. The numbers are tiny - more people attended a peaceful pro Macron protest in Paris that you won't have read about because no one picked a fight with the cops.

It was clear from the start that the GJs were being used mainly as a tool of the far right. Their support has collapsed and the two GJ lists for the EP elections got hardly any votes.

Mistigri may well correct me but the original GJ protests were about a fuel price rise actually proposed by the previous government.
The distances to travel in France are large and outside larger towns and cities there is no real effective bus/train network so fuel price is a big issue. The first round of increase went ahead but the second, due in January was deemed too much and a grassroots protest emerged.
It snowballed then other parties piled in and turned a relatively peaceful protest nasty, with the rioting in Paris and several other cities.
The earlier GJ demands, added to the fuel rise issue had some validity, such as curbing the use of pesticides and a few other reasonable 'demands' although some were complete batshit, such as lower taxes but higher welfare payments.

So Misti Tis are the French people happy with what he is doing?

I’m never quite sure UK media always seem more interested in the age difference with his wife more than anything else.

I noticed the GJ list got hardly any vote in the EP elections
So much hype from some of the British media about how popular they are

The GJ now just seem in it as an excuse for hooliganism

@YouGov
If Labour members went public with how they voted at the EU Parliament elections last week the party would have to kick out 41% of its membership. While 45% of Labour members voted backed the party last week, another 19% went Green, and 15% went Lib Dem
yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/30/if-everyone-revealed-how-they-voted-last-week-labo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=party_members_EU_parl_vote …

Even more astonishingly, fully two thirds (67%) of Conservative party members voted for a different party at the EU Parliament elections. 59% backed the Brexit Party, more than 3x the number who voted for their own party (19%) yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/30/if-everyone-revealed-how-they-voted-last-week-labo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=party_members_EU_parl_vote …

How come the Turquoise Limited Company only got a few more seats when it was taking votes from lots more tories, and had replaced its own purple incarnation?

@GuidoFawkes
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Hearing Times/YouGov poll tonight will be a shocker. Word is it is going to show LD 24%, BXP 22%, Lab 19%, Con 19%.

Will be interesting to see if old P.Staines is tight about this one!

right not tight!

If it says Tory party members there are only about 120k of those and I’m not sure how representative of the Tory voting population.

WOW - fptp on that poll !

Just for fun, I plugged into the Electoral Calculus seat predictor
that LD 24%, BXP 22%, Lab 19%, Con 19%
and I guestimated UKIP = ChUK= 1%, GRN 8% (Remaining 6% are SNP+Plaid+NI)

BREX would be in 2nd place - but behind LAB, not LDs
FPTP still buggers poor LDs - and greatly benefits LAB !
.....
LAB 202 (124 short of majority - VERY hung Parliament)
BREX 141
LD 119
CON 110
GRN 1
SNP 55
Plaid 4

Ah, remember the Lib-Lab pact ?

So Misti Tis are the French people happy with what he is doing?

Most of them are not very happy because being dissatisfied is a national pastime. So is moaning about your president, often one you elected cheerfully only a year or so earlier. (Remember François Holland? )

Macron isn't popular, but he's not really any less popular than other presidents, and I think there is a solid rump of pro-business, socially liberal France who thinks he's doing all right. Despite the fragmentation of the vote, at the European elections LREM got close 50% of the vote in some city constituencies - DD's left bank arrondissement voted 45% LREM for example.

They'd need at least 3 parties to form a govt - maybe SNP too?

Now the govt spent 3 years disagreeing with itself when it was only 1 party .....
Wouldn't 3 parties be fun
We'd need that original 2099 extension !