Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Brexit: UK car production plunges amid 'untold damage' of EU leave date chaos

An examply of why we can't just keep extending without purpose
It costs !

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/30/uk-car-production-plunges-amid-untold-damage-of-brexit-chaos

Car production plunged by nearly half in April as factories shut down to prepare for a Brexit date that never came,
prompting renewed anguish from the UK motor industryy^ at the “untold damage” done by prolonged uncertainty.

In a slump that the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) described as “extraordinary”, 70,971 vehicles rolled off the production lines in April, down 44.5% from 127,970 in the same month of last year.

I Did anyone else hear Philip Hammond almost supporting a referendum^

No, thanks for the link. I’ve always thought Hammond seems fairly sane (but I’m a bit biased towards him as he reminds me of my dad).

From the Guardian live updates:

*Jeremy Corbyn has further muddied the waters on Labour’s line on a second referendum by suggesting such a vote may not include the option to remain.

Challenged in Dublin on whether Labour envisioned an in-out referendum, he said: “It would be on the basis of whatever we have succeeded in negotiating.”

The Irish Times has more:

Asked if a second referendum was now the only way forward for the UK, Mr Corbyn said: “The referendum would be on a negotiated deal or alternatives to that. It’s not a re-run of 2016.”*

That man HAS TO GO!!!!
He is the Tories' best and most reliable ally.
And how many times: HE is not negotiating anything, the Tories are.

Song I saw that too. He is taking fence sitting to a whole new level. That comment could be interpreted as not ruling it out or in.

Surely they have lost as many Leaver voters as is possible he is just further haemorrhaging Remainers now.

I saw that Len McLuskey was ruling out a second referendum is he one of Corbyns main supporters of the unions ?

That man HAS TO GO!!!! He is the Tories' best and most reliable ally

Agreed, the main reason some people vote Tory now is because they are scared of a Corbyn run government.

IDS is a gem. He is thoroughly put out that no-one is prosecuting him because he is ready to stand by the bus.

Esther going even further saying Boris error was to underestimate the figure.

Meanwhile in Scotland everyone is consulting Javid before doing anything #permissionfromsajid

I thought Cleverly knocked it out the park on Peston last night. Clear on getting Brexit done and moving on, refusing to hurl mud at Labour or anyone else, great sell of his backstory - very much sounding like the grown up who understands his Party and the wider electorate but also the voice of the next generation ready to move things forward (should be no surprise given his role). He is also pretty competent in a twitter spat.

Len McLuskey is like Corbyn - he is not representing his members. The Unite leadership is as bad as Labour with similar "tests" for Brexit (ie saying that they would only support a deal that has "the exact same benefits" as our current membership [confused That means Remain you Fuckers ]) and have as big a fence post splintering their collective backsides as the Labour front bench (Starmer excluded)

But Len and Jeremy are too unreconstructed Lexiters who see the EU as a capitalist conspiracy . I get the impression that they are also both advocates of disaster socialism: "ra peeple" will rise up and revolt if we experience the drastic downturn of a No deal Brexit and they then get to build their socialist utopia with them at the top of course

Just for the record, I'm quite happy for anybody accused of breaking the law to be required to face a court of law. In fact. I'd rather everybody accused of breaking the law was taken top court (it might thin out our law books). Remain, Leave, Tory, Labour.

That's the clear blue water between myself and any Brexiteer who thinks their cause is somehow sacred. It's not, and the end never justifies the means.

Corbyn has probably read Matthew Goodwin:
One neglected finding in the Lord Ashcroft poll:

"Among all those who voted at the European elections, 50% said they had voted Remain in 2016 and 45% to Leave

But now 50% want to leave while 46% want to Remain

Second referendum? Be careful what you wish for"

Also see Lisa Nandy.
www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/opinion/house-commons/104193/lisa-nandy-mp-labour

Did Lord Ashcroft ask those who had voted Leave in 2016 who had now voted Remain? The 40% vote for Remain parties didn't come from nowhere.

However, I do agree that we would have to be careful what we wish for. The last Referendum was corrupted and would have been cancelled if it was binding, and with the mess Tories and Labour are in at present, it can't be guaranteed that they would pass sufficiently robust legislation to stop this happening again.

Lisa Nandy has no solutions though. Yes, she knows No Deal will be economic suicide for her area, but I can't see what she is offering to her Leave voters instead. Some of her arguments were thin - they saw off 'Tommy Robinson', but they didn't see off Farage. Farage - now looking to ally with the far right in the EU Parliament, but a bit smarter than 'Tommy Robinson' so knew to be a bit more careful about what he said.

IDS Fortunately for him not being likeable or particularly good at your job are not offences for which he can be prosecuted by law.

Hopefully his constituents will make their own judgement about him next election. He has a tiny majority.

But Len and Jeremy

What is the word for accidental misreadings at speed ?

Ben and Jerry

Maybe "the Saj" should concentrate on doing his fucking job now ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48451424

The government runs the risk of another Windrush scandal if "serious concerns" about its EU settlement scheme are not addressed, MPs have said.

(contd)

IDS is a gem. He is thoroughly put out that no-one is prosecuting him because he is ready to stand by the bus.

He should get someone to read the judgement to him so he understands it, rather than appearing to be a twat who sounds off before getting all the facts. Thank god we don't have people like him in charge of the country ...

Does the Ministry of Justice do pop-up versions of judgements. With pictures ?

"AvidForJavid" ?!?!

It's the power stance that does it DGR

How there are a lot of Leave voters out there (my parents) who didn’t vote on Thursday who believe No deal is not on but still want to leave with a deal. I think there are a lot more leave voters out there BXP has just revealed the ceiling on the hardcore.

Don’t think I can watch Question Time tonight.
Barry Gardiner (groan)
Alex Philips (Newly elected SE MEP - there are two and this is the Brexiteer one)
Jo Swinson
Stephen Pinker
Rory Stewart (he’s creeping up the public consciousness).

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/bbc-question-time-panel-from-epsom-1-6078563

So QT is continuing its proud tradition of never having had a pro-EU UK MEP on the panel - despite the UK having returned a majority of pro-EU MEPs

I see Javid has already pissed the Scots off. Clearly he has the imperiously arrogant part of his CV sorted.

I’ve just about caught up, so I’m no longer half a thread behind. But as I’m out and about again today this clearly won’t last.

I'm watching QT tonight for Stephen Pinker. I read his book 'The Language Instinct' about 15-20 years ago and it was a belter although I can't remember any of it now. I don't follow his every movement so I have no idea what he will be like now.

There is something fundamental in the English psyche that recoils in horror from being involved in decision making, and any hint of evidence based decision making that makes citizens assemblies a waste of time. Even if there were to be such a move, there's also an entrenched contempt for public opinion in the mechanisms of government that would nullify any decent suggestions that would be delivered.

I'm watching QT tonight for Stephen Pinker.

Experts don't get treated well on the BBC. Remember they wanted an astrologer to appear with Dara O'Briain and Prof. Brian Cox on "Stargazing Live" to "put their side of the debate".

All you need to do is find one person (the shoutier the better) who thinks they've experienced something that may be different to what is being suggested, and years of research, peer review and international agreement go down the crapper.

It would be too depressing to list examples, but if it were an alphabetical list, lets start with anti-vaxxers and move on.

It might be time for my anti-cynicism medication.