No Deal Brexit - Bring it on

[Bearbehind]

It’s economic suicide but there’s clearly no other way to demonstrate to Leavers what a shit show this all is.

Leavers resolutely refuse to listen to anything negative after 3 years, so fuck it.

I feel for those who woukd be affected by it but I didn’t cause it.

The irony is there’s not a Tory MP with the guts he cone PM and then to do it - so this mess will go on indefinitely.

So we have to go through the economic turmoil of no deal to avoid signing the agreement that we will have to agree to eventually anyway

That’s about this size of it, given our current red lines back

This whole thing is a shit show of epic proportions because TM dug her heels in and didn’t come up with a workable consensus.

Now it’s just a case of damage limitation and managing expectations.

Making volatile comments like ‘the current WA will need to be signed even under no deal’ just fuels the fire.

I really don’t get your point, op

To be honest lonely, I’m not sure I do.

I guess I’m saying no deal is the only way to make Leavers see the reality but noone has the balls to do it because they know how catestrophic it will be so we’re stuck in this never ending cycle.

{Now it’s just a case of damage limitation and managing expectations.}

I seem to remember people promising unicorns 3 years ago.
Spending extra money on the NHS and all manner of things. How are these plans coming on? You would have thought that after 3 years of extra resources the NHS would be back to tip top condition with plenty of nursing and medical staff being trained.
How about the Northern Powerhouse? It seems to have gone a bit quiet considering the Tory plan is to take the worlds manufacturing by storm. Have any bricks been laid to start the process?
Since the UK sovereign government has full control of 99.3% of the GDP (minus about 2 % that is required to be spent by NATO) surely great things should be happening and the 'Leavers' are leading the way.
Or are they still trying to decide what a 'Brexit' looks like, because I am afraid the slogan 'Brexit means Brexit' is not over descriptive.

The WA contains a transition period.
We can reject a transition period, but will still need to sign up to the bare bones: citizens rights, financial commitments and the Irish border. These will all need to be sorted before trade deal negotiations start.

If we compared leaving with an operation rather than divorce, yeah, bring it on, we don't need an anaesthetic a stiff upper lip will sort the pain, so long as we believe.

It might be perceived as volatile by Leavers who would prefer to stick their fingers in their ears rather than listening to what the EU are saying. I don't think we should ever stop talking about the reality of what no deal involves and we need to keep calling out those politicians that imply it is an easy option. I also think we should stop calling it no deal and go back to what it is which is crashing out of the EU or a disorderly exit. No deal implies that we are like some ballsy hot shot wheeler dealer that will just stick two fingers up at the EU by saying 'sorry no deal'. Reality is we will crash out of the EU and will have come back with our tail between our legs begging for a deal anyway.

back I’m totally with you there.

This whole mess could have been avoided with a bit of honesty.

But it has to be true - you can’t point out the realities at the same time as over exaggerating them.

That’s the point I’m trying to make.

I really never thought there would come a day when I said I agreed with Bear! But I have little time for the 'project fear' remainers that Leclerc is representing. You'd think that everything is going to stop on the 31st Oct. Which isn't true. Just because we wouldn't have a trade deal doesn't mean goods still won't come into the country. They still will but with tariffs. There will be other sources for products that we have previously relied on from the EU.
There are plenty of things in the WA that we would agree to and have already said we would a line our rules and regulation with the EU such as food standards, environmental standards, workers rights etc. Many EU laws have already been enshrined in UK law over the last few months. So this 'the end is nye' really doesn't help your cause at all Leclerc.

PMSL double

Maybe there is hope after all 😂

There are plenty of things in the WA that we would agree to and have already said we would a line our rules and regulation with the EU such as food standards, environmental standards, workers rights etc. Many EU laws have already been enshrined in UK law over the last few months. So this 'the end is nye' really doesn't help your cause at all Leclerc

Yes but unless the EU open up the WA and remove the backstop, it wont get signed by any new Tory PM. So the so called good bits ain't going to happen.

Aligning our rules and regs to the EU limits our ability to have a independent trade policy, a key Tory requirement, esp on Agri/food, which even within the devolved governments will be highly problematic, as they have governance over key aspects.

I believe the WTD will go if the Tories gain power at the GE, its seen as bureaucratic and costly by business.

I am basing many of my comments on what the legality of A50 implies (750 treaties rendered null and void overnight) and the ripple effect that would cause. No insurance=no flight etc.
If I am so out of line, why is the UK government turning the A20 into a long truck park, hiring ships that don't exist, preparing the army to carry out essential medical transportation, cancelling of police holidays and a thousand and one other things, spending tens of billions in the process?
It suggests that 'it will be fine' doesn't quite cover it. I also don't do 'mind control' so what has possessed several thousand other people to get into preparations?
The fact that the EU have said that the WA will be signed (it was referenced on another thread), and even if it is slightly reworded 'for clarification' the legal meanings will not be changed.
Thus I am not entirely on my own with these thoughts.

I guess I’m saying no deal is the only way to make Leavers see the reality but noone has the balls to do it because they know how catestrophic it will be so we’re stuck in this never ending cycle.

But I've pointed out to you that lives are literally at risk in Northern Ireland with this strategy. When will you get that in your head? Northern Ireland isn't some abstract concept, we're real people. I'm walking through Belfast as I type this. Breaking or compromising a peace treaty has real life or death consequences and I wish people would realise that.

And I’ve pointed out that I don’t think it will happen anyway.

@MindyStClaire I agree and I fear that the Tory party will put the Tory party first and give in to the threat of Farage, which is what got us in this mess in the first place. Listening to the Tory leadership candidates talk about crashing out with no deal or things like invisible borders with no mention of consequences for the people of NI is just shameful. I just hope the EU stands firm on this.

But you're still advocating it Bear. We should be very careful about making the unacceptable start to send acceptable by discussing it even in the abstract.

But I've pointed out to you that lives are literally at risk in Northern Ireland with this strategy. When will you get that in your head? Northern Ireland isn't some abstract concept, we're real people. I'm walking through Belfast as I type this. Breaking or compromising a peace treaty has real life or death consequences and I wish people would realise that.

Arguing with no-deal supporters is a lot like arguing with anti-vaxxers. They ignore the evidence of experts and don't care about the effect on others, in the same way no deal supporters don't care what happens in Northern Ireland. Interestingly, there was a documentary on YouTube I think that said presenting the facts had no effect other than to make them more entrenched in their views. The only thing that had any effect was to meet patients who had suffered negative effects from measles. Perhaps we could send hard Brexiters en masse to NI to meet people who were affected by the Troubles.

Gogreen please can you explain what will be the long gain?
I truly want to understand?

mindy I didn’t vote Leave, I don’t want us to leave, I don’t think we will leave with no deal - I was simply making the point that those Leavers who support no deal will only understand how bad it would be if it actually happened.

You would do better venting your frustration at those who choose this path, especially your fellow countrymen.

Bear my point is that when remainers are going around advocating no deal, all hope is lost.

And I have plenty of issues with the Northern Irish electorate, but a) a majority voted remain and backed that up at the European elections, and b) a minority of DUP voters doesn't absolve the rest of the UK's responsibly to NI.

The speech by Juncker that Pesty linked to below makes it clear that if the UK wants to reach a deal with the EU, then that deal will contain the three core elements of the WA. (Only very deluded unicorn-lovers would suggest that we don't need any form of deal with the EU, as that scenario would involve UK citizens having to eat imaginary unicorns for lack of other available food...).
It may come down to semantics, if the adults in the room decide that renaming the WA is a means of ensuring it is accepted at the UK end, but the basis of the WA is here to stay.

This is what Juncker stated about no-deal, which it says is v likely. (The link led to the speech in French; this is the English translation.)

there is no such thing as a 'managed or negotiated no-deal' and there is no such thing as a 'no-deal transition'.
And whatever happens, the United Kingdom will still be expected to address the three main separation issues.
Citizens' rights would still need to be upheld and protected.
The United Kingdom would still have to honour its financial commitments made as a Member State.
And thirdly, a solution would still need to be found on the island of Ireland that preserves peace and the internal market. The United Kingdom must fully respect the letter and spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.
'No-deal' does not mean no commitments. And these three issues will not go away. They will be a strict condition to rebuild trust and to start talking on the way forward.

Leavers can also agree there is a lot in the WA that was acceptable. The main problem being the 'backstop'. So perhaps a remainer can explain why the EU would pick option 1 that guarantees a no deal rather than option 2 which means no deal is only a future possibility.

1. EU refuses to drop the backstop & we leave with no deal at Halloween.
2. The EU drops the backstop, we have a 2 year extension, possibly negotiate a deal & everyone happy. Or if we dont agree a deal we have time to create an invisible Irish border. Either way 'no deal' would just be a possibility and even then we would have had 2 years more time to prepare.

So why is the EU insisting on a guaranteed no deal.

The EU will refuse to drop the backstop because it is part of saving lives in Ireland.
The UK only want to refuse the backstop because they don't really care about the GFA and the relative peace it has brought.
The EU can insist that option 1 is followed because unlike some deluded 'Leavers' they hold most if not all the cards, should they wish to play them. Thus far the EU has been well above board and has not demanded anything apart from respect for the GFA and the four founding pillars of the EU (2 elements of the WA). The exit bill is 'just money' and while it must be paid it takes a back seat compared to the preservation of lives.
Before too long the EU's gloves may well come off and the UK will discover that it is not the great 'I am' that it thinks it is. Unless the UK revokes, ALL deals with the EU will be on worse terms than now. The UK will also discover that the rest of the world is not a 'pushover'. Yes it will get deals, but at a worse rate than things through the EU and even deals not through the EU are not guaranteed.

From day 1 the EU has insisted that the WA, principally Citizens rights, the backstop and the exit bill WILL be signed. There is relatively little in the real world that the UK can do to prevent this, however much 'Leavers' squeal.

The EU will refuse to drop the backstop because it is part of saving lives in Ireland
So to stop the 'possibility' that lives will be put at risk in 2 years the EU is choosing to definitely put lives at risk immediately because they hold all the cards.

That is some messed up priorities from the EU.