Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

This whole Brexit and Farage shit is choosing Boaty McBoat Face again, but this time for a nation, not a boat

Interesting question on Rory Stewart. When I’ve seen him interviewed he seems to make a fair amount of sense and be grounded and realistic. I don’t actually know a whole lot about him though and his record (good and bad) compared to some more senior figures, Johnson, Gove, Javid and Hunt for example.

I am dissapointed but not surprised to see Amber Rudd take herself out of the running. Thought she did a decent job making the governments case in that debate where May ran and hid (one of her key failures IMO)
Not surprised that Rudd isn’t standing though given her majority in her seat is tiny, makes her too vulnerable and a risk.

My own preference would usually be for someone who has proven themselves competent in doing one of the other “big jobs”. Chancellor, Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary. I think this is less important if a new leader is becoming leader in opposition (like Cameron) but more important if they are also becoming PM.

With that criteria set, I think there is one standout potential leader for the Conservatives who is way ahead of the rest! In ordinary times I think they’d chose him fairly readily (unless there’s some personal animus I know nothing about). Regrettably for him he’s a Remainer so his chances are minimal and I’ve not even heard a whisper about him standing. I’ll let you work out whom I’m thinking of for yourselves.

@LouiseCollins28 Hammond? I thought he would’ve been a good choice last time around.

Got it in one! Yeah he might have been but since he’s now Chancellor as well as Foreign Sec. I’d have thought he’d make the ideal “alternative to Boris” candidate. That’s in normal times though, I fear we’ll end up with 2 candidates trying to outdo each other on Brexit, one of whom will be Boris.

Counting for most places beings on Sunday afternoon, I believe. My Local district starts at 4pm. There would I imagine have been no reason not to start counting before then, but the risk of the result leaking out might be too great.

You may wonder why the verifications happened? This is normally where the parties get a good idea of how their vote share is holding up. This time the papers have to be verified face down, so it's not possible to gauge the result. EU law apparently. It makes me wonder if this is another UK addition to EU law, having seen the exit poll stuff.

Since when it is boiled down, a lot of Brexit is about money, or at least with the disturbance caused already it will definitely be about money. Hammond or others that are 'treasury aware' would be a practical choice.
They at least would have a grip of how fucked the UK is going to be.
Osborne (?) was proclaimed as spouting 'project fear' with his financial predictions, which are gradually coming into fruition.
The problem is finding someone that actually understands the reality but can be the 'bright face' to pull off what will need to be a lot of balancing acts simultaneously.

Thanks Louise I just hope there are more sensible ones like you out there but that they are just quiet.

Shame about Amber but understandable I’m not sure Boris has a massive majority so he could be skating on thin ice.

If you want to learn more about Rory give Political Thinking a listen you can get it as a podcast on BBC he really is an interesting guy and I say that not as a Tory voter. The Steve Baker one is interesting too try and understand where he’s coming from.

I also thought Hammond would be the best choice if competence and experience are allowed.

He at least would know where our money comes from and what could stop some of it coming in.

As with people, nations who become skint have fewer and worse choices than those who are well off.

However, Cameron showed the future by saying he decided to become PM because he thought he would be "rather good at it"

He was horribly wrong.
However, his fellow privileged Old Etonian and Oxford Bullingdon hooligan, Boris, has even more arrogance and even less competence

Someone with Angela Merkel's skillset perhaps?

Agree Hammond sensible choice complete with spreadsheets. Not sure we are in the realms of using the world sensible and Tory party in same sentence at the moment though.

1tis I think people were quick to put Merkel and may in same bracket but they are very very different. Merkel is known as ‘Mutti’ and did know how to compromise May not so much. So yes we definitely need someone along the Merkel mould to dig us out.

Phil Hammond appears in touch with reality and to be an actual Conservative as opposed to a wrecking ball or Brave New World type. No doubt he has his negative side but I would at least not feel embarrassed to have him as PM.

In the spirit of Farage I add this quote from literature's anti-semite, Hilaire Belloc:

'I had intended you to be
The next Prime Minister but three.
The stocks were sold, the Press were squared,
The middle class was quite prepared;

But as it is, my courage fails.
Go out and govern New South Wales!'

OK, Brexit is cool and normal:
From the Independent.
{Noah’s Ark replica owners sue insurance company over rain damage}

The problem with that Led by Donkeys breastfeeding poster is that there are many unreconstructed males (and females) who agree with it. Loads. They're already taken down the one about gay rights (I think it was that?) for that reason.

As I have said previously, the LedBydonkeys campaign is a bit too clever and subtle for some and can be 'read' the wrong way.
Trying to convince a 'congregation' that clap and sing along to slogans that 'democracy is dead' and the like will not work through subtlety.

SwedishEdith
I have never been 'reconstructed'. Am I eligible for a replacement body sometime as taking 40 years off would be good.

Swedish that’s what I thought Same with the Widdecombe one.

The four men behind the nationwide Brexit billboard phenomenon finally reveal their identities – in the pub where it all began
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/led-by-donkeys-reveal-identities-brexit-billboards-posters

Pandering to the far right by not daring to publish dissenting views means their views take over by deefault.

They fill the vaccuum

The Overton Window gets dragged even further to the right

https://newsthump.com/2019/05/24/new-worst-prime-minister-in-history-set-to-be-in-place-for-july/

A new Worst Prime Minister in History will be in place by July of this year.

The new Worst Prime Minister in History will replace Theresa May, the current Worst Prime Minister in History,
who replaced the previous Worst Prime Minister in History, David Cameron.

Hammond didn't even have the political nouse to do anything to support TM's "vision for the JAMs" as Chancellor. PMSL that anyone thinks he would make a good PM.

Compare and contrast with DC and GO. DC could sell the "vision" and GO had the gumption to deliver it (I am no fan of either and sincerely wish both had been as incompetent as TM/PH - then there wouldn't be so much damage to undo)

I Breastfed all 3 of my DC for over a year. I actually don't have a problem with the NF quote on the poster. The difficulties usually arose when people started making ostentatious "allowances" to be seen to be paying lipservice to regulation instead of just leaving me in peace to feed my baby. Therefore for me this and other posters (and Marr interview) just stoke the narrative that hyperbole and out of context quotes are being used to demonise NF.

Same vein as JC smears, bumbling BoJo narrative etc etc. It's almost like some "activists" think the general public are all just turned 18 year olds who have never lived or watched the news.

Yes, it was the Anne Widdecombe one. They've stopped using it. They're too subtle for lots of people - the people whose minds they're trying to change.

This is more effective - there's a genuine, immediate revulsion response. Widdecombe and Clare Fox would work as well.

Swedish. Even less effective imho. Very few people confuse their sex life with their choice for PM.

Also agree with Bigchoc that PM is a job where personal peccadilloes are frequently irrelevant.

Europe Elects @europeelects
UK, electoral history:

Turnout European elections

1979: 32.4%
1984: 32.6%
1989: 36.4%
1994: 36.4%
1999: 24.0%
2004: 38.5%
2009: 34.7%
2014: 35.6%
2019: 38.0% (Number Cruncher Politics UK projection)

#EP2019 #EUelections2019 #EuropeseVerkiezingen

BBC Monitoring
‏*@BBCMonitoring*

5/ "In three years in power, the leader has shown herself to be not just blind to reality, but narrow-minded, incapable of listening, devoid of even the slightest conviction regarding the EU, and incessantly acting in an inopportune manner" - France's Le Monde

Pretty accurate.