Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

{In some cases, we over implement the rules, i.e. we put a stricter interpretation on what they are.}
Now you mention that, I felt this to be a minor 'irritation' years ago.
Didn't really bother me just noted it as curious. Maybe if UK 'authorities' had chilled a bit or at least interpreted in a better way the feeling wouldn't have been there.

I don't actually think the Germans necessarily work harder, but I do think they work smarter. I also feel that they have better managers. Nor are they afraid of workers councils.

{ There must be places where there's 80% BP support which is scary.}
Since there has been no visible effort to curtail or even investigate the lying and manipulation of the referendum who is to say that these polls are in any way accurate?

In some cases, we over implement the rules, i.e. we put a stricter interpretation on what they are

Completely agree

I reckon this is down to ‘whatever they do we can do better’ attitude

I can't make head nor tail of that Best for Britain thing, woodpigeons. I don't get what you're supposed to do with the 'sliders' and it seems to be saying that the SNP is going to get 38% of the vote in Yorkshire & the Humber.

Precisely what I was about to write - apparently the SNP are gonna storm it in Yorkshire ... might come as news to them!

{but I do think they work smarter.}

This, combined with the willingness to invest in both technology and people with an understanding that 'happy and healthy workers' produce better results.

{SNP is going to get 38% of the vote in Yorkshire & the Humber.}

You obviously haven't heard of the land grab and that they are going to install the Scottish border from the Watford Gap northwards.

we over implement the rules
Which ones?
Britain's appalling recent record on H&S and Human Rights and Equalities Law has lead directly to Grenfell and so much else

@dannydorling
The lowest support for the Brexit party is among those households in the UK living on the lowest of incomes. The greatest support in found among those households with a household income of £40,000 a year or more; but, even among, them the Conservatives now poll in fourth place...

EU election breakdown by household income level:
[£0-£20k] Lab 29% BXP 25% LD 12% Con 11% Grn 10% UKIP 5% ChUK 3% DUP 2%
[£20k-£40k] BXP 29% Lab 25% Con 16% LD 8% Grn 7% SNP 4% UKIP 4% DUP 3% ChUK 2%
[£40k+] BXP 32% Lab 23% LD 12% Con 11% ChUK 8% Grn 6% UKIP 3% SNP 3% DUP 1%

Source: Survation, 8-9 May.

That is certainly strange Loon.
I only checked my area which seemed pretty much as expected.
I haven’t heard from Remain Voter either but expect them to say LD.

{we over implement the rules}
It feels a long time ago and is shrouded in the general bollocks that the 'popular' papers would print and it was before H&S really took off.
Unless you were really involved it was difficult to know what the truth was.

Yes before people understood the benefits of H&S (some still don't) it was easy for people like the Tax Payers Alliance to tell them terrible EU was restricting their working hours (i.e they would be poorer) or making them wear a hard hat for construction which meant their pay would be reduced while the 'safety gear' was sorted

Now it is taken as how it should be and a lot of people are happy to say UK invented it! It seems to be an even split now between those who think of H&S as an irrelevance (managers now wanting cheaper insurance and workers having got used to fairer hours) and those who are convinced we are the only ones enforcing them properly.

FPTP with multiple largeish parties

Britain Electss@britainelects*

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 29% (+1)
BREX: 24% (+3)
CON: 22% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
CHUK: 3% (-1)
GRN: 3% (-3)
UKIP: 2% (-2)

via@OpiniumResearch, 14 - 16 May
Chgs. w/ 8 May

Electoral Calculus seat predictor gives
Labour No Overall Majority ...... LAB 301, BREX 24, CON 226, LDEM 22

I tried various scenarios with the seat predictor
I wonder if LAB & CON HQs have been doing this and crapping themselves ....

1. Using the % votes predicted for EP elections (I know, should be v diffent to GE)

It gave Farage overall majority 282 ..... LAB 80, BREX 466, CON 0 (think Canada ?)

2. I then deducted 14% from BREX and 1% each from GRN & LDEM and divided the 16% among CON & LAB, so BREX=LAB = CON = 20%

That gives Labour No Overall Majority ...... LAB 240, BREX 71, CON 220

3. Next, taking equally from CON & LAB, I set BREX=24, CON=LAB=17%

That gives Farage overall majority 56 ...... LAB 150, BREX 353, CON 34

==> BREX has to beat the other 2 parties by a lot to win a GE
but FPTP gives a very steep curve of increasing returns for them if CON collapses, i.e. replacement by BREX

Over implemented rules: I can't remember the details but my DB talks of one to do with the working time directives as applied to transport. Our Government could have stated the their case, but chose not to. I believe there was also one about holiday insurance. Then again, think about how Boris Johnson goes on about not being allowed bendy bananas, and we are told we can't have gnarly vegetables because of EU rules. We know Johnson was lying, and we go to markets in France and Spain and see the said gnarly vegetables, so it's much more likely that our supermarkets choose not to stock them, and is nothing to do with the EU.

{ and those who are convinced we are the only ones enforcing them properly.}
Half of France seem to be wearing HiVis jackets and hardly any are protesting. Most cyclists for example.

....people with an understanding that 'happy and healthy workers' produce better results.

Which is what Mr Richer of Richer Sounds has just said, as he takes a back seat and implements a worker ownership scheme. Some longstanding employees will be in line for a very handsome bonus. It's also what the old Quaker firms used to know.

There's a thread on here with a Band 5 nurse on who is effectively being told by self confessed Managers within NHS to suck it (being passed over for promotion by far junior male colleague) up or she'll look like she isn't as passionate as she should be and will be forever eyed with suspicion if she complains . That says a lot about our productivity if you ask me.

I’m still undecided about which remain party to vote for on Thursday. I can’t previously remember being this unsure this close to polling.

{understanding that 'happy and healthy workers' produce better results.}
Although it is difficult to quantify but the places like Google HQ in the USA where they had games rooms and whatever. It would be interesting to know if it really does boost productivity as a whole.
Where I worked the pay was pretty poor but when a major consignment was shipped the managers would declare a half day on a Friday and several hundred quid behind the bar at a local pub. An extra 20p/hour would have been better mind you!

There are lots of studies showing better productivity from healthy/happy workplaces - am off out for a couple of hours but can link when I return.

LDs have the most traction so prob best to make your vote count.
(I could see Remain Conservatives and the more middle ground Labour go CUK.). I’ve never been tempted to vote Green, despite originally joining Liberals (before the GP existed) partly because they were the best on the environment. I still think there are many in the GP who, despite having the best of motives, don’t understand the science properly nor grasp the practicalities, so are unrealistic in their proposals. However I did hear Jonathan Bartlett making some good points on QT recently - but how can one reconcile a scientific understanding of climate change with the anti scientific belief that men can actually become women and vice versa?

best i was in cardiff so it must have been LA specific I always forget there was no all wales policy in those days as no Welsh assembly

Right now the biggest problem for the UK is Brexit. Greens are too small to make a 'party' and are detracting from LibDem who while being a way off perfect at least have a possibility of making a good god of things.
I am afraid Green and others with a high 'climate' ideology are in the 'luxury' bracket, much of what they would like, as honourable as it is, is just too far removed from the way the currently works. Absolutely worth working for but reality of 'now' needs to take precedent.
Banning fossil fuel vehicles, OK so how does food get to shops, people get to work etc, you have to reorder the whole of society and persuade the poor economies to join in.

That 'd' shouldn't be in there!

granny, yes, I googled and it was 1988 that the last grammar in Wales closed. Thank goodness for the Welsh assembly.

BCF there's a closer to home example than Canada. Look at how quickly the SNP replaced Labour in Scotland post 2014. Then look how sensitive their vote share. 6 seats in 2010, 56 seats in 2015 and 35 seats in 2017.

As you say the sea change happens when the protest party starts mopping up votes equally from Labour and Conservative. This effect was exacerbated in 2015 by the collapse of the LibDems. The LibDem plus Labour vote share atm makes Brexit Party doing an SNP look unlikely. However what gives pause for thought is that Brexit Party plus Con is polling consistently above 40% which implies IF the Tories go with their membership to hard Brexit they will win hands
down. This is even more likely as Labour defections to LibDem may be more permanent than Conservative defections to Brexit Party.