Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

I live in area which is left leaning, more left than centre left I’d say, and voted remain. There are many professionals and highly educated, thoughtful people in the work and social circles I mix in. Lots of the people I talk to have jumped on the climate/extinction resistance movement big time. It was all people could talk about a couple of weeks ago at a social gathering when discussion turned to current affairs. I kept pointing out that we need to sort Brexit out because otherwise the economy is fucked and, if the economy is fucked, we won’t be able to invest in the new technologies needed to address the global climate challenge. Likewise, we don’t have a functioning government or parliament just now and those kind of changes require policy and legislative changes. Also, people whose lives are worsened by a fucked economy won’t have the luxury of worrying about saving the planet, they’ll be too busy trying to survive. Call me cynical, but that whole movement seemingly coming out of nowhere and Labour jumping on board the bandwagon just screams “SQUIRREL!” to me. It seems like a massive distraction when our democracy has hit the buffers and our government is utterly dysfunctional. We cannot save the planet if we don’t get our government up and running and functional again sharpish.

Best I'd take a guess at Monmouth being one of the last to go. I must google and check

I've designed a double sided EU elections flyer which you may like to consider printing / sharing online

Front page:
imgur.com/a/CotZ4uN

Back page:
imgur.com/a/ZxMYuQZ

Development of the contents and intentions:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3589281-I-made-an-EU-elections-flyer-please-feel-free-to-print-share-thanks

It could probably be tweaked quite easily in MS Paint or a graphics program if you want to customise. Currently A4 aspect ratio.

PMK. Thanks Red.
I think I've decided I'm going Green in the Euro elections (London).

Oh God the Maybot has had another good idea.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-theresa-may-set-to-make-bold-offer-in-final-bid-to-get-mps-to-finally-back-her-a4145671.html

Was interesting to read the thread yesterday about whether Indyref No voters intend to change their vote due to Brexit. They all predicted very extended, difficult
and disruptive and expensive negotiations with Westminster, by an SNP dominated Scottish government which is already messing up education and the NHS in Scotland. Many many years of economic pain.
I will be voting LibDem in the EU elections.

pmk

So she wants to raise the idea of using technology on the Irish border again.
I thought it had been already agreed that, if and when such technology exists, it could be used.
Doesn’t make me too excited about the rest of the content of her ‘bold
offer’.

Am I the only one fantasising about moving Drogan from GoT into Parliament? At least it's useful for something that way, as there's no actual business taking place....

{ ‘bold offer’.}

It means the same text as last time but the typeface has been set to bold.
Maybe 'comic sans' would look nicer but 'wingdings' probably sums the situation up better.

In the 1950s I went to primary school in a lower middle class/working class area of Manchester.
Think private Victorian and 1930s housing and big council estate.
We were streamed at age 6 after infants. Looking back it seems more like social cleansing than anything else. I only knew one girl in my class of 38 pupils who lived in a council house. There was no movement between the two classes.
It was expected that all, or nearly all, of the top class would pass the 11 plus. I don’t know if the other class even took it. I don’t remember them being there when we were marched in crocodile to the high school to take it.
It wasn’t unusual for schools to decide which pupils would take it. DH went to a small rural school and he was one of only two who were coached and entered for it.
My secondary grammar school was in a different very rural area with a very big catchment area. The secondary modern school was on the same site but we had nothing to do with them except for the very rare sporting event.
The grammar school was streamed into five forms.
The top stream was expected to take A levels and hopefully go to university.
Some of the stream below might do so if their O level grades were good enough. They could go to teacher training college though as that only required 5 O levels.
Teachers complained to my form about having to teach the other 3 forms. Especially the ‘bottom’ ones.
They were expected to leave school at 15 after taking O levels or even before if they preferred. There was no other provision for them.

You obviously haven't heard of the land grab and that they are going to install the Scottish border from the Watford Gap northwards.

Whoop! I'm happy with this! 😁 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Hello all, I signed up with remainvoter but the recommendation may not come in time for my postal vote. Does anyone know where i can find out what to vote on Thursday? I'm Eastern region.

thethethe - I posted once on that thread (answering the OP with a description of a friend's journey from No to Yes as a result of Brexit) but can't be bothered going back on to explain that a) an independent Scotland is not obliged to have a SNP Government because we would be able to vote for who the fuck we liked in the subsequent elections and b) they are conflating membership of the Eurozone with membership of the EU even before you get into the arguments about the potential size of the deficit and why it exists Personally, I'm looking forward to a re-invented Scottish Labour Party that I could consider voting for again

Others have made some of those points though

And maybe I've just been fortunate, but my experience of Scottish education via ds (as well as membership of school boards then Parent Councils) has been extremely positive. Like the EU, not perfect , but I've got no significant complaints I think ds got a brilliant foundation for learning at school - which, because he wasn't spoon and rote fed, had meant that he's coped well away from home in his 1st year at Uni.

It's ridiculous how much head space I'm giving to which remain party to vote for when the Tories and Labour will interpret anyway.
#tryingnottofeelpowerless.

*any way they want ()

Reading that link @Ellie56 it's just extraordinary that they will "begin discussions on Monday"

We were streamed at age 6 after infants. Looking back it seems more like social cleansing than anything else.

My own experience at the same time, in probably a similar community but in a small market town. If you weren't in the A stream/top class your chance of passing the 11+ was nil. I recall a friend who came top of the class in the B stream, when she was nine/ten and another friend and I saying most emphatically that she had to get her parents to go up to the school to get her put up into the A stream to have a chance of passing the 11+. I don't know whether that happened because I left the district. Guess what the situation was in the new market town? Exactly the same, rigid streaming with only the top class having a chance of passing.

I believe that they conducted an experiment when my school went comprehensive - they weren't sure whether they could get the system in place for a certain year, so the children took the 11+ anyway. The schools were told the results, but they kept them without looking at them, and formed their own judgements as to the chid's ability. They looked at who had passed the 11+ five years later, after O level/CSE, and I gather there were quite a few surprises.

DH moved house just when he had his 11+ results, so this apparently enabled them to tell him that he had received a good pass. He never really excelled at the new grammar school and at the end of his first year their the head expressed disappointment that he had expected better.

I could say a lot more but it's a Brexit thread, not an education one, but Theresa May's bright idea for education was to bring back grammars, when that idea was a 1930s solution imposed in the 1950s and 60s to the detriment of thousand of potentially capable pupils. This to my mind shows her complete lack of imagination and vision.

Yes fluffy, I'd take a Scottish land grab too!

Yes, a Scottish land grab would suit me too. Either that or London, extended out to Oxfordshire and declared a city state.

Hi Nigella,

This is the most recent polling for the eastern region ()

The BXP’s 4th seat is gained with 9.975. If nearly all CHUK supporters vote LD instead, LD could take the last seat from BXP. (If the polling is accurate).

Nigella - I'm in the Eastern region, and per Stilltalks, I think the best option is for pro-Remainers to pile into LibDem. Obviously, a vote for them or Green or Change will count as a pro-Remain vote, but to actually grab an MEP seat away from Brexit Party, I can't see any alternative to LD.

Even if you hate the LD, then I just see this as "using" them for a clear message to Westminister. The candidates might as well be cardboard cutouts - as they will just be ciphers for the what voters want to happen in the Brexit process.

Westminster will still tell you that you voted for Brexit - or at least that will be their public statement, even if they are quietly shitting themselves behind closed doors.

The really annoying thing is that - if you took labours vote away, the greens and chuk and added it to the Lib dems - they then overtake Faragit's turquoise arrows. Now - admittedly - some of those labour votes might be from leavers, but even if only half the labour votes went to Lib dem - they would still be giving Nige a good run for his money.

I just wish everyone would pile behind the Lib Dems- no matter what (in the English regions). Make it a two horse race - and get the moderates out voting.

I saw something that said last EU elections only 36% of the electorate turned out to vote (genuinely can't remember if that includes me ) - and UKIP 'won' - because those who hated the EU were more likely to turn out and vote. And I can't help but notice that the vote to leave was 37% of the electorate. And Farage is (on best (worst) polls) polling at 34%. Those numbers are virtually identical. That really is the hard ceiling of brexit support. 30 something percent.
We need to get the other 60 odd out and we all need to vote the same way! They are not the majority - by a long way - but if we don't co-ordinate they still win.

(I'm not actually a Lib Dem voter, normally, but I'm getting quite evangelical about them at the moment)

Thank you all! LibDem it is, then. I did vote LibDem in the Locals, despite having never voted anything but Tory in the past. Just call me Mrs Heseltine!